I am pretty sure the Economist cover has been repeatedly mocked as counter-indicator for many years now.
I can see how someone who only read the covers and article titles, and didn’t read any of the actual content could come to that conclusion.
Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
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Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#62Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
Well, yeah, in fact the point is stronger. Economies are feedback systems and oscillate. Recessions are inevitably predicted every few years because recessions simply are inevitable every few years. And yeah, it seems likely (though obviously not certain) that we're due for another. There's nothing particularly notable here. Speculation markets got overheated[1], now they're correcting and as a side effect money ends…
I'm not sure oscillation is a good metaphor. It could be a random walk, which might appear periodic, but is not.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#63Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?
I think you should reconsider the position that inflation is a sign of a booming economy. It is an erroneous albeit common perception and perspective. Inflation, the fraud of increasing the number of IOU Currency tokens called {fill in your currency of choice} in circulation simply by copying them is the cause of increasing prices, not inflation itself. It’s a matter of misunderstood definition. An analogy is an arti…
found the goldbug. afaict inflation is great for indebted earners, bad for savers. Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded.
Sorry you can't predict the future of your stuff just by putting it in a contract. But nobody promised you that, and there are bigger problems to solve than the perfect autonomy of your resources. I guess your only hope is that the limited, motivated, holders of extremely large bags of capital will be able to move your regressive philosophy forward. Oh look that's what happening lucky you.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#64Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
As the saying goes, economists have predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions.
...And Nouriel Roubini is famous for predicting 8000000000*10^(uncountable infinity) of the last 3 recessions.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#65Disclaimer, I have no idea if this is even slightly logical, I'm not an economist. House prices have increased significantly above inflation for decades to the point of absurdity, many multiples of a households income. People in their 20s (and 30s) increasingly don't believe they will ever own a home. If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagna…
>If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagnant with no increase, would that bring them down in real terms without a "housing crash"? Could this be a "good thing" and does that even make sense?
It's still only part of the equation since interest rates are much higher now so mortgage payments are double what they were a year ago. So even if the home price isn't rising, the costs to finance it are.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#66Whenever somebody makes claims like this I do wonder whether they actually bet money on that
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#67When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.
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Zanny Minton Beddoes (the writer of that piece) has a degree in economics from Oxford, a masters from Harvard, worked for the minister of finance Poland, and has worked for the economist for the last 30 years.
She’s conducted surveys and covered policies across the world from South America to Moscow (all this per Wikipedia).
I think she’s well qualified to provide opinion, not sure if I’ll take it - but that’s the point of an opinion piece.
What have you done to qualify yourself for your job? Except write snarky, poorly written and ill contributing comments on this forum for the last decade?
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#68When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.
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The author is an Oxford- and Harvard-trained economist with work experience at the national and international level. Your comment is ridiculous, whether or not this prediction proves out. The author is qualified to make it.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#69Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
I'm certainly not well educated in finance - but having had my business crushed by the events of 08/09, I started paying a lot more attention to economics than I had previously. From what I can gather, I think part of what is happening is that "the can" keeps getting kicked further down the road. That is to say, we should have already been in or even through a recession. By postponing it, it's just going to be that much worse.
Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023
#70Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.
The exact timing is always tricky but I have seen the .COM bubble and the 2008 crash. In both it was pretty clear that the economy was in a huge speculative bubble that made no rational sense but the bubble was prolonged until there was no way forward anymore. The 2001 crash was bad, the 2008 crash worse and I think this one will be even bigger. We ran up huge deficits during good times, kept interest rates artificially low to keep things going. And most of the superstar businesses (unicorns) don't even know how to be a business that makes profits.