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Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

economist.com

11–20 of 281 posts

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#11

Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.

As the saying goes, economists have predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#12

Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.

Not at all. A global recession has not been strongly forecasted like this for a long time. Sure, anyone can make a prediction, and you will always find some people predicting both directions, but that doesn’t form a common consensus.

A likely recession does not mean that selling stocks is advisable either.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#13
post #5
post #2

'inevitable' yet precedes to list examples in geopolitics, economy and energy which are all the result of choices made by human beings. Let us not use language which describes economic recessions as force majeure - they are the result of human acts, human decisions, perhaps more strategic and pre-planned than comprised publishers like the Economist would have us believe

This is extremely nitpicking. Obviously human factors cause recessions, have you noticed that economics is entirely about human affairs? The Economist doesn't need to state this explicitly.

Economics is specifically the study of resource allocation decisions. That’s literally all an economy is, the sum of all resource allocation decisions.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#15

Hasn't it been inevitable every years? It seems like the media writes this headline every year. Anyone can find reasons for recession if you look hard enough. Who knows. I am not selling stocks.

Well, yeah, in fact the point is stronger. Economies are feedback systems and oscillate. Recessions are inevitably predicted every few years because recessions simply are inevitable every few years. And yeah, it seems likely (though obviously not certain) that we're due for another.

There's nothing particularly notable here. Speculation markets got overheated[1], now they're correcting and as a side effect money ends up more expensive to do "normal" activity too. Then we'll do it all over again until 2030 or whenever when we come back to write this kind of stuff as if it was a surprise.

[1] For lots of interacting reasons, I'm sure. There's good economics to be done to understand this stuff, but "ZOMG Recession" coverage is just tiresome.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#17
post #2

'inevitable' yet precedes to list examples in geopolitics, economy and energy which are all the result of choices made by human beings. Let us not use language which describes economic recessions as force majeure - they are the result of human acts, human decisions, perhaps more strategic and pre-planned than comprised publishers like the Economist would have us believe

The business cycle is inevitable under capitalism.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#19
Signs I look for of an impending recession:

Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#20
post #8

If it was truly 'inevitable' it would be priced in

Something being inevitable and everyone knowing that it's inevitable and everyone acting on that knowledge are three distinct things.

So which is it? And how have you acted look it?
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