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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#801

Post by xtian »

SyzygistSix wrote: post #421
xtian wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s your logic?

Russia will not have a sudden reversal in capabilities. China is not going to abandon its strategy of hedging its bets to tie itself to a sinking ship all of a sudden. Iran and Saudi Arabia will not have a sudden change of heart to adopt a completely opposite position. Zelensky is already to US liking and Ukraine has shown itself to be capable rather than on the verge of falling apart. Basically OP was positing a com…

But Russia is accomplishing their objectives, so there would be no reversal. Ukraine is holding on by pouring tens of billions of dollars worth of Western armaments into the conflict (which are coming slower and slower), not to mention the lives of servicemen.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#802

Post by fnands »

bsuvc wrote: post #335

1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in co…

> 1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis.

Don't know if this will pan out, but if it does it will probably be Deutsche Bank right?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#803

Post by randerson »

bloopernova wrote: post #271

One of the big cloud providers launches a chatGPT based infrastructure tool. Draw a diagram, get that infrastructure automatically generated. IaC engineers are laid off en masse. (EDIT: I am an IaC engineer who is learning Python and NodeJS as much as I can before this sort of thing is released in AWS.)

Thanks to Security teams, there will always be a human IaC expert validating whatever AI-based tools spit out.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#804

Post by ttyprintk »

SyzygistSix wrote: post #403
IIAOPSW wrote: post #360

Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me: -The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and training isn't that large. -Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular occupy this swee…

Most of these are pretty good, if not a big stretch. >First the plague, now the war, next the famine! I'm noting no predictions on this page regarding the Colorado River and the drought in the US West. Will the drought continue? Get worse? Could it cause a famine? Or just widespread adoption of efficient watering systems?

For the record, the National Weather Service predicts average snowpack in the headwaters of the Colorado.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#805

Post by ttyprintk »

fnands wrote: post #802
bsuvc wrote: post #335

1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in co…

> 1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. Don't know if this will pan out, but if it does it will probably be Deutsche Bank right?

Credit Suisse

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#806

Post by jessaustin »

hutzlibu wrote: post #123
jessaustin wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was there something ambiguous about destroying the most prosperous African nation?

Are you refering to Libya? If so, you mean that Gadaffi was a saint or something?

Sainthood is not the standard to which any politician is held.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#807

Post by ttyprintk »

eatmyshorts wrote: post #740

I have one about ChatGPT. ChatGPT ends up not being useful as a replacement for junior software developers. But ChatGPT does end up taking over middle management. It is more reliable, with better results than humans, at getting software updates from developers and communicating them with coherence to upper managers. Someone will use it to develop an Agile ChatGPT, then another with a Scrum ChatGPT, and then a third,…

Very good. I made a similar prediction years ago, yours is better.

I predict middle managers will rush to use one of these offerings, initially fantasizing about reduced dependency on supervising junior staff. I expect this to be boringly controversial, as some workplaces embrace it and in others, managers rely on it in secret. Retaining the vestigial office of scrum master or agile poobah will be a corporate status symbol to signal safety to VC.

On the top floor, AI systems styled to emit the messaging and maneuvering of, say, your company’s very own Elon Musk cutout, will be a useful fad for predicting political fallout. I predict AI will not compete with strong cultural networking among the kind of people who report to boards.

I expect stories will emerge where certain roles simply stand out as more committed to tending internally-important AI systems and services. For example, resume-vetting cutely predicts the kinds of applicants skilled in tending itself.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#808

Post by i_like_pie »

1. markets = s&p -15% by q2, crypto -40%, fed funds rate >=5%, energy best perf. sector

2. Ukraine war continues

3. Layoffs continue

4. Sbf goes to jail, SEC prosecutes 20+ high profile names

5. Twitter new CEO will be a VC

6. Large bipartisan push to get TikTok banned

7. AI: best hits will impress and change our lives for the better, >3B acq. of “unknown” ai company by F500 driven by FOMO, AI content floods the web, many societal issues raised

8. China will not attack Taiwan, GDP contracts

9. Zuck takes reality labs private, META +50%

10. Socio-economic unrest in Pakistan, China, UK, Africa

11. Step fxn biotech breakthrough: mRNA vaccine for X or crispr

12. Gaming: Riot continues to do well, MSFT/Blizz deal closes

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#809

Post by Gunnerhead »

cscurmudgeon wrote: post #772
ashrafulla wrote: post #760

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://english.alarabiya.net/ <-- headquartered in Riyadh

You missed my point. Al Jazeera is a hyper progressive outlet that criticizes every other government but their own. So an ethical standard by Saudi Arabia will be like that.

But AJ is Qatari, not Saudi.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#810

Post by zirgs »

bsuvc wrote: post #335

1. We will learn that one or more traditional banks have taken on cryptocurrency exposure and will need to be bailed out to prevent another financial crisis. 2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in co…

> 4. Year of Linux desktop!

Steam Deck is the best gaming console that I've owned.

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