Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

You missed my point. Al Jazeera is a hyper progressive outlet that criticizes every other government but their own.

So an ethical standard by Saudi Arabia will be like that.

> Of course theyre happy, whats your point

I'd guess it's more the stories of the Russians raping and torturing them that is making it so obviously unambiguous that the Ukrainians are the good guys.

Yes, Signal and Telegram were brought up during WhatsApp privacy changes "scandal" and to this day it is the largest IM. So nerds will go there but mainstream adoption will take years if ever.

1. The economy will continue to stay somewhat flat. There will not be any major recession, but also no miraculous overnight recovery. Inflation will drop slightly, but it will remain higher than targets. Interest rates will hover around the current values. Home prices will continue to drop, but folks waiting for a "market correction" to get their first property will still not buy.

2. Crypto market will continue to stay flat. Maybe some more exchanges go under, but even if they do, new exchanges will spawn replace them. There will be more "breaking news", but all of it is a re-make of a piece of news that already happened in a different form during 2010-2022.

3. Many startups will either close business or get acquired at bargain prices by competitors. Some will make sense ("can't believe anyone invested in that") while others will be complete surprises and somewhat disrupt the day-to-day life.

4. Most Bay Area companies and startups will focus their hiring to either some of the newer tech hubs across the US or abroad (particularly Europe) and completely halt hiring in the Bay Area. All of these companies will be fully-remote or somewhat-remote. Because the average tenure is 2-4 years, and because families take longer to uproot, it will take until 2025-2027 to actually see the Bay Area population start decreasing. Companies that will still hire in the Bay Area will be remote-unfriendly.

5. Machine Learning achievements will continue to show up at a similar pace as throughout 2022. More and more companies will pop up to repackage these technologies into well-marketed consumer-facing services - logo generators, fiverr replacements, blogspam filters, search engines, language translators, coding mentors, etc.

6. "Impersonal social media" - TikTok, YouTube, Twitter - where you do not personally know the content creator - will continue to grow in popularity, leaving behind an even bigger need of "personal social media" - where you keep in touch with people that you actually know. Maybe some company, either existing or new, will fill in that gap. Maybe not.

More immediately (2023-2024):

Housing bubble in major U.S./Canada cities will 'collapse'. Not catastrophically so, but prices will begin to ease as the city centers become less relevant. Hardest hit will be owners of office real estate, as it becomes apparent white-collar industries are being gutted from both sides: remote work/offshoring results in less need for office real estate, and automation/AI reduce staffing needs overall.

Cities built around blue-collar industry, as well as those which are more desirable to people working from home (cities with good weather, hiking/climbing/skiing access) will continue to see residential real estate prices rise.

Slightly more long-term (2023-2027):

More jobs will be automated, or heavily assisted by automation.

Most of these will be jobs which are done at a computer, not manual labor.

As more jobs are automated, but while we're still in a capitalist society, lots of people will be forced to survive by suing the AI makers.

E.g. AI does most of the coding, but laid-off programmers can sue the company with a claim that some code it was trained on was recognizable in the output, in a way that violates license.

Artists who no longer have work can similarly sue the AI art programs.

Courts will be increasingly sympathetic as we enter an economic and labor crisis where more is being produced, but people have less work. Humans having published work prior to 2022 (which was then used in AI training sets) will be crucial to keeping the masses of laid off people from starving as competition for blue-collar jobs becomes more intense. Only so many people can be Uber drivers and taskrabbiters.

Eventually, once the AI has written software and schematics for robots which can also automate the blue-collar jobs, the situation will be so out of hand that lawmakers will introduce UBI which affords people at least the bare minimum living wage, and take the money from the AI makers who are now the producers.

Surprisingly to everyone, driving will be one of the last things to get automated, due to the regulatory hurdles, liability, and lack of consensus on how the trolley problem should be solved.