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When do we have a scientific fact?

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Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#81
post #67

This article reminder me of this classic from 1994 by Steven Jay Gould, "Evolution as a fact and theory". [1] I adore SJG but this is one essay where I disagreed. Actually started the first day of a research design course in a pretty heated debate with the dead wood professor where this essay was the topic of discussion, he couldn't wrap his head around taking epistemological or practical issue with the label of scie…

Could you please elaborate on why you insist that the word has no use?

There are things that are merely probable, and there are things that are beyond doubt. Not using the word fact for the latter is useless pageantry if the "well, technically..." kind.

The existence of atoms is not merely probable, after millenia of debate the question is settled. Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it. This ability is very interesting from a bayesian perspective. It means we have a statement for which we can generate additional evidence at will. No matter what your threshold for evidence needed is, it can be met.

Before the scientific revolution, facts like this used to be fairly trivial: The ground and the sky exist. That kind of stuff. The enormous explosion of facts like this is a unique thing to our historical period. To forgot the obvious natural word for this serves one purpose: It makes communicating scientific insight harder.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#82
post #65
post #28

The article portrays Popperian falsifiability as a negative thing, when in fact it is exactly the kind of defining criterion that the author is hunting for. Except it is a criterion of a scientific _theory_ , not a fact derived from it; because the natural sciences are entirely empirical disciplines (today), theories can only be _disproved_ , not proved, by experiments. Progress - in the form of convergence towards t…

Is Popperian falsifiability itself falsifiable?

No, but being a logical rather than empirical construct that doesn't matter. Is 1+1=2 falsifiable?

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#83
post #81
post #67

This article reminder me of this classic from 1994 by Steven Jay Gould, "Evolution as a fact and theory". [1] I adore SJG but this is one essay where I disagreed. Actually started the first day of a research design course in a pretty heated debate with the dead wood professor where this essay was the topic of discussion, he couldn't wrap his head around taking epistemological or practical issue with the label of scie…

Could you please elaborate on why you insist that the word has no use? There are things that are merely probable, and there are things that are beyond doubt. Not using the word fact for the latter is useless pageantry if the "well, technically..." kind. The existence of atoms is not merely probable, after millenia of debate the question is settled. Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it. This ability is very…

> The existence of atoms is not merely probable, after millenia of debate the question is settled. Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it.

Except atoms aren't atomic: they can be further subdivided. In the original sense of the word, we still don't know whether there are atoms.

> It means we have a statement for which we can generate additional evidence at will. No matter what your threshold for evidence needed is, it can be met.

Reading the same book over and over again only gives you evidence about what the book says, not whether the words in the book are true. Likewise, performing an experiment over and over again only gives you evidence about what the experiment does, not any models that generalise its results (beyond the marginal, diminishing-returns "we're pretty sure this experiment's results match up").

Nothing is ever beyond doubt; only beyond reasonable doubt.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#84
post #81
post #67

This article reminder me of this classic from 1994 by Steven Jay Gould, "Evolution as a fact and theory". [1] I adore SJG but this is one essay where I disagreed. Actually started the first day of a research design course in a pretty heated debate with the dead wood professor where this essay was the topic of discussion, he couldn't wrap his head around taking epistemological or practical issue with the label of scie…

Could you please elaborate on why you insist that the word has no use? There are things that are merely probable, and there are things that are beyond doubt. Not using the word fact for the latter is useless pageantry if the "well, technically..." kind. The existence of atoms is not merely probable, after millenia of debate the question is settled. Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it. This ability is very…

"Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it"

Not everyone can perform an experiment to verify it. Hell, even those that can, can't perform an experiment to verify it. Maybe you just imagined that you performed the experiment.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if climate change turns out to be a hoax and we made the world better for nothing?

If climate change turns out to be wrong, nevermind a deliberate hoax, it would result in incalculable damage to the reputation of the entire scientific community for the next century.

As it should be. See how much they're sticking out their necks, and perhaps take this as seriously as they are?

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#86
post #67

This article reminder me of this classic from 1994 by Steven Jay Gould, "Evolution as a fact and theory". [1] I adore SJG but this is one essay where I disagreed. Actually started the first day of a research design course in a pretty heated debate with the dead wood professor where this essay was the topic of discussion, he couldn't wrap his head around taking epistemological or practical issue with the label of scie…

There are two worlds colliding here. The scientific world is primarily oriented towards finding stable consensus truths that are independent of individual bias. The political world is primarily oriented towards persuasion and behaviour modification - either for personal gain, or (more rarely) to promote fairness, equality, and perhaps even opportunity. To politicians, scientific facts are only one of many available t…

You forgot that you also convince the people who oppose your message, that it's the other, also very undesirable group that is actually responsible for your message.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#87
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

International scientific consensus, in the past, had a man murdered for proving the earth orbiting the sun.

No it didn't. The Church was not a scientific body. The basis for their beliefs was not the scientific method, but faith in a literal interpretation of Scripture. Actual international scientific consensus (meaning, the consensus of actual scientists) has never had anyone murdered, if for no other reason than "science" has no body equivalent to the Church empowered or capable to do so, but certainly not for proving a…

> Actual international scientific consensus (meaning, the consensus of actual scientists) has never had anyone murdered,

Scientific racism and the various eugenics movements say hello.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#88
post #81
post #67

This article reminder me of this classic from 1994 by Steven Jay Gould, "Evolution as a fact and theory". [1] I adore SJG but this is one essay where I disagreed. Actually started the first day of a research design course in a pretty heated debate with the dead wood professor where this essay was the topic of discussion, he couldn't wrap his head around taking epistemological or practical issue with the label of scie…

Could you please elaborate on why you insist that the word has no use? There are things that are merely probable, and there are things that are beyond doubt. Not using the word fact for the latter is useless pageantry if the "well, technically..." kind. The existence of atoms is not merely probable, after millenia of debate the question is settled. Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it. This ability is very…

This is an excellent comment! And this is a *very* strong threshold to reach:

> No matter what your threshold for evidence needed is, it can be met.

I'm fearful of mentioning any specific current scientific controversy, but it seems to me that many of the current politically charged topics fail to meet this very strong threshold.

I guess I'm thanking you because while I had an intuitive sense for this, I didn't know this specific wording of "you can meet any threshold for evidence".

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#89
post #81
post #67

This article reminder me of this classic from 1994 by Steven Jay Gould, "Evolution as a fact and theory". [1] I adore SJG but this is one essay where I disagreed. Actually started the first day of a research design course in a pretty heated debate with the dead wood professor where this essay was the topic of discussion, he couldn't wrap his head around taking epistemological or practical issue with the label of scie…

Could you please elaborate on why you insist that the word has no use? There are things that are merely probable, and there are things that are beyond doubt. Not using the word fact for the latter is useless pageantry if the "well, technically..." kind. The existence of atoms is not merely probable, after millenia of debate the question is settled. Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it. This ability is very…

The atomic model is certainly beyond a significant level of doubt. Surely it is not totally beyond question however. There remains a very small chance that an alternative model of the universe is consistent with the experiments you have in mind, and better explains the outcomes of other (as yet unperformed) experiments.

Re: When do we have a scientific fact?

#90
post #81
post #67

This article reminder me of this classic from 1994 by Steven Jay Gould, "Evolution as a fact and theory". [1] I adore SJG but this is one essay where I disagreed. Actually started the first day of a research design course in a pretty heated debate with the dead wood professor where this essay was the topic of discussion, he couldn't wrap his head around taking epistemological or practical issue with the label of scie…

Could you please elaborate on why you insist that the word has no use? There are things that are merely probable, and there are things that are beyond doubt. Not using the word fact for the latter is useless pageantry if the "well, technically..." kind. The existence of atoms is not merely probable, after millenia of debate the question is settled. Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it. This ability is very…

> The ground and the sky exist.

Those are directly observable. "Fact" stands in for an "observation", or maybe a repeated/repeatable, perhaps standardized, observation. (The sky is really just the way the atmosphere appears from a certain vantage point, so if you really drill down I'm not sure what saying sky itself exists actually entails, but I digress).

> Everyone can perform an experiment to verify it.

Sure! But in the modern scientific paradigm the purpose of that experiment would be an attempt at falsification. This is absolutely critical to the underpinnings of science — anything that is inferred from observations could be falsified at any time, so it doesn't really make sense to allow a secondary inference — a hypothesis or theory — to be linguistically elevated to fact, which most people would take to mean something that is concretely true. I can understand using fact to refer to a primary observation, which is where fact seems a natural word. I'd still argue that observation is a more apt word, especially as they often involve instrumentation or cognitive bias and are rather subject to change.

I'm not expecting atomic theory to be falsified anytime soon, don't get me wrong. But in only slightly less edge cases, like round vs flat earth or evolution vs creationism, terming the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt consensus a fact isn't doing any work. Either we agree, at which point it isn't really necessary anyway, or we don't agree, because someone in that collective we is a flat earther or creationist or similar, at which point just using the word fact isn't going to convince them anyway.

> It makes communicating scientific insight harder.

On less epistemological grounds and more pragmatically... I do a bit of sci comm of my primary research, some public facing research and outreach and have also spent plenty of time arguing scientific consensus topics on the internet with people who may or may not see them as such. Anecdotally, most of the time I see the word fact being bandied in the context we are discussing here it is used as a cheap stand-in for where some actual evidence or at least evidence of scientific consensus should have been. (Quite often it is invoked in an attempt to shore up something on shakier foundation or for which the invoker just isn't that well versed in and may not be correct about.) Just not doing much work.

Take the atomic theory example — to teach it the first time, depending on the age group you would just describe atoms, without ever needing to stop to call them factual, or you would provide historical experimental and other evidence of the existence of atoms and why they are a useful model for physics and chemistry. The word fact isn't necessary. If atom truthers emerge and you are trying to convince an undecided or torn public that they really do exist despite what the YouTube videos say, the word fact isn't going to help.

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