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Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

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Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#341

Post by Animats »

seydor wrote: post #280

after tesla deflates, who s next

First, the giant money-losers - WeWork, Uber, etc.

Tesla has an advantage in electric cars in that they don't make IC cars. The IC car companies seem to have a hard time transitioning to electric-first. Ford has a nice electric pickup truck, which costs far too much and isn't produced in enough quantity to meet demand. Their electric work van is OK, although it's an IC conversion. Ford will probably do both better in the next iteration. Both are selling well. Tesla has nothing in either category.

Ford's utterly boring E-Transit van will probably dominate the dull and boring world of company owned van fleets. Those spend their nights at the company parking lot and then go out and make local trips during the day. Ideal situation for charging, paid for by companies who know their gasoline costs.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#342

Post by kenhwang »

sidibe wrote: post #333
thrashh wrote: post #324

In my opinion, the valuation of Tesla was reasonable based on the fact that they were making strides in driving AI But at the time, humans did not yet know that FSD seems to be un-achievable with a non-general AI. At least with current techniques. People invested Tesla thinking something was possible and it turns out it isn’t. It happens

Everyone in the industry has always known Tesla wasn't close. And current AI seems to be good enough for what Waymo and Cruise are aiming for. Despite years of dominating the headlines, the problem is Tesla was investing way less in research than the leaders and then tying both hands behind their backs with no Lidar and HD maps. I also think not trying to really master even a geofenced area is making them kick the ca…

It was immediately obvious when Tesla was far behind traditional approaches for auto headlights, wipers, and self-parking and refused to deviate from their AI-only approach.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#343

Post by pifm_guy »

samwillis wrote: post #318
SkipperCat wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, if it was 2x or 3x Ford, I'd consider it a stronger buy. I think the real test will not be its P/E, but how the other big car companies debut their EV and driver-assist (or driverless) tech. It just feels like Tesla is still the market leader in that tech. If someone else beats them at that game, it would not be good for their stock price. But, conversely, if they stay on top, maybe that high valuation will sti…

The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring. There is no mass market call for it, it's not going to drive further growth. The only thing it may do is help maintain their position in the higher end of the market. They should have brought out another lower cost, smaller car by now. Why haven't they built a commercial van? Why is there no family MPV? The investment in FSD is ultimately a distraction that wa…

> The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring.

I agree, but for another reason...

There isn't much copyrightable or patentable in the self driving world. If someone makes a self driving car which is good enough to drive unsupervised, then it'll only be a year till all other manufacturers can do the same.

Being first won't buy them much.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#344

Post by VectorLock »

samwillis wrote: post #318
SkipperCat wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, if it was 2x or 3x Ford, I'd consider it a stronger buy. I think the real test will not be its P/E, but how the other big car companies debut their EV and driver-assist (or driverless) tech. It just feels like Tesla is still the market leader in that tech. If someone else beats them at that game, it would not be good for their stock price. But, conversely, if they stay on top, maybe that high valuation will sti…

The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring. There is no mass market call for it, it's not going to drive further growth. The only thing it may do is help maintain their position in the higher end of the market. They should have brought out another lower cost, smaller car by now. Why haven't they built a commercial van? Why is there no family MPV? The investment in FSD is ultimately a distraction that wa…

Real actual full self-driving would transform the auto industry and society. There is no "call" for it in the same way there was no call for air travel before the Wright brothers.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#345

Post by redox99 »

alkonaut wrote: post #312

How is Musk still allowed to be CEO? Serious question. Why don’t large shareholders demand some fresh blood?

Because actual shareholders read the financial statements, and therefore know how impressive Musk's performance has been so far, unlike people that literally haven't read further than the P/E.

Of course maybe Q4 and future quarters may change that, but there's no reason yet for shareholders to want another CEO.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#346

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

notahacker wrote: post #337
alzaeem wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then Eddie Howe moved to Newcastle and is on track to get them into the coveted Champions League spots... Is that a risk you wish to take?

But Elon has already moved on mentally and is currently on track to get Twitter relegated as well so I'm not sure we need to worry about what he could do with TSLA if it received unlimited funding from Saudi Arabia (hmm... more overlap in the analogy than I thought!) I don't think a regular CEO is going to be able to restore the reality distortion field that got TSLA overvalued by that much in the first place, but th…

> > I don't think a regular CEO is going to be able to restore the reality distortion field that got TSLA overvalued by that much in the first place, but they might at least look interested in selling cars.

Problem is that selling cars is a much tougher business than selling hope.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#347

Post by XorNot »

awacs wrote: post #80
fundad wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s because giving any “territory” to Russia justified see the pretense of ending war isn’t believable. If you don’t believe it condemns more people to be colonial subjects and the be redeployed to destroy Ukraine, I can see the confusion. A lot of tycoons aren’t commenting about the war at all if the fear how the judgement will affect business.

I don't think he even cares about Ukraine one way or another. He's just trolling the U.S. gov to "own the libs" as part of his "engagement strategy" for Twitter, as ridiculous as that is. Yes, alienate the entire user base for the company you're completely leveraged on (Tesla), in exchange for people who make on average less per year than your average Tesla costs.

I suspect it's both. Dude stays up late reading Twitter, gets a bit maudlin because he's alone and does the stoner "just thinking about the big questions maaan" thing.

Then he eventually sleeps, gets a bunch of "we're getting hammered by the public" emails when he wakes up and says "ah, but it's all engagement you see. This is my business genius."

Ignoring that the reason that sounds right to him is because it excuses him from the idea that he's ever done anything wrong.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#348

Post by _yb2s »

jemmyw wrote: post #235
antasvara wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Sure but at that point isn't it better to have a lottery to establish who gets to be POTUS instead of going through the motions of campaign expenses and constant media coverage just to shove down people's throats the idea that POTUS is much better and more qualified of a person than all the other citizens combined? The point is to find a person that is qualified and represents the will of the people. Electing a pres…

Actually a lottery system would be way more representative. The chances of a wealthy politician being chosen by random lottery are pretty small. A random person as president every term, that sounds like a better system to me, a person more likely in touch with the everyday problems and with far less political motivation. Plenty of reasons it wouldn't work like immediate corruption by companies wanting their own legis…

Leadership is challenging, and a very small percentage of the population have good leadership skills. A random person almost certainly won’t, and would be unable to do the job, whereas virtually every candidate in an election has already had a long career as an effective leader.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#349

Post by _yb2s »

skizm wrote: post #147
rubicon33 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think they are “insanely” undervalued?

#1 reason is because they're running WhatsApp, a 2 billion+ MAU service, and not monetizing it at all right now. Hypothetically a single text ad on the home screen would add billions to their bottom line overnight. #2 reason is because their core products have staying power. They've lived through twitter, snapchat, pintrest, a ton of other smaller social networks, and are still wildly profitable. I fully anticipate t…

If WhatsApp had ads, people would quickly move to an alternative without… it has historical inertia but don’ does not really offer anything unique. Fb is in the same situation, meta has almost zero intrinsic value and is just coasting on having been the first mover, which will dissipate over time.

Re: Tesla stock falls again, toward longest losing streak in more than 4 years

#350

Post by elkos »

jacquesm wrote: post #232
scifibestfi wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon: "Tesla stock price is too high imo"

Not for long at the present rate. Lucky for Elon that he sold a whole bunch last week.

Can he sell all of his stock while being a CEO of Tesla?
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