31–40 of 212 posts
One of our non unicorn competitors just raised ~200M in a niche where 100M+ seed rounds are usually something you raise after you become a unicorn in a series D or something. There still are crazy investors out there but they are crazy about more specific things than say three years ago.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
“Soon” is mid 2024 at the earliest. The start ups haven’t really even begun to trim fat. Big tech like amazon, meta, google will increase attrition targets in addition to actual layoffs. I could turn out to be wrong but id bet there’s many more waves of cascading pain before before things turn other way. Turning other way doesnt mean we immediately go back to excess hiring, empire building, lack of focus, free uber r…
Contrarian signal, for the sake of having a conversation: - I think we will experience a massive deflationary bust. The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. - By Summer 2023 we will experience YoY deflation and the Fed will cut then, or even sooner in anticipation to that. - We may see hikes pausing as soon as February, and cuts starting in the summer as a result of rapid disinflatio…
You can have stagflation: a recession with inflation. This is the economic boogeyman that literally every central banker has worried about for his or her entire career. Inflation is certainly not “over” - still running extremely hot relative to the last decade. Better than before the rate hikes, but by no means good or over.
With all industries are converting to software and every person on the planet moving towards owning a smartphone it surprises me that there’s an ongoing narrative that tech is collapsing.
Tech =|= software =|= start-up. Those three things are unrelated, and the tendency to equate tech with software let a lot of issues on all fronts in the last decade or so.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tech =|= software =|= start-up. Those three things are unrelated, and the tendency to equate tech with software let a lot of issues on all fronts in the last decade or so.
I disagree - tech _is_ software and it’s so ubiquitous that it’s essentially invisible.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Contrarian signal, for the sake of having a conversation: - I think we will experience a massive deflationary bust. The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. - By Summer 2023 we will experience YoY deflation and the Fed will cut then, or even sooner in anticipation to that. - We may see hikes pausing as soon as February, and cuts starting in the summer as a result of rapid disinflatio…
> The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. You can have stagflation: a recession with inflation. This is the economic boogeyman that literally every central banker has worried about for his or her entire career. Inflation is certainly not “over” - still running extremely hot relative to the last decade. Better than before the rate hikes, but by no means good or over.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The dominant narrative among investors and funds, at least in my domain (web3, tech investing) has been that "Fed will pivot soon, and the party will start anew". As long as that narrative remains strong, nobody will dump everything. New investment might stall, but no panic in the ranks. The real panic will set when the pivot does not happen. Or if it does happen and inflation comes roaring back, leading to a longer…
> Or if it does happen and inflation comes roaring back, This happened in the late 70s/early 80s. Volcker made this mistake and had to jack rates a second time leading to a second recession deeper and longer than the first. The current Fed has referred to this in recent speeches. I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. You can have stagflation: a recession with inflation. This is the economic boogeyman that literally every central banker has worried about for his or her entire career. Inflation is certainly not “over” - still running extremely hot relative to the last decade. Better than before the rate hikes, but by no means good or over.
Any normal time period would be considered “extremely hot” compared to the last decade+ of artificially low rates.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
“Soon” is mid 2024 at the earliest. The start ups haven’t really even begun to trim fat. Big tech like amazon, meta, google will increase attrition targets in addition to actual layoffs. I could turn out to be wrong but id bet there’s many more waves of cascading pain before before things turn other way. Turning other way doesnt mean we immediately go back to excess hiring, empire building, lack of focus, free uber r…
Contrarian signal, for the sake of having a conversation: - I think we will experience a massive deflationary bust. The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. - By Summer 2023 we will experience YoY deflation and the Fed will cut then, or even sooner in anticipation to that. - We may see hikes pausing as soon as February, and cuts starting in the summer as a result of rapid disinflatio…
This is as red herring as it can be. No remotely serious analysis of this war can take anything Kremlin says at face value.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
“Soon” is mid 2024 at the earliest. The start ups haven’t really even begun to trim fat. Big tech like amazon, meta, google will increase attrition targets in addition to actual layoffs. I could turn out to be wrong but id bet there’s many more waves of cascading pain before before things turn other way. Turning other way doesnt mean we immediately go back to excess hiring, empire building, lack of focus, free uber r…
Contrarian signal, for the sake of having a conversation: - I think we will experience a massive deflationary bust. The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. - By Summer 2023 we will experience YoY deflation and the Fed will cut then, or even sooner in anticipation to that. - We may see hikes pausing as soon as February, and cuts starting in the summer as a result of rapid disinflatio…
With all industries are converting to software and every person on the planet moving towards owning a smartphone it surprises me that there’s an ongoing narrative that tech is collapsing.
That generic software company was valued higher than entire industries that supply components that all hardware depends on. Tech isn’t collapsing. But valuations were and continue to be fuckin nuts for a lot of companies and are coming down to more reasonable numbers, which look like collapses.