Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#731

Post by userabchn » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 11:10 AM UTC

* There will be an increasingly severe recession. The response will greatly weaken the dollar, leading to a resurgence of inflation despite the sinking economy, a widespread feeling that America's best days are firmly behind it, and even greater animosity between those of different political persuasions.

* China will attempt to distract its population from their growing unrest, and to take advantage of a weakened America, by being more aggressive, including increasingly bold actions against Taiwan.

* Jeff Bezos will run for president on a platform of bringing courage and civility back to politics, as well as the promise of improving the economy. The severity of the recession will result in him being received with must less hostility than might have been expected.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#732

Post by arvinsim » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 11:33 AM UTC

Beldin wrote: post #87

- Full Self Driving will be "1-2 years away", much as it has been for the last 7 years - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been the last 40-60 years. - same for other "right around the corner" predictions - the world will change; most of that change is incremental; any real radical shifts will only be apparent with hindsight. - the superrich are going to get loads more superrich; the environment…

> - the superrich are going to get loads more superrich; the environment will be worse off; the poor and middle class will also be worse off.

I am worried about this since we know where this path leads.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#733

Post by gfaregan » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 11:38 AM UTC

I think that generative AI will keep getting significantly better. All the folks who keep saying it's not that good (which it isn't now I suppose) will start to sound like the folks who claimed that a computer could never become the go champion. The main issue raised is that it generates untrue things, which will be mitigated by some statistical/learned estimate on truthiness.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#734

Post by samhuk » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 11:48 AM UTC

unity1001 wrote: post #694

samhuk wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true, unfortunately. Early internet: As long as there was copper, you generally could exchange {protocol} (i.e. HTTP, FTP, POP3, ...) to {person} in {country}, quite freely. Current internet: Many egress and ingress connections are banned by {government agency} of {country}. Future internet: What parent comment was predicting: An increasing number of governments increasingly aggressively ban an increasing number…

> It's really not that hard to imagine, look at China or Russia or many other countries (e.g. Middle-East). Very aggresive white/blacklists of internet services. Part of the problem is people thinking that such countries are creating the fragmentation whereas it were the US companies who literally partitioned internet through algorithms, walled gardens, filters and blacklists. A national firewall can be circumvented…

> A national firewall can be circumvented by VPN and many do

FYI, this can be quite difficult for certain countries. Source: I have had friends who live in China and the Middle East, and VPN IP addresses are very quickly found and blacklisted. It's not a one-size-fits-all solution.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#735

Post by maerF0x0 » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 11:52 AM UTC

nine_k wrote: post #646

toyg wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the people are just poorer and more desperate Precisely because of this, globalization is destined to stay. It is the ultimate wet dream of capital: an endless reserve of cheap labor. Marx might not have got the prognosis right, but his diagnosis still holds.

If you look at China, it's exactly due to the West's insatiable appetite for cheaper labor that it has become more technically competent, and more well-off, especially the coastal cities. And this is why it now (for some years) ceases to be a pool of cheap labor: the living standards, while not near Western, have risen so much, the Western customers started finding the labor cost too high. Now it's the turn of Vietna…

> it has become more technically competent,

Let's not forget rampant corporate espionage, and deliberate IP infringement whereby designs used contractually to produce something, and then stolen to make knock offs as well.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#736

Post by pnt12 » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 12:06 PM UTC

- ChatGPT will get more popular, even among non techies, until OpenAI asks for payment.

- The AI hype will be revived, with lots of businesses trying to make money from it. Many will fail. Most likely to succeed is tech support, replacing half the jobs with AI, and human support serving as a backup.

- No big news in autonomous driving: the best AI advancements last year don't seem to help this at all.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#737

Post by pnt12 » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 12:09 PM UTC

- Progress with the war on Ukraine? Putin hasn't achieved his goals, and given the opportunity, Biden is happy to send money and weaken Russia.

In a more personal note, I really hope the war ends! The Ukrainians have suffered too much already from this invasion.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#738

Post by pnt12 » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 12:13 PM UTC

escapecharacter wrote: post #434

- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…

> Google will cancel the Search product

I wouldn't be surprised if they created a new experimental search product using GPT3: GAIgle.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#739

Post by pnt12 » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 12:26 PM UTC

yyyk wrote: post #133

Tech: * AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important for serious applications, and less serious applications could do with existing solutions - Third-world click/content-farms are surprisingly competitive economically. * Website rendering will edge a bit towards WebAssembly+canvas stacks, essentially the second coming of Flash - the need/des…

> AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important for serious applications.

When a competent specialist has doubts, they can say "I don't know",but ChatGPT is happy to say some non sense. This makes it very unreliable in a way we're not used to.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#740

Post by eatmyshorts » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 12:28 PM UTC

I have one about ChatGPT. ChatGPT ends up not being useful as a replacement for junior software developers. But ChatGPT does end up taking over middle management. It is more reliable, with better results than humans, at getting software updates from developers and communicating them with coherence to upper managers. Someone will use it to develop an Agile ChatGPT, then another with a Scrum ChatGPT, and then a third, initially a joke, but later accepted as the preferred one, the Waterfall ChatGPT.