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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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671–680 of 816 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#671
post #112
post #49

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into. 2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once wa…

> 1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. I'm 100% thinking the same, but I can't help myself think how this will be a disastrous change in some countries. For instance in Europe, fuel-based cars will be banned in 2030 and governments are active…

> > 1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative.

> I'm 100% thinking the same, but I can't help myself think how this will be a disastrous change in some countries. For instance in Europe, fuel-based cars will be banned in 2030 and governments are actively pushing for electric.

> I think it might create a huge shift on the electric vehicle market tho.

It will likely be disastrous, and when they try to jump to hydrogen it will probably be disastrous too.

In my mind it will be a similar climb down to what the governments diesel push was in the U.K. Disastrous...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#673
post #333

The US will see a slowdown in GDP growth, with a rate of 0.2%, while the Eurozone may experience a mild recession, with a rate of -0.1%. Inflation will remain high, particularly in Europe, though it will be lower than in 2022. 90% or more of the population of China will become infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants during the first quarter. Assuming infection fatality rate of around 0.1%, between 1 and 1.5 million…

This is so boring, it has very high chances to be true.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#674
post #49

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into. 2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once wa…

Not challenging your prediction, but what is the argument in favour of a CBDC in that scenario? How would it be marketed?

Something along the line of stimulus money, they could say something like when we gave free money to people during covid, and a lot was stolen. With CBDC's we can protect you, and stop the bad people, it's highly secure and can't be used for bad things. Without CBDC's we can't give you the free money you badly need, the people that argue against CBDC's are bad, they want to stop you feeding yourself and family with the free money we want to give you.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#675
post #49

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into. 2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once wa…

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into. The large automakers have been building compliance cars for a decade because they…

Isn't Toyota thinikg this, and has said so much already?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ARs are quite common which is why I predict someone with a GAYR-15 will stop one of these attacks in its tracks and people will stop associating them with right wingers exclusively.

It would be pretty out of vibe for someone to open carry an ar at a pride parade. In lots of jurisdictions it would incite violent police response.

It has definitely happened though. Not everyone who is socially anti-authoritarian is anti-self defense.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#678
post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw that too. I think Nivenkos wins the 2022 prediction prize.

I think Nivenkos did a better job than most, but actually I think alkonaut did a bit better from a quick skim: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29747250 * Nivenkos predicted that Omicron would create natural immunity to COVID, but I think alkonaut's prediction was more nuanced/accurate: that organized responses end and there are new variants that we live with (although there has been a greater level of immune esc…

Wow. alkonaut called it, very specifically in some cases. Boris Johnson's replacement having no charisma was the cherry on top. Where's alkonaut's 2023 predictions?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#679
post #217

It's not at all hard to see the end of the blockbuster-multiplex studio-cinema model. Surely it'll take a few years but this year is absolutely grim. The top 15 superhero movies all time or in other words those that earned above a billion (and that's without adjusting for inflation) are all pre-COVID. The 2022 box office is a complete mess: domestically you had seven movies which were making significant money and tha…

>The game is over. Cinemas need to find a new value proposition, a $100 movie night for a family of four is just not attractive any more. They can just watch Disney+. We went to Avatar 2 and tickets + snacks were over 200 dollars. I haven't been to movies for a while and it's hard to see the value prop.

Oh wow. How does that break down? How many people, how much were tickets?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#680
- Tiktok will be banned for US citizens.

- The Kansas City Chiefs will win the Super Bowl.

- NIMBYs in California will decisively lose battles and housing construction increases dramatically.

- The anti-car movement gets stronger.

- Chatgpt and related fads will fade.

- YoY Inflation will be ~3%

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