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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
391–400 of 816 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#392YC will be found to play a tangential role in some kind of fraud. My reasoning is that the stock market crash has exposed many fraudulent companies, YC and its associated partners/orgs lend an air of legitimacy that fraudulent groups will want to co-oped.
I think they’re going to blow their wad trying to take down a currently obscure debut novelist. They won’t do anything stupidly illegal because he isn’t actually that important to them, but the minor scandal will expose a few threads that the world will pull upon…
Y Combinator might not actually “go SBF” till mid year 2024 but they will start in 23… and out of sheer pettiness.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#393Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There will be a full-blown nuclear exchange between the US and Russia, wiping out most countries in the northern hemisphere in the process, reducing human population to 1/10th of the current level within a year, leaving only parts of South America intact I just wanted to give a nod to all the other countries in the southern hemisphere, since some also have a likelihood to miss out on a nuclear Armageddon: Australia…
I would be surprised if NZ didn't have any nukes pointed at it due to being the favorite spot of the western elite for survival arrangements. For Australia only a few coastal cities need to be taken out as well. I think some parts of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and maybe Uruguay stand a chance of being untouched, maybe South Africa as well.
It's my opinion that in a nuclear Armageddon, it wouldn't just be a free-for-all for every nuke to be let fly at every country currently at odds with each other. For example, if Russia and US trade nukes, I wouldn't expect all other WMD wielding country to just start attacking every country they're in poor standing with.
For Australia in particular, we don't have nukes so we shouldn't be on anyone's Mutually Assured Destruction ledger, and if not that then it would be an opportunistic nuke, the purpose of which I can't fathom. It would be better to take Australia by conventional means and keep the infrastructure in tact, since without our allies we have very little defense.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#394- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs) - The age of smart assistants is over - Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023) - The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, inn…
Year of the Linux again huh. Windows isn’t popular because it’s good, it’s popular because everyone knows it and Microsoft has good enough relations with every large organization in the world. MacOS is too expensive to seriously replace windows. Smart assistants will take off as chatGPT becomes commoditized, but it will look very different since you’ll have to pay for it.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#395Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.
While the city may be resilient ( and I'm a bit dubious about that) I think the economy outside of London is increasingly fragile as the past decade of under investment in infrastructure is really starting to bite. The levels of political instability also make the UK less attractive than it has been in the past and I can't see us getting through 2023 without at least one self inflicted constitutional crisis around ei…
The UK outside of London is already a relatively decrepit place. Tourists visiting London get an incredibly distorted view of the country.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#3961. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…
Globalization will always be too tempting to ignore when some countries have labor costs that are ten times lower than others. Large companies will continue to have enough political power to veto the laws that would be required to reverse globalization.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#397Earlier quoted context omitted.
Those are all weak reasons. Musk was correctly anticipating a major down turn in the economy for 2022. He was saying this at the end of 2021. Of course Tesla went down, everything else did as well. This is not a surprise. Fun fact he and Thiel also correctly anticipated the dotcom crash before it happened and pushed for the last round of PayPal funding to get done quickly at the peak as they expected it to be the las…
It's a bit weird to overpay for Twitter if you're expecting a downturn, no?
It’s not as weird when you consider he paid for a lot of it via Tesla stock. If you think both are going to plummet in value due to an imminent downturn, you’re really just swapping ownership in one for the other irrespective of the downturn. But it doesn’t seem like a genius plan of his – he wouldn’t have bothered fighting a lawsuit to get out of it if that was his plan all along.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#3981. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…
'''3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins again a large number of the new hires are either remote or are in other geographical areas where labour costs are lower.'''
That is something that I believe it is already happening. I have the feeling that Senior Developers wages are going up in my country no matter what happens on Twitter or Facebook.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#399- The world is quite different since the robotic uprising of 2023 - There is no more unhappiness - We no longer say 'yes'. Instead we say 'affirmative' - There is no more unethical treatment of the elephants - There's only one kind of dance - There are no more humans. Finally, robotic beings rule the world
> There are no more humans The humans are dead!?
> The humans are dead!?
No, they're used as batteries /s
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?
#400Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would be surprised if NZ didn't have any nukes pointed at it due to being the favorite spot of the western elite for survival arrangements. For Australia only a few coastal cities need to be taken out as well. I think some parts of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and maybe Uruguay stand a chance of being untouched, maybe South Africa as well.
It's my opinion that in a nuclear Armageddon, it wouldn't just be a free-for-all for every nuke to be let fly at every country currently at odds with each other. For example, if Russia and US trade nukes, I wouldn't expect all other WMD wielding country to just start attacking every country they're in poor standing with. For Australia in particular, we don't have nukes so we shouldn't be on anyone's Mutually Assured…
It was revealed that during Cold War there was a plan to nuke all cities over 100k inhabitants anywhere in the world so that no civilization can restart anywhere. For example, some nukes on Ukraine were pointed to China, a somewhat ally of the USSR at that time. I don't think Australia can rely on being non-nuclear to escape if SHTF.