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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#351

Post by laidoffamazon »

jansan wrote: post #321
jensneuse wrote: post #26

It's very interesting to go to last year's predictions ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 ) and search for the word "Russia".

This commenter was spot on with all his predictions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746942 I would like to know what he is predicting for 2023.

They were wrong on the midterms and Le Pen getting close (Zemmour flopped and Le Pen + Zemmour is 30% of the vote). The alleged economic conditions would have implied a red wave, but Democrats did significantly better than expected.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#352

Post by jhickok »

chx wrote: post #217

It's not at all hard to see the end of the blockbuster-multiplex studio-cinema model. Surely it'll take a few years but this year is absolutely grim. The top 15 superhero movies all time or in other words those that earned above a billion (and that's without adjusting for inflation) are all pre-COVID. The 2022 box office is a complete mess: domestically you had seven movies which were making significant money and tha…

>The game is over. Cinemas need to find a new value proposition, a $100 movie night for a family of four is just not attractive any more. They can just watch Disney+.

We went to Avatar 2 and tickets + snacks were over 200 dollars. I haven't been to movies for a while and it's hard to see the value prop.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#353

Post by guwop »

scanr wrote: post #41

- text and image generating AI is hugely disruptive to education and content generation - Inflation eases, stock market recovers - A Twitter alternative breaks through. - One of the big tech companies joins the fediverse (Microsoft most likely) - TikTok starts to falter - additional regulation, banning, lack of profitability and decline in popularity take a toll - A fully autonomous drone is used in combat (edit: sou…

... one of these is not like the other, lol

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#354

Post by vlunkr »

- declining interest in crypto and NFTs. The FTX scandal screwed tons of people over and put the spotlight on all the other bad actors.

- Nintendo announces a new console, it’s backwards compatible with the Switch.

- Nothing big happens with twitter. People complain about the new management but eventually things go back to normal.

- Similarly, everyone will forget about mastodon again.

- Bob Dylan dies.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#355

Post by bitL »

ehnto wrote: post #340
bitL wrote: post #327

Russia will have unexpected gains in Ukraine and US will decide to directly intervene using armies from Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, starting the WW3, escalating beyond all prior limits rapidly. EU will get completely nuked within a day, destroying all cities above 100k, leaving only pockets of rural areas survivable. UK and Ireland will be swept by a massive tsunami from a nuke detonated underw…

> There will be a full-blown nuclear exchange between the US and Russia, wiping out most countries in the northern hemisphere in the process, reducing human population to 1/10th of the current level within a year, leaving only parts of South America intact I just wanted to give a nod to all the other countries in the southern hemisphere, since some also have a likelihood to miss out on a nuclear Armageddon: Australia…

I would be surprised if NZ didn't have any nukes pointed at it due to being the favorite spot of the western elite for survival arrangements. For Australia only a few coastal cities need to be taken out as well. I think some parts of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and maybe Uruguay stand a chance of being untouched, maybe South Africa as well.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#356

Post by pzone »

naillo wrote: post #263
yyyk wrote: post #133

Tech: * AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important for serious applications, and less serious applications could do with existing solutions - Third-world click/content-farms are surprisingly competitive economically. * Website rendering will edge a bit towards WebAssembly+canvas stacks, essentially the second coming of Flash - the need/des…

Open source text-to-video and text-to-3d is definitely coming in 2023 so the first one is not gonna be right for sure.

They will come but unless the quality is better than what we have for image and text generation, the same thing applies. 95% is not good enough for most serious applications, so it’s not going to replace most jobs.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#357

Post by bkjelden »

1. The 10-2 and 10-3 yield curves will generate a false signal, and while growth will be slow, there will be no official recession in 2023.

2. Political prediction markets will give Donald Trump a less than 15% chance of being the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.

3. Biden will decide to run for reelection in 2024, and will have no serious primary opposition.

4. Twitter will be sold to another large tech company for less than half of Musk's acquisition price. (2023 feels a little aggressive for this one, I'd feel better about this as a 2024 prediction)

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#358

Post by xtian »

SyzygistSix wrote: post #348
voisin wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Around the same time, it's clear that there are more than 200K Ukrainian dead and all Narratives of them winning the war or even maintaining a stalemate are gone, even from western media. I am curious as to what leads you to make this prediction?

Honestly it sounds like they are sick in their soul rather than coming from a place of logic or insight.

What’s your logic?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#359

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

* The war in Ukraine persists til at least Summer - though Russia has 0 progress.

* Interest rates stay high in the US til at least August.

* Home prices in most major markets - especially US and China - continue to decline in real terms til Interest rates decrease.

Though, I won't be surprised in the least if some Black Swan happens and blows up all these predictions.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#360

Post by IIAOPSW »

Bold and seemingly contradictory predictions by me:

-The rapid advances in AI slow down. Dalle and GPTchat will be an exception not a rule in the long run. The fraction of hard AI problems that can be solved with raw force of more parameters and training isn't that large.

-Paradoxically, AI will change everything. The advances that are already here haven't caught on yet. Legal documents in particular occupy this sweet niche of having some of the rigidness and strictness of coding but without the exact syntax requirements needed for code. The lawyers haven't yet noticed the machine coming for their job. I'm sure lawyers are not the only ones.

-A great recession isn't coming. The markets just sort of trade sideways for a while. You won't get 9% annual off an index fund like you did in the past, you won't loose your shirt either.

-The big issue on everyone's mind is the war in Ukraine. From what I've seen of just crude projections of when Russia would run out of tanks, APC's, whatever else, Ukraine will win the war outright in the first half of this year.

-China has basically given up on zero covid. I say this as someone who earlier was planning to speculate on China doing another major lockdown: they ain't going back to it.

-First the plague, now the war, next the famine!

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