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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#41

Post by scanr »

- text and image generating AI is hugely disruptive to education and content generation

- Inflation eases, stock market recovers

- A Twitter alternative breaks through.

- One of the big tech companies joins the fediverse (Microsoft most likely)

- TikTok starts to falter - additional regulation, banning, lack of profitability and decline in popularity take a toll

- A fully autonomous drone is used in combat (edit: sounds like it may have already happened so adding “and kills a civilian”)

- Chinas ascendancy continues to slow, Xi’s popularity wanes

- We discover evidence of extra-terrestrial life

- someone “marries” their virtual partner (edit: already happened… so perhaps just a lot more of this)

- From last year: First AI generated novel makes best seller list. Arguments about how ‘directed’ it was

- From last year: Interactive Porn AI startups start doing very well

- Crypto is more regulated

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#42

Post by scrollaway »

jensneuse wrote: post #26

It's very interesting to go to last year's predictions ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 ) and search for the word "Russia".

Early 2022 the fears of Russia invading were real. They were downplayed and not talked about much in the mainstream but come January many already saw what Russia was up to.

Mostly it’s just that many of us, Ukrainians included (I speak from personal experience - I have Ukrainian close relatives), closed our eyes to Russia actually pulling the trigger. It is just unthinkably stupid and so, so disgusting.

That said, this comment was spot on, and not just on Russia: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746942

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#43

Post by ToJans »

Mostly web, as that's my area of expertise.

- Start of the movement from cloud/SaaS computing/storage to edge devices/client-side/on-prem.

- Amount of new successful SaaS orgs will decimate. The only 2 SaaS markets that will grow will be highly vertical/specialized or very big orgs offering commodity. They both will use value based pricing, but for the first growth will be sales-led and prices will be high, and the second will use product-led growth, and prices will be a race to the bottom of the market.

- Return to aspx/cgi-bin/single php/... files, as more and more services will simply bind together existing third party services.

- Return to server-side default first.

- People will start discovering P2P and start using it.

- Some variant of SQLite that you can run from the browser and update client-side will emerge. This might result in the re-discovery of offline web apps.

- A lot of AI driven content will appear, resulting in too much content and the need for a circle of trust (i.e. what are some good websites). Generic search might become less useful with things like ChatGPT, and something like the old webrings concept will probably emerge, although it might be differently implemented (i.e. a protocol, social media thing, ...)

bonus (as it's related to what I'm doing on a daily basis): something like the Metaverse will start emerging, but it will be web based using WebXR, in splintered/mostly gated communities. AR on mobile phones will become more accessible to consumers via phone, and a common way to interact with these things will emerge this year.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#44

Post by formerly_proven »

hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

Ordered by likelihood would be 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3 - 6.) being unfortunately a given (the question being where and when they'll attack) and and 3.) not very likely.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#45

Post by phtrivier »

hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

> 4.one massive strike in France ala 2018 Gilets Jaunes

Oooh, come oooooon... There probably hasn't ever been a single year _without_ something resembling a "massive strike" in France. And we have yet-another-pension-reform coming up.

It's like predicting there will be a massive barbecue in Texas :P

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#47

Post by azan_ »

sinlar-multiple wrote: post #24
AlexanderDhoore wrote: post #6

- climate crisis worsens

>muh climate crisis Keep looping the same rhetoric over and over again, I'm sure it'll make a difference like it did when you people started doing it 50 yrs ago

What do you mean? Do you think that measurable increase of global temperature is a rhetoric and not a fact?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#48

Post by ianai »

jodrellblank wrote: post #29
ianai wrote: post #23

We just might learn there’s life elsewhere in the solar system thanks to Rocket Labs probe of Venus. Possibly a few other sources for this too. JWST studies will begin pouring out results as the first one year lockup periods expire. There absolutely will be shocking results. (This being a prediction thread after all.) Covid may finally recede into less and less of a concern. But only after China reaches a maximal lev…

> There absolutely will be shocking results. What scale of shocking are you predicting? Signs of extra terrestrial spaceship trails across the sky, or estimates of dark matter quantity adjusted by 1%?

It’s going to fall within the scientific mission of JWST. So it could be exoplanet or even solar system atmospheric footprints that are hard to explain without biology. It did several observations of Trappist-1, for instance. Or even seeing types of stars before now only theorized like the darker specimens or even a strange (matter) star.

Edit-You can see where JWST was pointed and when at the following. It goes one week at a time. The data is either immediately publicly available or withheld for one year for the requesting scientists. https://www.stsci.edu/jwst/science-execution/observing-sched...

If it isn’t clear I’m a total JWST fanboy then let me just say it. I am an absolute JWST fanboy. I think telescopes have the best potential for widening fields like physics, chemistry, and more. This because ever increasing probes of QM require either astronomically large particle accelerators or unknown ways of accelerating particles. Further, the universe is absolutely huge and capable of much greater variety than anything we can engineer. So sitting back and taking notes is appropriate.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#49

Post by b3nji »

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into.

2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once was. The recession will hit, full force, possibly never seen before. In response, the governments may launch campaigns to promote the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in order to address this issue. These campaigns may aim to generate interest, curiosity, and demand for CBDCs among the general public. This will lead people further into a permanent digital prison.

3. Bitcoin may reach new all-time highs due to increasing demand and adoption. It is also possible that some alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) may suffer and potentially collapse due to market fluctuations or and insolvency. Maybe, some people will see that the fiat system is failing.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#50

Post by Gigachad »

gumboza wrote: post #10
dmak wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - The slow death of SPAs and client side JavaScript (including WASM in that) will commence due to the dubious ROI. What do you think would replace it? it seems impossible to manage a modern frontend app without it. For most cases, I think we don't need it though.

Server side rendering with light weight JavaScript. The point you make about most cases not needing it is spot on.

This is how most products start and then inevitably it starts to require more complex interactive pages so you have to add react and then it becomes easier for everything to be react.

Client side rendering is not strictly tied to single page apps. At a previous company we had rails render out a div containing all the data the page needed to mount the react component. No complex api design, no weird permission issues, etc.

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