Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#361

Post by cf141q5325 » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:24 PM UTC

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #326

rsj_hn wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

With top notch analysis like this, you should consider claiming a salary from the fifth directorate of the Federal Security Service. This is just the kind of stuff that'll allow them to continue building on their stellar track record of 2022!

I am sure they are also willing to pay big rubles for people sabotaging the ability of western countries to have meaningful debates and discussions. Messing with the reality finding mechanism of your opponent is as good as it gets during wartime. And that is most effective if you overdrive the narratives people already believe.

edit: Case and point, OP is flagged and no longer visible. This is how successful Russian information operations look like. There is nothing the Kremlin can publish that is going to convince any meaningful section of western society, but getting them to put on blinders is incredibly easy. And once they are on, we are screwed. When stuff becomes unthinkable it becomes incredibly easy to exploit. Not to mention that believing your own propaganda targeted at the morale of English speaking Russian soldiers is already really dangerous.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#362

Post by scrollaway » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:24 PM UTC

JasonFruit wrote: post #241

0dayz wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As some other has pointed out this sounds way too disruptive to be true (how exactly would 200k deaths change the entire prospect of the war?). Why would the US need to replace zelensky with a "puppet"? Ukraine wants US boots in Ukraine. China recovery of their GDP is going to happen how? They got multiple issues systemically destroying their GDP growth (pollution, corruption, housing market collapse, over fishing, b…

[flagged]

> Zelensky is already a US puppet

Get this shit out of HN and back to RT, please. The US is not the center of Europe, and Ukraine is its own country.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#363

Post by Macha » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:24 PM UTC

klntsky wrote: post #276

ToJans wrote: post #43

Mostly web, as that's my area of expertise. - Start of the movement from cloud/SaaS computing/storage to edge devices/client-side/on-prem. - Amount of new successful SaaS orgs will decimate. The only 2 SaaS markets that will grow will be highly vertical/specialized or very big orgs offering commodity. They both will use value based pricing, but for the first growth will be sales-led and prices will be high, and the s…

> Some variant of SQLite that you can run from the browser and update client-side will emerge Has already been tried: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_SQL_Database

It failed because of being a browser built in tech with insufficient support and no route to standardisation. Newer wasm based approaches have had a good year in 2022 with absurd-sql, sql.js and upstream wasm/vfs work so I think it's actually pretty close to just having a drop in library with good browser support

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#364

Post by throwzzzzzzz » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:25 PM UTC

If country is not specified then I’m talking about US

- collapse of freelance art economy. Fiverr and like sites start to offer ai generated art

- major advances in ai generated music and video. Popular artist will release a song generated by ai.

- major tv show with anti-China statement

- Russia declares second (April-May) and third mobilization waves, totaling around 800k troops. Attacks Ukraine through Belarus. West anti air systems are going to protect energy generation/distribution facilities in Ukraine

- militia sponsored by Turkey/west starts major military operation in Syria

- China does not invade Taiwan

- tech layoffs peak in Autumn 2023. Meta does another round of around 15k, with target to have 30k-40k headcount. AWS starts shutting down products, breaking their habit of keeping lights on even for minor things.

- TikTok is not banned in US

- Russia continues selling oil/gas to west, even under sanctions

- another high profile Boeing plane crash

- Tesla doesn’t deliver neither cybertruck nor fsd

- Trump’s presidential ambition will tear apart Republican Party

- Snowflake stock drops under $100, infra companies (elastic search etc) continue losing money

- crypto crash. Tether and binance collapse wipe out value of bitcoin and ether rum. More regulation

- another billionaire moves to New Zealand

- Amazon in talks about partnering with AliExpress

- no viable alternative to Twitter emerges, but Twitter usage drops

- Apple will be forced to provide alternate stores/browsers. iPhone 15 will have usb c

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#365

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:26 PM UTC

dmak wrote: post #207

Euphorbium wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The age of influencers is over, they are not cool anymore.

It's just getting started. We're on the verge of seeing the first few billionaire influencers emerge. That will definitely turn heads and drive more money towards that direction. We're also seeing the rise of the children of tech money (I forgot the name to reference this group of people), but they're going to be heavy on influencer lifecycles too.

"influencer" is like Tech.

Kylie isn't a billionaire because she's an "influencer" - she's a billionaire because she runs a traditional business.

Just like Meta isn't a "tech" company - it's a traditional media / advertising company with a slightly different model.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#366

Post by Macha » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:27 PM UTC

SyzygistSix wrote: post #309

b3nji wrote: post #49

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into. 2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once wa…

The one prediction I've seen (not here) that I agree with is that the Model Y will be the highest selling vehicle in the world in 2023. But I don't disagree with you about BEVs. I think companies will focus on hybrids as much as BEVs.

Not a hope. Won't win the US market because of not being big enough, will do even worse worldwide because of the price tag.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#367

Post by scrollaway » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:27 PM UTC

phtrivier wrote: post #45

hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

> 4.one massive strike in France ala 2018 Gilets Jaunes Oooh, come oooooon... There probably hasn't ever been a single year _without_ something resembling a "massive strike" in France. And we have yet-another-pension-reform coming up. It's like predicting there will be a massive barbecue in Texas :P

“Predicting a massive strike in France is like predicting a massive barbecue in Texas”. I love it, and I will steal it (I’m French :)).

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#368

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:28 PM UTC

dr_dshiv wrote: post #220

amelius wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess this was mostly Ukrainians who noted this while the rest of the world was sleeping. And apparently, I am reading the wrong news sources.

- Starship makes a successful orbital flight. - Russia won't start any overt military operations in Donbass, let alone Ukraine proper. - Modern GPU prices are still ridiculous. - Europe's opinion on nuclear energy will become a tad more favorable. - Ethereum won't shift to Proof of Stake. - No major AI breakthroughs. - James Cameron's Avatar 2 won't bring anything groundbreaking to the table. - Apple won't release a…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#369

Post by glass3 » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:28 PM UTC

* An international food crisis due to interrupted fertilizer supply chains

* China will sanction Western countries to influence the war in Ukraine

* Twitter will enter the link aggregator market, combining Reddit and TikTok. Searching on Twitter will become a thing and Google will have to cut costs since their ad business is threatened

* Google will sell Google Cloud Services to Oracle to cut their losses

* An Apple VR headset

* A revival of cryptocurrencies on Etherum caused by the reduced supply of fiat currencies

* Solar AI data centers in North Africa and Arabia

*edit: * War drone development will absorb all available engineers

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#370

Post by rubberband » Sun, Dec 25, 2022, 3:31 PM UTC

I'm not that good at predicting the present, so mise well.

1. Doubts creep in as to practical usefulness of AI, and it ebbs a little in late November. Admittedly this is hard to quantify and perhaps poorly worded.

2. US housing interest rates halve by August.

3. Bitcoin to $10,000.

4. Two of the top 20 US banks get implicated in large crypto-scandals.

5. Amazon stock up 20% for the year.

Gonna be a hoot.