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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#301
At least one round of layoffs at Google

Return to office in most companies. Reduction in remote hiring, but "remote only" companies will persist to take advantage of more diverse labour pool.

Significant drop in tech compensation, but especially in the Bay Area.

Further collapse of crypto/web3. Some major VC who has been heavily pushing it will announce their divestment from further ventures.

Some amount of intensified public/cultural backlash against LMM type AI. Bitter lawsuits, especially around CoPilot.

Significant drops in real estate prices in places that have seen overheated prices for the last decade or two (in particular Toronto, Vancouver).

Significant rise in unemployment rate, beginnings of an official recession by mid or late year. Inflation will drop. Potential major drop in oil prices as demand slackens. Perhaps leading to some political/economic troubles in governments heavily dependent on energy export revenues but this may not happen until 2024.

Major shift to austerity in western/G7 countries, administered by both "right wing" and "progressive" governments. Similar to mid-90s. Effort to instil "labour discipline", rises in productivity, and major policy efforts to resist wage increases and unionization.

End of interest rate increases, setting things up for cuts in 2024.

Winter intensification of war in Ukraine leads to a stalemate at pretty much the current occupied areas. By mid or late year a "peace" deal will be arrived at -- with some territory lost by Ukraine (but maybe the return of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) but a humiliating lack of major progress on its "goals" by Russia. Both parties frustrated will simply use the pause in hostilities to heavily re-arm.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#302
post #255

- The world is quite different since the robotic uprising of 2023 - There is no more unhappiness - We no longer say 'yes'. Instead we say 'affirmative' - There is no more unethical treatment of the elephants - There's only one kind of dance - There are no more humans. Finally, robotic beings rule the world

> There are no more humans The humans are dead!?

They will have poisoned our asses with poisonous gasses.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#303

The dead internet theory will become true. Machine generated (spam, AI, not reposts) and old posts from dead people or dead accounts will overwhelm new human generated content. The war in Ukraine will end with Russia relying increasingly on kamikazi drones. Around end of spring a peace will be brokered. Russia will retain most of its territory gained esp with respect to black sea access. Western Europe continued in r…

> The ISS will be taken out by some space junk.

A bold but possible prediction.

I've seen a more cautious statistical take somewhere: well above 50% chance of a space-related fatality within the decade. Either from space junk colliding with a crewed station, or space junk falling to earth finally winning the lottery by coming down into a populated area and killing someone.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…

...a Western-friendly replacement is installed in Russia... Some have forgotten that Putin was originally declared "a Western-friendly replacement". The world would have been a more peaceful place if we hadn't interfered in Russian politics to support Yeltsin and his chosen successor. Russia isn't the only nation in which our choice (??) of leader has led to "blowback", both for the victim nation and for most America…

Yeltsin was quite different from the successor in question. He "gave up" his "family" ruling in exchange for security guarantees.

USA probably should've chosen a stronger leader to support, but there wasn't much choice at that time. Or at least they should've helped to organize the transition of power to someone with a more credible past than that of a KGB officer.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My general prediction is : - next year will be a mixture of things continuing to happen as before, and completely unexpexted events (that will actually play out similarly than previous events, but from a while ago.) - There will be strikes in France, - coups in south America and / or Africa, - very few plane crashes, an awful lot of car accidents - and maybe a rocket malfunction. - War in Russia will go on. (Apparent…

> War in Russia will go on. There is no war in Russia. Russia is at war, but that war is happening in a country called Ukraine.

Ukraine has brought the war back to Russia in a handful of attacks.

Another argument is that conscription leads to unrest, and also sowing doubt amongst the leadership is a kind of war.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/strikes-deep-i...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#306

- The world is quite different since the robotic uprising of 2023 - There is no more unhappiness - We no longer say 'yes'. Instead we say 'affirmative' - There is no more unethical treatment of the elephants - There's only one kind of dance - There are no more humans. Finally, robotic beings rule the world

Come on baby lick my battery.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My general prediction is : - next year will be a mixture of things continuing to happen as before, and completely unexpexted events (that will actually play out similarly than previous events, but from a while ago.) - There will be strikes in France, - coups in south America and / or Africa, - very few plane crashes, an awful lot of car accidents - and maybe a rocket malfunction. - War in Russia will go on. (Apparent…

Do you have a source for the last two? Seems too far fetched.

I'm trying to get a double blind controlled study of the weather duringy holidays published, but the editor of Science has not returned my calls yet.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#308

1. A breakthrough in "deepfake voice" is made that can emote convincingly. It is used to add Marilyn Monroe or James Dean to a TV show or movie. A US supreme court challenge to the admissibility of audio recordings is begun, after a murder case is thrown out due to evidence being shown to be an audio deepfake. 2. A single climate catastrophe-linked weather event causes tens of thousands of deaths. Governments pledge…

Can you elaborate on 4?

Basically the same as the lead exposure in children problem discovered by Herbert Needleman:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Needleman

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis

I think that a microplastic build-up in the body will be discovered to lead to violent behaviour, or possibly cognitive impairment.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#309
post #49

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into. 2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once wa…

The one prediction I've seen (not here) that I agree with is that the Model Y will be the highest selling vehicle in the world in 2023. But I don't disagree with you about BEVs. I think companies will focus on hybrids as much as BEVs.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#310

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

> When hiring begins again a large number of the new hires are either remote or are in other geographical areas where labour costs are lower.

I think this is a definite possibility too. I understand the reasons why US tech comp is higher than the rest of the world, but I don't see why it is _that_ much higher - I'm not sure it's sustainable in the new remote-work world.

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