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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#261

Post by ramblerman »

Trasmatta wrote: post #233
ramblerman wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did. How exactly do you propose to do that given the binary knowledge of the event occuring or not...

Let's say somebody makes a prediction that something will happen, and it doesn't. You could evaluate the prediction differently if they gave it a 55% chance of happening vs a 95% chance.

Over many repeated experiments that might provide useful.

But what if I predict with 100% certainty heads, and the coin comes up heads. Did we learn anything "useful" about my prediction?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#262

Post by odiroot »

rsj_hn wrote: post #173
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

[flagged]

This sounds like you're reading a lot of Tom Clancy. Maybe too much.

Or as other commenter said, sympathising with everything that's against the "bad Amis".

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#263

Post by naillo »

yyyk wrote: post #133

Tech: * AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important for serious applications, and less serious applications could do with existing solutions - Third-world click/content-farms are surprisingly competitive economically. * Website rendering will edge a bit towards WebAssembly+canvas stacks, essentially the second coming of Flash - the need/des…

Open source text-to-video and text-to-3d is definitely coming in 2023 so the first one is not gonna be right for sure.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#264

Post by klntsky »

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

> The market for stock photography and grunt level copy writing collapses entirely.

You assume that with the new technology the total number of people needed in this sector will be reduced, but I think the industry will simply adjust, and the only visible result would be that more content will be produced by the same number of people. This is a competitive market (your success is determined by the amount of money you are willing to spend on producing content about your product), so the same people will just get their share for 1000x the work they have been doing in the past.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#266

Post by klntsky »

unity1001 wrote: post #190
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

> 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. You forget the emergence of the creator economy, smaller communities and the move to the early, syndicated nature of the early 2000s Internet. That internet has no problems with any of those. All of the issu…

The division is not only in network infrastructure, but in human minds as well.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#267

Post by smcl »

- Conservatives to recover in the UK polling such that an utter electoral collapse is no longer forecast. They still get predicted to lose, but they remain 2nd-largest party

- Polling in Scotland to consistently show >50% support for independence but - or rather therefore - no movement on a second referendum from Westminster

- Collapse in cryptocurrency. Binance, Bitfinex, Crypto.com and the like to go bankrupt. BTC and ETH to somehow stumble on but continue to not be widely used outside of niche, nerdy applications

- Something catastrophic to happen to Twitter. Bankruptcy or sold w/ massive haircut to the Saudis, something like that.

- Ukraine to slowly retake Kherson in its entirety. Russia open up a new front somewhere else, together with Belarus.

- Some transatlantic undersea cables are severed in an act of sabotage from Russia

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#268

Post by smcl »

ad404b8a372f2b9 wrote: post #237

In the world: Euthanasia becomes a hot button issue and is legalized through referendums in most Western European countries. The Ukraine war ends after Russia starts gaining back territory in February, some kind of peace deal is reached, Ukraine loses the occupied territories and Europe agrees to pay for most of the reconstruction. We see the first feature-length movie with AI-generated video. On my end: I buy a hous…

Fingers crossed for your house hunting and your company :)

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#270

Post by tootie »

qingdao99 wrote: post #246

- as probably everyone here would agree, AI-generated content will flood the Internet. - the above will lead sites to desperately search for better bot prevention tools, eventually culminating in a few years with the introduction of systems where online activity is tied to a person's real identity via their government (privately - we will still be behind usernames but the site will be able to verify with the person's…

Contrarian take: AI continues to fizzle. ChatGPT is very impressive but so were the last ten breakthroughs in AI and none of them have proven very compelling. At least not for consumers. We'll see advances in some business processes related to text processing but that's about it. Who is going to make practical use of AI art? Maybe the low-end gaming market? I'm also bearish on writing even for low-touch marketing copy. If you've ever sat in a meeting to discuss marketing copy you'd know writing takes up about 1% of the cost and the rest is debate.

OpenAI is the apotheosis of regression analysis. It can only repackage what humans have already created. Over reliance will absolutely stultify every creative endeavor and we'll be stuck in a loop. I foresee a lot of adoption followed by a lot of disillusionment.

All that being said, I do believe it's only a matter of time before all that happens. Just not 2023.

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