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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#251

Post by 535188B17C93743 »

qingdao99 wrote: post #246

- as probably everyone here would agree, AI-generated content will flood the Internet. - the above will lead sites to desperately search for better bot prevention tools, eventually culminating in a few years with the introduction of systems where online activity is tied to a person's real identity via their government (privately - we will still be behind usernames but the site will be able to verify with the person's…

You think all of this will happen in 2023? I could see AI becoming more powerful and more of an issue for content moderation/spam/propoganda, but leading to social, political, and economic change? I'm doubtful.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#253

Post by kensai »

qingdao99 wrote: post #246

- as probably everyone here would agree, AI-generated content will flood the Internet. - the above will lead sites to desperately search for better bot prevention tools, eventually culminating in a few years with the introduction of systems where online activity is tied to a person's real identity via their government (privately - we will still be behind usernames but the site will be able to verify with the person's…

Spot on analysis. Especially the last point. The divide will indeed be between believers and non believers much more than rich and poor.

The rich and poor will both have among their lines people who think the AI will uplift the masses and others who think it is a tool of oppression. The real battle would be on those who think they can control it for the betterment of humanity. And those that do no.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#255

Post by smcl »

ihatepython wrote: post #135

- The world is quite different since the robotic uprising of 2023 - There is no more unhappiness - We no longer say 'yes'. Instead we say 'affirmative' - There is no more unethical treatment of the elephants - There's only one kind of dance - There are no more humans. Finally, robotic beings rule the world

> There are no more humans

The humans are dead!?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#257

Post by cf141q5325 »

voisin wrote: post #188
rsj_hn wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Around the same time, it's clear that there are more than 200K Ukrainian dead and all Narratives of them winning the war or even maintaining a stalemate are gone, even from western media. I am curious as to what leads you to make this prediction?

Not him, but from current predictions to 200k isnt that big of a jump. If i recall we are likely at over 100k dead servicemen (matching Russian losses) and something around 40k dead civilians.

Not so sure about such a drastic shift myself, but its a possibility if you think of it in terms of having overdone the whole propaganda aspect and inadvertently triggering a reaction. Especially as having observed it for the better part of the last year, i suspect Russia has been goating western media/commentators/politicians into especially brazen stuff. To give an example for especially brazen instances, there is the propaganda channel "Perun" on youtube who does a great job framing itself as open source intelligence. When it came to the Ukrainian Kherson offensive he however dropped the ball and transparently crossed the line from miss- to dissinformation when he

1) Congratulated the Ukrainian government on "preserving manpower" by banning military age males from leaving the country

2) Stating that the Ukrainian military was made up solely from "volunteers", thus the great fighting spirit

3) Congratulating the Ukrainian government on its willingness to take losses in Kherson with the strategic aim of worsening the Russian supply situation

Add to stuff like this the reports that got brazenly silenced like the Amnesty International report about Ukraine having soldiers positioned in schools and hospitals. The rational being that Russia knew about all prewar military positions in case you wondered.

Its the old problem of exploiting a bogey man too brazenly and overdoing propaganda. Once you overdo it, you might be in for a rude awakening about the extend of stuff that stops working.

edit: Minute 26:06 in the Video from 17th of September (Seven months from Kyiv to Kharkiv), Minute 27:30 and 41:40 of the Kherson video from 20th November. Binge watched them so not sure where he mentioned the volunteer part, but the preserving manpower with ban to leave the country should be mentioned in the Ukrainian mobilization video. But also referenced at around min 13 in the Kyiv to Kharkiv video.

For Amnesty Report and the backlash see https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrai...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/07/amnesty-intern...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#258

Post by odiroot »

r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#259

Post by denton-scratch »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #204
lordnacho wrote: post #161

Someone on the UK will be found in their home, frozen to ice. The story will pass, Sunak government continues. Nurses get screwed, along with border force, train drivers, and everyone else. Inflation will come down but will still be high historically, governments will pretend it's a win. Central banks won't. SPX down 10%. Twitter has a major outage. Bitcoin touches 10k and 30k. At least one more explosion in the spac…

I also think Russia will mostly withdraw from Ukraine. What do you think will happen with Crimea? I think that will remain with Russia for a long, long time, like Turkish Cypress. The rebuilding process in Ukraine will take 20+ years and cost crazy 100s of billions of Euro. The damage looks similar to fire-bombed cities during World War II (both Germany and Japan). And to be real: I am so sad about COVID-19 in China.…

> What do you think will happen with Crimea?

Crimea and the Sevastopol naval base are being used as a platform to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities. It's hard to imagine a successful peace-deal that leaves Sevastopol in Russian hands.

Crimea is maintained by (a) the Kerch Bridge and (b) the land-bridge through Mariopol. The Kerch Bridge is very vulnerable, and the land-bridge too. Northern Crimea looks hard to assault, and is very well fortified.

As far as I'm aware, Crimea is nowadays occupied mainly by retired Russian sailors and their families; there has been a great replacement. I think it would be possible for Ukraine to drive Russians out of Crimea, but hard. I think it would be difficult for Ukraine to govern Crimea, and I doubt the USA would back a Ukrainian counterattack in Crimea. I suspect Ukraine will come under increasing pressure to give up claims on Crimea, in exchange for a full Russian withdrawal from Donbas. I think it would be a mistake for Ukraine to yield; Russian sentiment still seems to be strongly pro-war and pro-Putin, and a peace deal isn't the same as a Ukraine victory. I don't think there will be peace until Ukraine is able to defeat that pro-war Russian sentiment.

FWIW, I think the reasonable deal would be for Russia to withdraw from Donbas, in exchange for Crimea. Such an agreement would be heavily dependent on Western guarantees and weapons; and probably troops.

Crimea is valuable to Russia as its principal Black Sea naval base. It's not so valuable to Ukraine. But it is a serious threat to Odessa, Ukraine's principal Black Sea naval base.

I think someone has to win this war; a peace with no victory will just result in a resumption of the conflict. Russia could win quickly, by invading Kiev and removing the government. Ukraine can only win slowly, by reversing Russian pro-war sentiment through attrition. I can imagine a retaliatory Ukrainian attack on power infrastructure in e.g. Muscovy, if Ukraine were given long-range accurate missiles; that might swing sentiment.

I think Ukraine has more urgent problems than recovering Crimea. But I think that fucking bridge will have to go, in any peace deal.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#260

Post by rffn »

stellalo wrote: post #122
rffn wrote: post #22

2023 will be an average year. It will not be as good as 2022 but will be better than 2024.

So 2022 was better than average?

Good point. I meant to say that this regards only the three years mentioned. Then 2022 is above average.

While un my opinion there is a downwards trend since a few years, I would agree that there were quite a few years better than 2022 if the timeframe of a few decades is looked at, so many that is makes it difficult for 2022 to be at or above average.

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