241–250 of 816 posts
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As some other has pointed out this sounds way too disruptive to be true (how exactly would 200k deaths change the entire prospect of the war?). Why would the US need to replace zelensky with a "puppet"? Ukraine wants US boots in Ukraine. China recovery of their GDP is going to happen how? They got multiple issues systemically destroying their GDP growth (pollution, corruption, housing market collapse, over fishing, b…
1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…
> 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. You forget the emergence of the creator economy, smaller communities and the move to the early, syndicated nature of the early 2000s Internet. That internet has no problems with any of those. All of the issu…
Early internet: As long as there was copper, you generally could exchange {protocol} (i.e. HTTP, FTP, POP3, ...) to {person} in {country}, quite freely.
Current internet: Many egress and ingress connections are banned by {government agency} of {country}.
Future internet: What parent comment was predicting: An increasing number of governments increasingly aggressively ban an increasing number of internet services (i.e. connections).
It's really not that hard to imagine, look at China or Russia or many other countries (e.g. Middle-East). Very aggresive white/blacklists of internet services.
This is the "fracturing" the parent comment is alluding to.
1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…
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- the above will lead sites to desperately search for better bot prevention tools, eventually culminating in a few years with the introduction of systems where online activity is tied to a person's real identity via their government (privately - we will still be behind usernames but the site will be able to verify with the person's government that they are a real person) and passing off AI-generated content as human content will constitute a rule violation.
- AIs will be "let loose" on virtual machines, where they will experience many lifetimes' worth of computer use in a short time, learning to fully operate computers and start the process of replacing jobs not by having a technically capable person operating an AI, but by simply having an AI fully replace a person's job by acting identical to a remote worker from a manager/coworker's point of view. After AI gets intelligent enough, it will replace all desk jobs.
- After it becomes clear that AI will replace large portions of jobs (which I think will happen in 2023 when the next few iterations of AIs are released) there will be a push for UBI which will be supported by both sides of the political divide, as well as both the rich and the poor, and divided along the lines of who "believes" in AI and who doesn't
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It's a bit weird to overpay for Twitter if you're expecting a downturn, no?
That was the right price at the time and patience is certainly not his virtue. Like I said putting it all on the line is how he operates.
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I'm not sure of your motivation either, but we all have our biases; those are powerful predictions, and it's a shame you've been hit with such a downvote attack.