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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#161

Post by lordnacho »

Someone on the UK will be found in their home, frozen to ice. The story will pass, Sunak government continues. Nurses get screwed, along with border force, train drivers, and everyone else.

Inflation will come down but will still be high historically, governments will pretend it's a win. Central banks won't. SPX down 10%.

Twitter has a major outage.

Bitcoin touches 10k and 30k. At least one more explosion in the space, someone at a big player gets arrested.

Rust continues to grow, everywhere but especially in Linux.

More AI awesome stuff comes out.

Ukraine wins the war. Putin makes excuses. No actual treaty of course.

Covid causes massive problems in China.

Property crisis in China continues.

Either Biden or Trump passes from natural causes. Big news of course, conspiracy theories.

Messi gets next Ballon d'Or.

Brock Purdy becomes a starter. Eagles win the next SB.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#162

Post by cinntaile »

rapsey wrote: post #150
hutzlibu wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"he is almost certainly loving his time there right now." Certainly not. He loves the attention and power he has gained, but he certainly does not love the bad numbers (Tesla stock also went DOWN as well) and that the quite meaningless poll whether he should step down, was not in his favor. He did not comment on that one with "Vox Populi Vox Dei".

Those are all weak reasons. Musk was correctly anticipating a major down turn in the economy for 2022. He was saying this at the end of 2021. Of course Tesla went down, everything else did as well. This is not a surprise. Fun fact he and Thiel also correctly anticipated the dotcom crash before it happened and pushed for the last round of PayPal funding to get done quickly at the peak as they expected it to be the las…

It's a bit weird to overpay for Twitter if you're expecting a downturn, no?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#163

Post by orwin »

schappim wrote: post #101
Beldin wrote: post #87

- Full Self Driving will be "1-2 years away", much as it has been for the last 7 years - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been the last 40-60 years. - same for other "right around the corner" predictions - the world will change; most of that change is incremental; any real radical shifts will only be apparent with hindsight. - the superrich are going to get loads more superrich; the environment…

Re: - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been the last 40-60 years. Has recent advances in the last month not made you more optimistic?

No, this does nothing for energy -generating reactors, but I agree that's interesting for future military nuclear tech.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#164

Post by Archit3ch »

- AI breakthroughs on the level of DALL-E/ChatGPT monthly. They go through the hype cycle of "this changes everything, we are now replaced by robots" to "wait, it has this major drawback that makes it obviously wrong if you know where to look" to "hmmm, I could see myself using this on a professional level with a little touching up by a human".

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#165

Post by thuridas »

- AI will be introduced in some comercial applications. There will be efforts to make it more general. I would also expect more software development applications like "fix all my sonar warnings" or "migrate everything from Java to good Kotlin code"

- The Russia invasion of Ukraine will keep bloody and may escalate further. Political unrest in Transnistria or Belarus that may mean a change of regime (maybe with some extra help with US). Russia will start showing big financial and social problems.

- China will not go from Taiwan invasion but will try to consolidate disputed islands and other water territories taking advantage of NATO distractions.

- More crypto problems. Investors will have other less risky places to get profits.

- Twitter will be sold to an investor with money by a fraction of what Elon paid. Things may improve.

- Trump judicial problems may end him in prison. Republicans will select a different candidate and this will make a lot of noise. This wouldn't guaranty a republican lose.

- the world would adapt to be without Rusia oil. Prices will slowly go down. With great investments in green energies they will become cheaper in the long run. May be some battery improvements become mainstream

- melting ice will be worse than ever. Some north countries may experience natural disasters with new rivers or buildings built over frozen soil becoming unstable

- China may be in crisis but will still show new cool tech that may forbid the west to use after The US forbid some exports/imports. Commerce wars are quite probable ( but better than the alternative)

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#166

Post by The_Colonel »

mhuffman wrote: post #99
MerelyMortal wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you predict that it will end?

A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…

> Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or

That seems like a bad precedent - nuclear blackmail and aggression works, you get rewarded with territory/concessions.

It is certainly a possibility, but in a way loss of credibility for US/West.

> US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at home and politicians are on TV everyday talking about how much is being sent to Ukraine); or

I think the monetary help might decrease, but the military help rather not. Sending old weapon stocks don't really produce any economic hit.

> Putin has a health/life issue and a Western-friendly replacement is installed in Russia (Putin is no Spring chicken!)

This is very unlikely to happen. Putin might be replaced one way or another, but the replacement won't be particularly friendly to the West. They might be slightly less (or more) antagonistic.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#168

Post by amelius »

jensneuse wrote: post #26

It's very interesting to go to last year's predictions ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 ) and search for the word "Russia".

I guess this was mostly Ukrainians who noted this while the rest of the world was sleeping. And apparently, I am reading the wrong news sources.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#169

Post by fqye »

physicles wrote: post #118
logicallee wrote: post #93

- Undisputed AGI chatbot. It doesn't get confused or off track anymore, no longer hallucinates false information confidently, and can handle any generic task at around 100 IQ (ChatAGP's current IQ is around 83.) There are no longer any questions that it is AGI, it is undisputed. - but it still can't assemble a sandwich for you because no cheap household robot hands. People realize that they could get a lot more value…

> Breakthrough treaty between Taiwan and China. This is impossible on several levels. Most Chinese citizens are 100% convinced that Taiwan is a breakaway province and the mere idea of its independence is extremely offensive. Even if Xi himself were amenable to the idea of a treaty (which he is not — rather, he sees the “reclamation” of Taiwan as his opportunity to write himself into the history books), his government…

I think he meant a treaty of quasi independence yet on face a special autonomous region of China for Taiwan.

And your assessment is right. It is unimaginable for any leader of CCP to grant independent state to Taiwan. He would be buried by party members and mainland Chinese.

This sort of treaty still needs to be approved by China's parliament. Though in most cases it is a just formality for parliament to approve any treaties but when it comes to a treaty that grants independence of Taiwan, vast majority of parliament members would object it.

And please be aware that Chinese people do go to street. Recent demonstrations in multiple cities and universities against endless covid lock downs proved it.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#170

Post by MzHN »

CMCDragonkai wrote: post #156
MzHN wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People will start discovering P2P and start using it. I recently tried to get into P2P for web apps, only to discover that P2P is increasingly a lie. 100% of my users are unable to connect to 100% of my users, due to CGNATs and IPv4/IPv6 mismatches. I know the percentages are better for some projects. Maybe once we are fully IPv6 and carriers drop their NATs. Won't happen next year, if ever, especially the latter.

We are working in decentralised hole punching with QUIC to help enable P2P.

Does it work when both users have symmetric NAT with randomized ports?

WebRTC provides an abundance of hole punching, but as far as I've learned, nothing gets through symmetric NAT with randomized ports.

Except for relays (TURN), which isn't P2P.

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