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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#131

Post by vladvasiliu »

phtrivier wrote: post #45
hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

> 4.one massive strike in France ala 2018 Gilets Jaunes Oooh, come oooooon... There probably hasn't ever been a single year _without_ something resembling a "massive strike" in France. And we have yet-another-pension-reform coming up. It's like predicting there will be a massive barbecue in Texas :P

> There probably hasn't ever been a single year _without_ something resembling a "massive strike"

Can't really remember one for this year. Then again, there are still five more days to.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#132

Post by YesThatTom2 »

say_it_as_it_is wrote: post #113
NilsIRL wrote: post #110

I would encourage people to include probabilities with their predictions.

I would encourage everyone to think about how much they would personally be willing to bet about their prediction

There should be an emoji/symbol that means “wishful thinking” vs. “I have data that indicated/predicts this will happen”

A long time ago I realized the difference.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#133

Post by yyyk »

Tech:

* AI will keep wowing us, but in 2023 actual change will be surprisingly little. Turns out the extra 1% is rather important for serious applications, and less serious applications could do with existing solutions - Third-world click/content-farms are surprisingly competitive economically.

* Website rendering will edge a bit towards WebAssembly+canvas stacks, essentially the second coming of Flash - the need/desire was always there, mobile is getting more powerful, stacks will adjust back.

World:

* The war in Ukraine will continue back and forth. Over the long run leading to a strategic defeat for Russia regardless of tactical results (The West's logistical superiority will win out in the end).

* The Middle East will flare up, since 'pretend the JCPOA is still viable' can't hold past 2023 (the West will worry about sunsets, Iran will look at its economy and double down as the regime always does).

* Add in shocks from China and the Fed, and a recession is guaranteed. For how long I can't say.

* Relative political stability in most of the democratic world, not that voters are pleased, but they'll stick with the current group for 2023.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#134

Post by 1f60c »

The war in Ukraine will continue, but (more?) cracks will start to form in the Western response come springtime.

OpenAI introduces a new and improved version of GPT-3, and more people will ask questions about ethics and resource consumption.

More politicians will attempt to ban TikTok in the US, but they will be unsuccessful.

Twitter will suffer a devastating breach, and the fediverse will continue to grow.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#135

Post by ihatepython »

- The world is quite different since the robotic uprising of 2023

- There is no more unhappiness

- We no longer say 'yes'. Instead we say 'affirmative'

- There is no more unethical treatment of the elephants

- There's only one kind of dance

- There are no more humans. Finally, robotic beings rule the world

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#136

Post by FeistySkink »

phtrivier wrote: post #66
jensneuse wrote: post #26

It's very interesting to go to last year's predictions ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 ) and search for the word "Russia".

My general prediction is : - next year will be a mixture of things continuing to happen as before, and completely unexpexted events (that will actually play out similarly than previous events, but from a while ago.) - There will be strikes in France, - coups in south America and / or Africa, - very few plane crashes, an awful lot of car accidents - and maybe a rocket malfunction. - War in Russia will go on. (Apparent…

Do you have a source for the last two? Seems too far fetched.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#137

Post by hutzlibu »

rapsey wrote: post #80
hikingsimulator wrote: post #21

Here is what I expect: 1, The Sunak Government will further undo the banking ring-fencing rules in England so large banks can play with British pension funds. Down the line (6-10 years), there will be a massive pension crisis in England. 2, The USA will start delivering ATACM missiles to Ukraine (this may prompt Russia to make an example: a nuclear detonation over the black sea or some Ukraine field as an attempt to…

Regarding 3. There are a whole lot of people projecting their desires on this situation and letting their dislike of Elon completely cloud their judgement and reasoning capacity. What is going on at Twitter is the Musk modus operandi and he is almost certainly loving his time there right now. He put it all on the line at PayPal, Tesla and now Twitter. It's just extremely public this time. You can say he failed plenty…

"he is almost certainly loving his time there right now."

Certainly not. He loves the attention and power he has gained, but he certainly does not love the bad numbers (Tesla stock also went DOWN as well) and that the quite meaningless poll whether he should step down, was not in his favor.

He did not comment on that one with "Vox Populi Vox Dei".

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#138

Post by jessaustin »

mhuffman wrote: post #99
MerelyMortal wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you predict that it will end?

A few obvious ways: 1. Russia starts "testing" nukes and a deal is brokered that pisses off both Ukraine and Russia but allows them both to claim "victory", save face and not start a thermonuclear war (this is Henry Kissinger's take); or 2. US loses its taste of financing and completely backing the Ukrainian war if a big recession hits here (hard to support Ukraine when we start "really" feeling a economic hit at hom…

...a Western-friendly replacement is installed in Russia...

Some have forgotten that Putin was originally declared "a Western-friendly replacement". The world would have been a more peaceful place if we hadn't interfered in Russian politics to support Yeltsin and his chosen successor. Russia isn't the only nation in which our choice (??) of leader has led to "blowback", both for the victim nation and for most Americans. We should stop doing this.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#139

Post by midasuni »

jodrellblank wrote: post #40

I have none; I guess 2023 will be broadly similar to 2022, and I feel like the UK is trending down in many respects, but those aren’t predictions worth anything. Huge shifts in the world tend to be unpredictable by ordinary people - many saw a pandemic was due at some point, few saw COVID coming in the six months preceding as very early news came in small fragments from China. Who, if anyone, tends to make specific p…

> many saw a pandemic was due at some point, few saw COVID coming in the six months preceding as very early news came in small fragments from China.

Last years hd a few saying Russia would invade Ukraine (and as many saying it wouldn’t), but of those they thought Ukraine would fold in days and have no support from the west.

Nobody expected Ukraine to successfully repel the invasion.

In 2020 predictions I don’t see any reference to pandemics or other Heath based issues - and covid was already beginning with several cases having being confirmed.

Makes you wonder what minor thing could be known already and about to change the world but completely invisible to us now.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#140

Post by Alpi »

irusensei wrote: post #111
Alpi wrote: post #90

- Russian-Ukraine war loses its momentum on the eastern front, hot war continues. - Azerbaijan is launching full-scale invasion to Nagorno-Karabakh, taking it over in a Blitzkrieg with the support of Turkey. - Russia is forcing Armenia to join Russian Union State, massive protests in Yerevan. - Pro-Russian government is replacing Belorus president who is forced to resign, massibe protests in Minsk. - China is prepari…

Calm down Satan.

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