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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#101

Post by schappim »

Beldin wrote: post #87

- Full Self Driving will be "1-2 years away", much as it has been for the last 7 years - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been the last 40-60 years. - same for other "right around the corner" predictions - the world will change; most of that change is incremental; any real radical shifts will only be apparent with hindsight. - the superrich are going to get loads more superrich; the environment…

Re: - Nuclear fusion "is only 2 decades away", just as it has been the last 40-60 years.

Has recent advances in the last month not made you more optimistic?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#102

Post by hutzlibu »

varjag wrote: post #74
hutzlibu wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"but increasing probability Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine." Not likely. They would have nothing to gain from it. In their narrative, they are protecting the ukrainians ( which are actually russians, whether they want or not) from the fascist ukrainians. Nuking russian soil does not go together with this and Putin struggles already to not loose his base. And any military advantage this would gain, would be of…

I agree it is not likely but their made up reasons have nothing to do with it. The narratives shift weekly and at no point they've been internally consistent.

Hm, I surely did not follow every speech of Putin or RT news in general, but as far as I did, the narrative that the Ukrainian needs to be liberated as Russians, did not change and has been pretty consistent.

What did change, were the various threats towards the west and stated goals of what to achieve and back and forth with mobilisation and such.

Putins goal is clear, he wants a Eurasian Empire. But he is apparently not clear on how to achieve it.

(For example he would like Belarussia to join russia and join the war, but so far he was not able to enforce it )

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#103

Post by timidger »

Dawnyhf2 wrote: post #7

YC will be found to play a tangential role in some kind of fraud. My reasoning is that the stock market crash has exposed many fraudulent companies, YC and its associated partners/orgs lend an air of legitimacy that fraudulent groups will want to co-oped.

Depending on how you want to define fraudulent, it already has https://youtu.be/eYzzPBq8GDU

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#104

Post by MzHN »

ToJans wrote: post #43

Mostly web, as that's my area of expertise. - Start of the movement from cloud/SaaS computing/storage to edge devices/client-side/on-prem. - Amount of new successful SaaS orgs will decimate. The only 2 SaaS markets that will grow will be highly vertical/specialized or very big orgs offering commodity. They both will use value based pricing, but for the first growth will be sales-led and prices will be high, and the s…

> People will start discovering P2P and start using it.

I recently tried to get into P2P for web apps, only to discover that P2P is increasingly a lie.

100% of my users are unable to connect to 100% of my users, due to CGNATs and IPv4/IPv6 mismatches.

I know the percentages are better for some projects.

Maybe once we are fully IPv6 and carriers drop their NATs.

Won't happen next year, if ever, especially the latter.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#106

Post by ianai »

lpss wrote: post #96

I hope Russia will perish to exist

This is the sentiment we’ll see more and more as Russia continues its atrocious regime. The acts of the regime are being identified to the populace of Russia. It may already be a scarlet letter anyone Russian will bare for generations. Think how being a Nazi became absolutely toxic to unheard of for 70+ years after WWII. Only instead of being an ideological labeling it will simply be “Russian.”

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#108

Post by ramblerman »

kqr wrote: post #89

Can people please attach probabilities to their predictions? That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did. Doing so is literally impossible without probabilities assigned.

> That way we can evaluate after the fact how well people did.

How exactly do you propose to do that given the binary knowledge of the event occuring or not...

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#109

Post by timthelion »

s-xyz wrote: post #91

- A new breakthrough from OpenAI will be released, although less sensational than ChatGPT - Content generation and applications of ChatGPT will flood the tech sphere but then stabilize - Mastodon market share will continue to increase, with fluctuating rate, but will not overtake Twitter until similar functionality and performance have been adopted - Twitter will stabilize, but still make some controversial headlines…

What do you mean by twitter performance? I find twitter to be quite slow, especially on mobile. Do you mean functionality or speed?
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