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Buses are as large as they are because the driver's time is valuable. If self-driving cars were cheap you could a bunch of 8 person van/busses on the road that give you most of the environmental/traffic benefit of a bus but could really expand frequency and reach.
If you shrink down 8 person busses to 5 people you have a normal passenger car.
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I think claiming it "will never be delivered" is probably wrong as well.
The feature is impossible to implement with the sensor suite that comes with the car.
You could however argue that the current computer isn't powerful enough to run the software required for vision based L3/L4.
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Or just how well they designed it
Imagine thinking that firing 50% of the staff that built an enormously complicated piece of software, and having the service stay up and running means that the people who built it were overpaid or overstaffed.
How times have changed since Tesla was untouchable here. What happened and why does everyone talk like they've always hated Tesla (and Elon)? Surely it's mostly the same crowd as when Tesla was loved and Elon a superstar.
Musk bought Twitter and fired 50% od the staff without Twitter crashing, which exposed how overstaffed and overpayed thise guys were
Even if they are understaffed now it wouldn't immediately collapse.
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Imagine thinking that firing 50% of the staff that built an enormously complicated piece of software, and having the service stay up and running means that the people who built it were overpaid or overstaffed.
"We don't need firefighters. No one has died in a fire in years!"
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20 years ago, the Linux kernel version was 2.5, we had the Intel Pentium III, Apple just released the Lamp, Nickelback was Top 1 with "How you remind me?" for over 16 weeks, Warcraft 3 got released and I bought my first Palm Tungsten. This reads like another world because it was and I suspect the world will change even faster in the next 20. We will have cat like AGI before 2042.
I think the rate of change over the next 20 will be slower. Mostly just because the rate of change in computing power has slowed down. AI training compute has been doubling every 6 months. But how long can that continue without fundamental improvements in hardware? At this rate would need to increase compute by 1000x by 2027.
Mainstream full self driving would just create massive traffic and gridlock - pointless in the end. The induced demand would outweigh the benefits. States are better off acknowledging that sprawling car dependent cities are not sustainable. High frequency busses in the interim with rail transit is the real solution. Current self driving technology plus some key infrastructure changes with dedicated bus lanes and prio…
> Just think about it - what happens when everyone has a self driving car? All of those cars that are otherwise parked are now on the road. Traffic. Same thing that happened pre-COVID with "ridesharing". Explain this logic? To my understanding, ride sharing increased traffic because it increased demand for car travel. They did this by being a better choice than other modes of transit. But I believe the idea of ride s…
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> This reads like another world because it was So...another world with a slightly different taste in music and less advanced consumer electronics? Pretty picayune difference.
Ever gone out in a small town or village? Not much changed in the last 20 years, it was mostly at home. Take away the flatscreens, smartphones, tablets and calendars (doh) and nobody could tell you if it's the 00s, 10s or 20s.
Let that sink in. And you know what is not arriving anytime soon? Even “cat-level” AGI is just not going to happen within next 20 years at least.
20 years ago, the Linux kernel version was 2.5, we had the Intel Pentium III, Apple just released the Lamp, Nickelback was Top 1 with "How you remind me?" for over 16 weeks, Warcraft 3 got released and I bought my first Palm Tungsten. This reads like another world because it was and I suspect the world will change even faster in the next 20. We will have cat like AGI before 2042.
There are a lot of pop crap radio now, WoW just released another expansion, the latest iPhone has some pretty forgettable features compared to previous iterations, etc. It’s not like the world is exponentially different in 20 years.
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Traffic would get somewhat worse. People would be willing to commute somewhat farther because they could spend that time reading the paper or working instead of driving the car. Errands that used to be annoying enough to delay get more frequent as well for the same reason. If we get to a car share model, where you subscribe and pay per mile, that might offset some car use. Really we need all of the above - self-drivi…
These are really odd predictions. People would be running more errands instead of leaving them on the last minute? It seems like a definite stretch to me to think that it would make traffic worse. Also some people enjoy driving and drive out of enjoyment.