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Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#111

Post by jacquesm »

mutatio wrote: post #78
samwillis wrote: post #59

I just fined the Tesla share price incredible hard to justify, I know they are a growing company with big ambitions but the numbers just don't work. Tesla: - Market cap: $392.78 billion - Q3 units sold: 343,000 VW Group: - Market cap: $70.98 billion - Q3 units sold: 2,181,300 Obviously they are slightly different companies, Tesla sell solar and battery storage products. And VW Group have brands that sell to a part of…

It's not really about units sold though is it? I guess yes, usually it's a good approximation, but you could sell a single unit for $5bn and have a superior net profit. Tesla's profit margin looks to be ~15%, whilst VW is at 3% - I'd love to know what it does to those numbers. Tesla's net income for Sept 2022 actually appears to be much higher than VW, if I am interpreting the numbers correctly.

Usually profit margins shrink as volume goes up. You can't sell that many cars into the premium segment simply because the segment doesn't support the volume.

VW sells a ton of cheap and small vehicles.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#112

Post by mcv »

akmarinov wrote: post #85
Ekaros wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also looking at history and how things are going at Twitter. There might be real worry of him doing some weird pivot and then rolling it back again. Causing loss of money and trust.

Like announcing he’s taking the company private and then backing out? Something like that?

Musk has shown plenty of erratic behaviour around Tesla as well. And especially with the Twitter drama, I think Tesla might be better off without him.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#113

Post by badpun »

akmarinov wrote: post #92
bamboozled wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla does software really well ? What ?

Compared to BMW, they’re light years ahead. There’s been 12 updates to Teslas in the last month OTA, BMW did one in 2022 and any car with iDrive 7 (their first to support OTA updates) had to be taken in to the dealer to do the update. Also looking at the apps, sending a command through Tesla’s app is instant, meanwhile BMW’s app makes you look at a spinner for 2 minutes. I’m sure Tesla’s likely cutting corners somewh…

> There’s been 12 updates to Teslas in the last month OTA

That's not something I would ever want for my car. I don't want my vehicle to be at the end of someone's CI/CD pipeline. I would much prefer say a quarterly cadence of rigorously tested, solid new releases. But, that's more expensive and harder to do, so hardly anyone's doing that anymore for non-critical software.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#114

Post by oblio »

s3000 wrote: post #106
samwillis wrote: post #59

I just fined the Tesla share price incredible hard to justify, I know they are a growing company with big ambitions but the numbers just don't work. Tesla: - Market cap: $392.78 billion - Q3 units sold: 343,000 VW Group: - Market cap: $70.98 billion - Q3 units sold: 2,181,300 Obviously they are slightly different companies, Tesla sell solar and battery storage products. And VW Group have brands that sell to a part of…

I have seen two arguments: 1. Tesla has heavily invested in robotics. They will be able to build cars much cheaper than their competitors. 2. Tesla has long-term lithium delivery contracts. They will be able to pay far less for their batteries while the prices for their competitors will massively increase I have not verified those claims but that would make Tesla's valuation more reasonable. There is also the self-dr…

> 1. Tesla has heavily invested in robotics. They will be able to build cars much cheaper than their competitors.

Wasn't this proven wrong a bunch of times? Especially back with the Model 3 delivery issues and the "build in a tent" thing? There was an entire period where their delivery woes were blamed on them trying to automate stuff that wasn't worth it or couldn't really be made reliable.

And by the way, if you think Toyota isn't investing in robotics and hasn't been for decades, I have a bridge in Bucharest to sell you ;-)

> 2. Tesla has long-term lithium delivery contracts. They will be able to pay far less for their batteries while the prices for their competitors will massively increase

This would be interesting to read about, do you happen to have a link?

> There is also the self-driving car race. Whoever wins that will take almost all profits. With Twitter, Musk doesn't look too good in the software department right now. However, if you ignore Google, then Tesla still has a chance to win.

Let's discount self-driving cars for the next decade when evaluating any company, I'd say. The tech just isn't there yet.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#115

Post by oblio »

hcks wrote: post #104
stockerta wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It never made sense. Its a hype train that will collide with reality one day.

Tesla made more money than VW selling 10 times less cars in September 2022.

Tesla sells luxury vehicles (by world standards) and there are only so many people who can afford them.

Either Tesla stops growing at this rate, or they will have to "stoop" to cars costing $15k, in which case their profit margins will drop like a rock.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#116

Post by parineum »

bmitc wrote: post #97
parineum wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They absolutely have high volume manufacturing, and there is no reason why they will suddenly struggle with producing high volumes of EVs. The fact that they are struggling to satisfy the demand for their electric vehicles right now is a pretty good reason to believe that.

Is it? The Kia Telluride has been selling above sticker price since it was released a few years ago. The demand is high for almost all their cars.

There was a time where I would have bought an Ioniq 5 Limited (When the credit was still applicable and my used car was worth more) but couldn't find one anywhere. I was willing to pay a mild markup (which many dealers near me where charging).

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#117

Post by oblio »

jsemrau wrote: post #40
bamboozled wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does this have to do with anything sorry ? If the current price was warranted why would the price be lowered regardless of the output ?

There is an assumption that Tesla has peaked as competitors are successful in gaining market share. Rivian's successful of Amazon launch [1], Lucid is starting in Europe [2], and NIO is opening up in Europe. Is Tesla, given that scenario, really a 372B company (as of Dec 23rd) or rather a 45B company like Ford and GM? [1] https://app.finclout.io/t/9Q2MQ8d [2] https://app.finclout.io/t/mOaRRwY

I love how you're listing Rivian, Lucid, NIO, but you're completely discounting the company that has invested tens of billions of euros into an EV platform, and will invest tens of billions of euros more over the next few years.

VW.

FYI, Mercedes, BMW, Hyundai/Kia are also building huge EV platforms. I don't have sales numbers for them, but I imagine all of them are already selling tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of EVs, each.

Maybe they're not sold in the US? That would explain some of the comments here.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#118

Post by hef19898 »

blitzar wrote: post #79

Its almost like a very large shareholder knew, and despite saying they were not selling, was dumping shares the last couple of weeks on the hard core believers as quick as they could

Never let a good crisis, ehm opportunity, go wasted.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#119

Post by hef19898 »

oatmeal_croc wrote: post #46
bell-cot wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a problematic "Full Self-Fighting" option.

Looking at current state of FSD, it'll probably end up shooting itself.

Better still than shooting other friendlies. That being said, one has to start somewhere.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#120

Post by jacquesm »

chii wrote: post #83
karmasimida wrote: post #57

Model 3 is overpriced As a tech worker myself I don’t want to support him at this moment either. I don’t like him for what is doing with Twitter drama.

> I don’t like him for what is doing with Twitter drama. i doubt boycotting the car would change his behaviour.

That's not how boycotts work. If enough people do it you can be sure that Musk will notice, it is the cumulative effect of individual actions that are at the root of a successful boycott.
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