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Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

reuters.com

101–110 of 185 posts

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#101
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess so, but just because some sweet subsidies are coming January 1 so everyone is procrastinating orders to that date. In practice it’s just Tesla “chipping in” a bit of the profit boost it will get next year, to avoid ruining their quarterly sales metrics. Either way the TSLAQ crowd will have a field day with all the negative attention Musk is getting: they’re toast, they can’t sell without discounts, they’re no…

What is TSLAQ?

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Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#102

The car industry caught up and Tesla is no longer the best electric around. It was just a matter of time on when their valuation would tank.

No not really. Tesla massively leads in EV deliveries still. None of the other EV manufacturers have really reached high volume manufacturing yet.

That’s not true…

VW Group and MG (and some of the other Chinese companies) are all producing EV’ in significant volumes

In VW’s case it’s split across multiple brands but in 2021 they produced ~600,000 cars whereas Tesla produced ~900,000 cars

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#103
post #76

I just fined the Tesla share price incredible hard to justify, I know they are a growing company with big ambitions but the numbers just don't work. Tesla: - Market cap: $392.78 billion - Q3 units sold: 343,000 VW Group: - Market cap: $70.98 billion - Q3 units sold: 2,181,300 Obviously they are slightly different companies, Tesla sell solar and battery storage products. And VW Group have brands that sell to a part of…

I don't believe market cap to sales is a good ratio to look at when the margins are so different. A forward P/E of 25 for a company growing 50% YoY is not unheard of. Since you picked VW as reference, i had to look them up they have forward P/E 4.84 > trailing P/E 4.66 meaning they are shrinking (?)

While a 25 PE is not unheard of at all, they have been up on much higher levels (190+ IIRC) before this price fall.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#104

I just fined the Tesla share price incredible hard to justify, I know they are a growing company with big ambitions but the numbers just don't work. Tesla: - Market cap: $392.78 billion - Q3 units sold: 343,000 VW Group: - Market cap: $70.98 billion - Q3 units sold: 2,181,300 Obviously they are slightly different companies, Tesla sell solar and battery storage products. And VW Group have brands that sell to a part of…

It never made sense. Its a hype train that will collide with reality one day.

Tesla made more money than VW selling 10 times less cars in September 2022.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#105

The notion of “share price” is something I haven’t ever really understood. As I understand it, if four people are queueing up to buy stock A for [$10, $9, $8, $7] and four other people are in line to sell for [$10, $11, $12, $13] then the people at the front match up and swap one unit of stock for $10, and the stock exchange lists A as being last valued at $10. Stock B’s order books have four buyers at [$10, $1, $1,…

> Do exchanges give us insight into what their order books actually look like, instead of just quoting the last price where a buyer and seller matched?

They do. I haven't seen depth info past the best bid/offer (maybe exists? I'm not an expert), but I see the bid and ask prices with sizes in my broker's app in realtime. "Last price" is just one useful bit of information.

The theory behind showing the last price is that an actual matched transaction feels less likely to be "wrong" (over short periods) than bid/ask in illiquid cases. Sometimes there really just aren't people on one side ready to buy/sell, and the ”$1 $1 $1” would say something less realistic, not more.

Good question though, dunno why anyone would downvote.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#106

I just fined the Tesla share price incredible hard to justify, I know they are a growing company with big ambitions but the numbers just don't work. Tesla: - Market cap: $392.78 billion - Q3 units sold: 343,000 VW Group: - Market cap: $70.98 billion - Q3 units sold: 2,181,300 Obviously they are slightly different companies, Tesla sell solar and battery storage products. And VW Group have brands that sell to a part of…

I have seen two arguments:

1. Tesla has heavily invested in robotics. They will be able to build cars much cheaper than their competitors.

2. Tesla has long-term lithium delivery contracts. They will be able to pay far less for their batteries while the prices for their competitors will massively increase

I have not verified those claims but that would make Tesla's valuation more reasonable.

There is also the self-driving car race. Whoever wins that will take almost all profits. With Twitter, Musk doesn't look too good in the software department right now. However, if you ignore Google, then Tesla still has a chance to win.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and Tesla at $33.74B. But VWs debt is mostly due to them operating as a bank that sells loans to their customers to buy their cars. So it's more nuanced than just folding the into the calculation. Most other car manufactures don't do that directly. Point is that in broad strokes it doesn't add up.

So Tesla's enterprise value is $426.5 billion and VW's is $473.9 billion? Regarding the "operating as a bank", are we talking about net debt? I'd guess that if VW loaned money to customers those loans would be assets , right? They wouldn't get the cash from the customer, but they'd get something that looks about as good for their balance sheet hopefully?

right, but they get the financing for those loans from other banks or from the bond market. they can't just make cars from thin air after all :)

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't just look at mcap but forget to factor in debt. vwgroup $402.96B

Sure, and Tesla at $33.74B. But VWs debt is mostly due to them operating as a bank that sells loans to their customers to buy their cars. So it's more nuanced than just folding the into the calculation. Most other car manufactures don't do that directly. Point is that in broad strokes it doesn't add up.

Wouldn't Price to Book (P/B) sort this out?

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#109

I just fined the Tesla share price incredible hard to justify, I know they are a growing company with big ambitions but the numbers just don't work. Tesla: - Market cap: $392.78 billion - Q3 units sold: 343,000 VW Group: - Market cap: $70.98 billion - Q3 units sold: 2,181,300 Obviously they are slightly different companies, Tesla sell solar and battery storage products. And VW Group have brands that sell to a part of…

Tesla's solar division is an albatross, not an asset.

Re: Tesla shares tank after U.S. discounts doubled on key models

#110

I just fined the Tesla share price incredible hard to justify, I know they are a growing company with big ambitions but the numbers just don't work. Tesla: - Market cap: $392.78 billion - Q3 units sold: 343,000 VW Group: - Market cap: $70.98 billion - Q3 units sold: 2,181,300 Obviously they are slightly different companies, Tesla sell solar and battery storage products. And VW Group have brands that sell to a part of…

Tesla's solar division is an albatross, not an asset.

Absolutely, he bailed out his brother.
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