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Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

link.springer.com

291–300 of 662 posts

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We require young people to get vaccinated as a rule in order to obtain education. Every medical intervention involves risks. So does taking a shower or taking the bus to school. We all have to take risks and some of them are mandated for the good of society. There were very good indications that the vaccine would prevent spread. Public policy decisions which cost lives are not unusual and although tragic, are often n…

>We all have to take risks and some of them are mandated for the good of society. What are some other risky and irreversible interventions mandated upon the individual for the good of society?

Schools spring to mind.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#292

The last paragraph in the article literally indicates there is no causal relationship or proof of any direct link between the vaccination and myocarditis. > "Finally, we cannot provide a definitive functional proof or a direct causal link between vaccination and myocarditis."

"we cannot provide" is very different from "there is no"

It is extremely important, the distinction between these two.

Claiming something doesn't exist requires careful extensive statistics, this study didn't do that, they're saying it out loud.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#293
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The study also states: > In general, a causal link between myocarditis and anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is supported by several considerations: (A) a close temporal relation to vaccination; all cases were found dead within one week after vaccination, (B) absence of any other significant pre-existing heart disease, especially ischaemic heart disease or cardiomyopathy, (C) negative testing for potential myocarditis-caus…

> In general, a causal link between myocarditis and anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is supported by several considerations: (A) a close temporal relation to vaccination; all cases were found dead within one week after vaccination... > Standardized autopsies were performed on 25 persons who had died unexpectedly and within 20 days after anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. This is a weird way of demonstrating a link. They picked…

>This is a weird way of demonstrating a link. They picked them specifically for that, it can't be evidence of something. If they selected 25 people who died of myocarditis regardless of vaccination status or recency, and all 25 turned out to have been recently vaccinated, that would be scary data.

It's perfectly valid as an idea, although a lot of statistical work would need to be done to show that it wasn't just happenstance and/or rule out other causes. But a link, sure.

Consider a depoliticized example: you do 30 autopsies on people who had recently been to a particular location, let's say a certain grocery store in town. Enough people go to this grocery store that it's not uncommon for way more than 30 recent visitors to be dead unexpectedly by random chance. Further, let's say in the general population, a tiny fraction of people die of a certain food-borne illness. You have a pretty good guess what that fraction is.

You do these autopsies and you find that 5 of the people died of this food-borne illness. Much higher than the proportion in the population. Now, you have a lot of additional work to do before you prove that something at the store is causing high rates of the illness: check on comorbidities, other correlated factors, plenty still to be done. But, have you established a potential link? Sure. And you picked them specifically because they died after going to this store.

Also, your idea can work too, also with appropriate statistical work, experimental design, all that. Yours is perhaps a bit better suited to answering a question like: of those who die of myocarditis, what proportion have been recently vaccinated? While a proper study the way the authors did is more like: of those who are recently vaccinated and die unexpectedly, what proportion have myocarditis? Both are valid questions and both certainly get at aspects of the link between the vaccine and myocarditis.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#294
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here isn't the study---of course we should study possible vaccine side effects. The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. As unlikely as it is that an otherwise healthy young person will die from covid, it is even less likely that they'll d…

Ok, so if you believe your chance of dying of covid is improbably small due to age and overall health, why is it necessary to be vaccinated even if there's only a small chance of side effects? Rare is not zero. I don't even take OTC pain killers like advil unless I absolutely feel like I have to.

Because the risk of e.g. dying of myocarditis from the virus still exceeds the risk of dying of myocarditis from the vaccine.

Particularly with the mRNA vaccines there isn't much in the vaccine that isn't in the virus already.

There has to be a name for this fallacy. It is like we're living in the dark ages where contracting covid is just "God's will" and it doesn't count in risk assessments, while no matter how small the risk is of the vaccine that is all that matters.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#295
post #269
post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do those numbers change when you adjust for presence or absence of pre-existing conditions such as obesity and type-2 diabetes?

Please don't. What you are doing is called "P-hacking". Yes, if you keep selecting for subsets of a dataset you'll eventually find one that, just due to random chance, looks like a statistically significant result that proves whatever it is you want to see. That's not the way you do science. As always, xkcd explains it best: https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/882:_Significant

I would not call "P-Hacking" wishing to know the stats of the group you're in, especially if there are significant differences between groups.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#296
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has bugged me since the beginning of this mess. It ought to be possible to say "Hey this looks kind of funny, could the vaccines be having weird effects in this .0000001% of the population?" without daggers coming out all around. It seems perfectly reasonable to me that "The SARS-Cov-2 vaccines occasionally cause health problems" and "Almost everyone should get vaccinated/boosted" are both entirely true statemen…

The issue is that there were coercive government mandates. "Almost everyone should get vaccinated" does not mean the government should coerce everyone into making the correct medical decision by barring them from employment or access to private establishments. Absent a very compelling reason, people should be free to go against medical advice. People have the right to do whatever they want with their bodies. People h…

> a highly specious argument that the unvaccinated were putting other people at significant risk.

The unvaccinated were filling up the hospitals which was putting other people at risk.

Your right to gamble with your health ends when you expect to be able to get treatment if the gamble comes out badly.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#297
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so if you believe your chance of dying of covid is improbably small due to age and overall health, why is it necessary to be vaccinated even if there's only a small chance of side effects? Rare is not zero. I don't even take OTC pain killers like advil unless I absolutely feel like I have to.

Because the risk of e.g. dying of myocarditis from the virus still exceeds the risk of dying of myocarditis from the vaccine. Particularly with the mRNA vaccines there isn't much in the vaccine that isn't in the virus already. There has to be a name for this fallacy. It is like we're living in the dark ages where contracting covid is just "God's will" and it doesn't count in risk assessments, while no matter how smal…

Because the risk of e.g. dying of myocarditis from the virus still exceeds the risk of dying of myocarditis from the vaccine.

It's good to point that out, but the first term needs to be multiplied by the chance of getting the virus.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#298
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It states that they cannot provide a definitive proof or a causal link, not that there isn't one.

As we say in epidemiology (and other fields), absence of evidence, isn't evidence of absence.

but it is somewhat suggestive of absence.

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#299
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since the Musk takeover, conspiracy theorists on $8Chan have talked about Grant Wahl dying suddenly because of the "clot shot". Then we find out he died of a ruptured aortic aneurysm. Then people still refuse to believe it because it doesn't fit their narrative they're pushing. And anyone who dies suddenly must have died because of the vaccine. https://twitter.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1603103342481342465 This killed…

People will believe whatever they want to believe, just let them stew.

This works until it leads to politicians asking for grand juries to investigate anyone associated with the vaccine.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/13/ron-desantis...

Re: Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination

#300
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There were very good indications that the vaccine would prevent spread. Now that we know that to be not true, do you support removing the covid jab from the schedule required in school?

I do not have children so I have no stake in the matter and I do not feel that Id am sufficiently informed about the particulars at this point to have an opinion.

I happened to stumble across this [0], on the effectiveness of a third covid vaccination for 18-29 year olds, while looking for recent (omicron) studies quantifying how well vaccines keep people out of hospitals, and thought I'd pass it along:

> To prevent one COVID-19 hospitalisation over a 6-month period, we estimate that 31207–42836 young adults aged 18–29 years must receive a third mRNA vaccine. Booster mandates in young adults are expected to cause a net harm: per COVID-19 hospitalisation prevented, we anticipate at least 18.5 serious adverse events from mRNA vaccines, including 1.5–4.6 booster-associated myopericarditis cases in males (typically requiring hospitalisation). We also anticipate 1430–4626 cases of grade ≥3 reactogenicity interfering with daily activities (although typically not requiring hospitalisation). University booster mandates are unethical because they: (1) are not based on an updated (Omicron era) stratified risk-benefit assessment for this age group; (2) may result in a net harm to healthy young adults; (3) are not proportionate: expected harms are not outweighed by public health benefits given modest and transient effectiveness of vaccines against transmission; (4) violate the reciprocity principle because serious vaccine-related harms are not reliably compensated due to gaps in vaccine injury schemes; and (5) may result in wider social harms. We consider counterarguments including efforts to increase safety on campus but find these are fraught with limitations and little scientific support.

As an fyi, I also bumped into stats saying that it was something like 5-6 times less likely for vaccinated people to end up in the hospital (although most people who end up in the hospital are elderly), and vaccinations seem to confer only 15% benefit against long covid. I was hoping to find something breaking hopsitalization down by age and comorbidities in addition to vaccination status, but have had no luck so far.

[0] https://jme.bmj.com/content/early/2022/12/05/jme-2022-108449

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