After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires • Hacker News Board

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#251

Post by safety1st » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:08 AM UTC

todfox wrote: post #210

shaftoe wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds interesting. What's the game?

Hazmat Hijinks. If you happen to visit the website and see the Nintendo Power-esque PDF, tell me, shouldn't that grab the attention of the right person? I know I don't have the best social understanding but I thought I nailed that one. Marketing is just so opaque. I would rather write an OS from scratch. At least I know that can be solved given enough time.

I think the best insight I've ever come across about marketing was in The 4-Hour Workweek by Tim Ferriss. He had a strategy of building marketing campaigns before he built products.

He would go as far as to develop the website and marketing assets, all the way up to and including an order form, spending money on advertising, etc. and see how it performed. And when people hit the order button they'd just get a message which said "currently out of stock - check back soon."

If the numbers coming back from a marketing campaign were good he'd then go on to develop the product.

Now you could debate the ethics of this but the key point is that the best way to figure out the sales and marketing side of a business is trial, error, and measurement of the outcomes. You get a marketing message of some kind out there, and you see if where and how you did it is a winner. You get your message/funnel/whatever as close as possible to an actual sales process. You get as close as you can to measuring specifically buying intent. You defer as much investment in actual product development as you can. Your time and money instead goes into looking for a technique and message that work.

Eventually you get enough info about your market this way that marketing looks much much less opaque. You will come to understand who would buy your shit and why. If you are a creator/maker/artist/developer/etc. and you achieve that understanding you've basically written yourself a golden ticket for many many years at that point, because for you, making the thing which fulfills that demand is really the easy part.

It's understanding what the demand is and who has it that needs your time and attention at the start. Understanding the shape of the hole in the universe which you are going to fill. Once you achieve that everything else falls into place.

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#252

Post by dasil003 » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:09 AM UTC

marcusverus wrote: post #206

travisjungroth wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2m each is not "Fuck you" money perhaps but it is enough to comfortably retire That is exactly what "fuck you" money means. It's not about having so much money you couldn't possibly want for anything. People will always want. It's about having enough that you're not beholden to anyone for your basic needs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJjKP8vYjpQ&ab_channel=Youtu...

Right!? I always thought it meant something like "enough money to tell literally anybody to go fuck themselves without fear of the economic consequences". But I did a little googling and apparently "fuck you money" is one of those things that doesn't really have a clear-cut definition. Which is weird. In theory there is some specific dollar that you earn which puts you over the line into "fuck you" money. If you're a…

It really doesn't work that way, for several reasons.

First, you can't predict what will happen with the economy vis-a-vis your investments and cost-of-living. Sure there are rules of thumb, but depending your age and the current situation, assumptions like "I can perpetually do a 4% drawdown" may or may not be reliable.

Second, the ability to say FU to everyone is not a black and white decision. Perhaps you value earning more to live a higher lifestyle in the short-term, with some optionality to say FU if things go sideways. Other people might have been burnt and would rather live a life of poverty than be forced to capitulate to The Man one more time. In the immortal words of Lawrence from Office Space: "you don't need a million dollars to do nothing". Most people probably fall somewhere in between.

And last but not least, declaring financial independence raises new existential questions which people may not be ready to answer. Having a job gives a baseline social connection and sense of communal utility. To actually declare financial independence poses a risk of alienation, which may have no upside once the immediate threat of short-term dependence on one's employer is removed.

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#253

Post by pfych » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:11 AM UTC

ElijahLynn wrote: post #111

sophacles wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another long-time linux user here: During the pandemic I finally decided to get a little bit more into gaming and figured I'll try it on linux to see if it'll work and if nothing else, the technical challenge would be fun. Fortunately I like games after all, because there wasn't any real challenge to getting things working the wine/proton folks have done A LOT to make this stuff just work. I play overwatch and other…

I still haven't looked this up yet, so is Wine now Proton? Can you share the history here?

Proton is Valves fork of Wine with optimisations made specifically for playing games.

Proton is built into Steam for linux and should "just work" with any game purchased through Steam. It's also possible to use proton like standard Wine and run any Windows application outside of Steam.

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#254

Post by brundolf » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:19 AM UTC

htag wrote: post #201

brundolf wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flipside is that it's a lottery. Steam is overflowing with new indie games every day, and many very good ones die in obscurity. You really have to get lucky and go viral But yeah, the entry fee for that lottery is at a historic low, which is still great (especially for hobby devs who don't care about the rest!)

Is it a straight lottery (random chance), or does marketing play a role along with the game itself?

Marketing definitely has an impact, even just social media stuff, but unless you've got a AAA-sized marketing budget there will still be a significant amount of chance involved

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#255

Post by treewalking » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:33 AM UTC

fnordpiglet wrote: post #240

ghaff wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're assuming withdrawing at a safe withdrawal rate you're assuming you're not compounding. You're assuming a safe withdrawal rate from principal/dividends/interest that will, on average, leave the principal constant. Of course, if you're older and are not looking to pass down money you may be fine with drawing down principal to some degree. So, yes, $2m should probably be modeled at about $80K income per year b…

I said an annuity. An annuity would draw the principal down as well, and you generally make a drawdown assumption that leaves you with some safe margin for extended life and maybe some inheritance.

If you model it as a lifetime annuity with inflation adjustment you are looking at more like 50k/year income at the outset were you to buy today.

My understanding is that annuities provide in general a worse return than the so called 4% rule on average.

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#256

Post by kirse » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:39 AM UTC

todfox wrote: post #200

dabeeeenster wrote: post #76

So this happened to a guy that worked for me. Loved video games, super talented front end dev. Made a horror game in Unity at evenings and weekends with his best friend. Launched it on Steam. Very low sales. But he learnt a huge amount about marketing and game design based on player feedback. Designed a second game, put all the marketing learnings into it, 48 hours after launch the biggest streamer on twitch was stre…

After four years working on my retro game nearly full time, and several launches, I still don't understand marketing enough to understand what to do differently. A lot of the advice out there is something like: "create a community" or "go join several communities" or "get to know other indie devs on Twitter". To me, this simply feels fake. I don't really participate in any online communities. I spend enough time in f…

what's the point of working so hard if nobody gets to enjoy it but me?

Life starts posing those existential questions at the extremes of sacrifice, especially when you're working for something your brain subconsciously knows could potentially turn out to be vaporware.

If you're going to play the game of wanting users, then 1) immediate and regular program-shaping user feedback is king and 2) many overnight successes take longer than expected [1]. At 4 years in you're really just getting started with learning. Obviously you're in the phase now where you recognize you need help and can't do it all yourself, so how badly do you want your Everest? It always takes teams to reach any great summit.

[1] https://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/2008/05/guit...

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#257

Post by antiatheist » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:45 AM UTC

todfox wrote: post #200

dabeeeenster wrote: post #76

So this happened to a guy that worked for me. Loved video games, super talented front end dev. Made a horror game in Unity at evenings and weekends with his best friend. Launched it on Steam. Very low sales. But he learnt a huge amount about marketing and game design based on player feedback. Designed a second game, put all the marketing learnings into it, 48 hours after launch the biggest streamer on twitch was stre…

After four years working on my retro game nearly full time, and several launches, I still don't understand marketing enough to understand what to do differently. A lot of the advice out there is something like: "create a community" or "go join several communities" or "get to know other indie devs on Twitter". To me, this simply feels fake. I don't really participate in any online communities. I spend enough time in f…

Why don't you recruit those playtesters as beta users to promote your game?

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#258

Post by travisjungroth » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:47 AM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #218

travisjungroth wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recommend watching the clip if you haven't. It doesn't that you actually go an retire, it means that you can .

I'm not sure how that contradicts what I wrote. It's above US median income, albeit without benefits. So, it's of course reasonable for someone to decide they don't need to work any longer with that income stream while others may feel differently.

At least for what I'm saying, it's not that someone would "decide they don't need to work any longer". This is what contradicts what you're saying.

It is about significantly improving your economic baseline, your p90 negative outcome. You can be making a million dollars a year and still be needy as hell. You need to keep your job, need to your investments stay up, need interest rates to stay down. If you're leveraged, there's a decent chance you'll go broke on a long enough timeline. And you'll always be partly aware of it. Your baseline is getting a job you hate so you don't go homeless.

If you have 2 million in the bank and don't leverage too hard, your baseline is being the average American while working 0 hours a week. You can do that until you figure out whatever is next, instead of sending out resumes.

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#259

Post by chaostheory » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:48 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #231

chaostheory wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the same conclusion I came to. Many Canadians are now against immigration due to their housing crisis. What they don’t realize is that Canada has been hit with a demographic bomb in the 1970s that other countries are now only starting to experience. Ie without immigration, the retired elderly will soon outnumber working age adults who contribute to the economy and tax revenue They only have two choices now: *…

Three. Increase productivity (per capita output), increase taxes, specifically pursue high income society development paths (including on who you allow to immigrate, such that high income immigrants promptly become high tax contributors). Canada is more or less already doing this. They'll likely just have to boost taxation further.

You’re not wrong, but increasing productivity is not easy especially in a place that is both highly regulated and highly taxed. Your most productive and talented workers tend to move south due to both the higher pay and lower cost of living.

You’re right about the other two either already happening or inevitable.

Re: After 20 years the Dwarf Fortress devs have to get used to being millionaires

#260

Post by antiatheist » Wed, Dec 14, 2022, 4:48 AM UTC

todfox wrote: post #243

aschearer wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the game is "Hazmat Hijinks: Total Meltdown" on Steam. Here's some tough love: The video takes way too long to get to gameplay. Screenshots do a poor job explaining what the mechanic is. I've read the capsule image, watched some of the trailer, looked at several of the screenshots and still can't tell you what the gameplay loop is. Sort of a top down puzzle thing? With a "match the color" mechanic? The art i…

Thanks for your feedback. I agree it needs visual improvements. I chose not to spend money on an artist -- just had too much in the project already. The trailer should have been done by a 3rd party. I don't grasp what is going to appeal to someone anyway. You know what? I won't make any more. I think I'm done. I'm not interested in learning what people like or adjusting to what's popular. Why on earth would I go thro…

Looks like a Chip Challenge clone/upgrade, the surface mechanics aren't very obvious in the video on steam for someone who doesn't know it.

Perhaps some contrasting animations or visual guides would help with that.