Live data from Hacker News

What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

novum.substack.com

261–270 of 393 posts

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#261
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think TFA meant "resolved nothing" as a literal nothing, and they meant in a more general sense of the world, not just seen from the tech point of view. Sure, we made cool things in tech during this era, but was it worthwhile on a global scale, on a social level, in an economic sense? That is debatable. It is nonsensical to say that the creation of the SSD or Github has created a more fair society. Apples and…

> Sure, we made cool things in tech during this era, but was it worthwhile on a global scale, on a social level, in an economic sense? That is debatable. Globally, I do think that it's getting more and more difficult each year for organizations and countries to hide immoral behavior. For example, the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 was kept secret from the West for a few days (maybe a few weeks) whereas I nowadays would i…

> Similarly, the situation with the Uyghurs is well known and other countries do take that into account when interacting with China

... by ignoring the situation.

In essence, the situations you describe are an illustration on how the tech changes some things (like gathering and sharing information about atrocities) that demonstrably turn out to be not really relevant and not causing a meaningful change, since, as it turns out, the underlying reasons for actually implementing difficult political change (or refusing to do so) don't change just because tech makes it easier to talk about it.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I try not to comment to 'defend my views' because it's a bit lame, I have to plainly say I am not "just opening my eyes to the huge role central banks play in the economy." I have been following markets many years, both as an investor and because I enjoy reading about economic history (also as part of my study). My whole point with that sentence was - did you ever pay attention to a Jackson Hole conference befo…

If it helps, they weren't talking to you. As soon as you put something out there in the world people are going to have conversations about it, with their own temperaments, that they'd never have with you. You can take that personally, or realise that their comment really has nothing to do with you nor is meant for you to read it.

Yeah, that’s a good point. Thanks for mentioning it

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sure, we made cool things in tech during this era, but was it worthwhile on a global scale, on a social level, in an economic sense? That is debatable. Globally, I do think that it's getting more and more difficult each year for organizations and countries to hide immoral behavior. For example, the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 was kept secret from the West for a few days (maybe a few weeks) whereas I nowadays would i…

> Similarly, the situation with the Uyghurs is well known and other countries do take that into account when interacting with China ... by ignoring the situation. In essence, the situations you describe are an illustration on how the tech changes some things (like gathering and sharing information about atrocities) that demonstrably turn out to be not really relevant and not causing a meaningful change, since, as it…

How do you know? I wouldn't be surprised if many individuals and organizations have changed their behavior based on some country's actions. Being unwilling to export to the country as well as being unwilling to buy from the country are definitely things that are happening right now. In effect, this results in the country having less power.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#264

The folks reading this are going to get the wrong message. They are going to believe that rising interest rates will magically make it so that the most highly valued companies are the ones that produce the most societal good. This may start to happen more to a certain extent, but it's a totally false assumption. The most valuable companies before and after this era of low interest rates were and continue to be monopo…

I'd argue that 1. Software continues to be critical in any part of the economy. 2. People continue to spend more and more time online.

So maybe many of the existing companies we work at will require less workforce but I don't see how the software engineers market can reverse in terms of offers/demand ratios anytime soon.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#265

What if you're just too young to remember a business cycle because you weren't an adult or were still in college so were insulated from 2008? Its funny to read all these takes from "kids" who think that all the fundamentals have totally changed at this point like the economy has turned some fundamental 180 degree turn and we're heading back towards >6% rates forever. It hasn't. The Fed is going to crash the economy i…

> What if you're just too young to remember a business cycle because you weren't an adult or were still in college so were insulated from 2008?

This. Whole article is trying to blame a whole lot of trends which were already very much present in 2008 (and in some cases specifically responsible for 2008) on what happened afterwards when interest rates were lower

It's not low interest rates that make people believe that Uber has a route to profitability (higher interest rates might kill off some small-margin businesses reliant on debt funding and reduce valuation of all companies; they won't make people investing sovereign wealth funds in US equities smarter about which companies they allocate their funds to), and higher interest rates certainly aren't going to encourage companies to reinvest their cash piles in R&D or help new market entrants compete away the monopoly power that generates those cash piles

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#266
The whole system is so dysfunctional, it's no longer funny.

- fiscal policies (money printing)

- prevalence of bullshit jobs (70%+ of jobs are unnecessary/harmful)[0]

- exploitation of nature / future for profit motives of individuals

- systemic economic inequality

- subsidizing the most harmful things (oil, animal agriculture, plastics)

- agriculture based on degrading soils and spraying poisons

- health/medicine focused on perpetual treatment instead of prevention of diseases

If it doesn't work as it should, it's always the money somewhere behind the curtain.

One can't but think of the final chapters of the Hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy, where administrative workers and phone headset cleaners hoard tree leaves, in an attempt to reconstruct the economic system (note to myself: read it again).

[0] https://libcom.org/article/phenomenon-bullshit-jobs-david-gr...

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#267

I've been saying this for the last 5 years. People don't realize how powerful the 'money printer' is. All the money which exists in the system was created out of nothing and injected into the economy through a few specific channels (mostly as credit backed by debt). IMO, everything in modern society is influenced in some way by interest rates; even culture and morality. Money printing can distort the market pricing m…

You are naive as the m3 is not just m1. The original thinking is that once increase the base it has to cut back. It never did and for some reason (china) the inflation never came! It was until the pandemic underway and masked so much that the world except USA has too late to control the inflation. And putin is not helping. And that firm did not die especially big one does not help, just like russia and later china.

The idea that interest rate has to be at least 2% above the inflation will cut and hurt. It is not about the 0 interest rate. But the inflation and the difficulty and having the political will to let the central bank (and they have the clear head) to do the right thing, guy.

So far only USA seemed working. And if war in Europe and later in pacific rim ongoing, once again we have USA.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#268
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I searched and couldnt find anything about a Dutch wealth tax, just answers saying they dont have one. Do you have a source? I wasn't aware of any western countries which have wealth taxes, but I was surprised to find that Norway, Spain, and Switzerland do have some. https://taxfoundation.org/net-wealth-tax-europe-2022/#:~:tex... .

Straight from the source: https://www.belastingdienst.nl/wps/wcm/connect/en/income-in-... Summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxation_in_the_Netherlands#Bo...

This looks like capital gains to me. Taxation on income from wealth, not wealth itself.

https://www.belastingdienst.nl/wps/wcm/connect/en/income-in-...

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#269
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was a novel idea, at some point. For the stock it is a tautology, but for generally determining the worth it is a deep idea. It requires buying into a point of view of this model and, like all models, it is a (useful) approximation. If one accepts that the worth of something is the price that supply and demand establish, there is no room for workers being underpaid (or overpaid), according to this model. They ar…

Ehh, we have pretty good policy levers to alter the supply of labor for a given profession.

We can have policy levers for anything.

What I am saying is that under the market model supply and demand determine the worth of something. Under that logic, nothing can be overvalued or undervalued. Of course that model is too simplistic.

Re: What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bought back shares are either retired or held in the company’s treasury stock. Either way, there’s no voting right for these shares.

Again, this decreases actionable accountability to the external world. This should make it clear why stock buybacks would be preferred. Fewer people with standing to sue if they don't agree with management's direction.

so more shares is more accountable?

I'm not sure how you get that more shares means more owners. Doesn't really seem like the limiting factor.

Post reply on HN