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Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

robkhenderson.substack.com

121–130 of 651 posts

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#121
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people never want to acknowledge their luck, because it doesn't fit the "self-made" narrative. edit: to please the pedants, I should have said "many rich people", as to not imply "all". My fault.

The nuanced take is that luck is something that can be “made” through putting oneself in situations conducive to getting lucky through exposure, networking, and repeated attempts / not giving up. You might be able to get successful people to admit that they were in the right place at the right time, but they’ll almost always qualify that with how much effort they put in to be in that situation.

If you want to catch a MLB game ball, you have to a) attend a game, b) pay attention to every ball hit, c) practice actually catching a ball, and (for some) bring a glove. If you're particularly savvy, you can even purchase tickets for seats in an area to where balls are commonly hit, and if you're determined, you can go to lots of games.

However, you're only getting that ball if it's hit in your direction. You can attend hundreds of games and still never have one hit close enough to catch.

While missing one or more preparation steps (e.g., attending a game) may rule out the possibility of catching a game ball, for every person who does catch one, there are dozens if not hundreds of people who prepare at least as much and still never do.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#122
Pure trash. Be yourself, emulate whoever you want (or no one). Do what feels right. If someone looks down on you for riding a bike to work (regardless of your current "status"), #1 they are idiots and their respect and admiration is worth zero and #2 choke them out :). Life is too short for such ridiculous minutia.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Granted that based on probability alone he just got lucky but from the details of the story it's not possible to be certain of that. If he can offer a narrative about why and how he knew such a move would have such a result and the narrative fits with reality, then how is he not correct? Yes you can get both lucky and tragically unlucky when it comes to investments, but that doesnt mean there's no such thing as a rat…

IIRC, he went all-in on HEX when it was dirt cheap and picking up volume, because it was a staking coin.

Got it, pure luck, no argument.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#124
post #91
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the real takeaway from his story is to bet big in a new market to get rich. And if you lose it all, earn more and do it again. It would have happened in the early days of the internet just the same. Yes, it's incredibly risky but at least it has a better chance than playing the lottery. Like Nassim Taleb says, bet on things with a limited downside and unlimited upside. And if you don't try, nothing will happen.

I mean, lets get Taleb exactly right here: He basically says don't invest "moderately," -- like putting your large amounts of money in stocks, even index funds, is a bad idea. Invest in both extremes, barbell style. Put MOST of it in something bulletproof (he goes with Treasury Bonds) and then the rest as big bets on long shots.

Really depends on you goals and also current financial security. I would rather receive 50.000$ than a 10% chance at 500.000$. But a richer person would probably choose the latter.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> wearing a $2k Rolex or driving a $70k BMW is frowned upon. But instead they have eccentric "hobbies" requiring $10ks of of equipment, inclusive of "needing" $10k viking stove/range, and $10k subzero fridge/freezer in your kitchen because you are a "foodie" […] Isn’t this conflating status signal with lifestyle? The wealthy have always enjoyed expensive lifestyles and hobbies. In and of itself, expensive hobby equip…

> The wealthy have always enjoyed expensive lifestyles and hobbies. Sorry to jump in. There is a 2003 documentary by the name "Born Rich". This is about the children from the wealthy people and how they are coping with the boredom of being able (afford) to do anything. Many are naturally isolated and invent obscure hobbies and life-styles not fitting their "wealthy statuses". Not sure how it is changing in more respo…

> This is about the children from the wealthy people and how they are coping with the boredom of being able (afford) to do anything.

See also the excellent Korean documentary "Squid Game"!

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Granted that based on probability alone he just got lucky but from the details of the story it's not possible to be certain of that. If he can offer a narrative about why and how he knew such a move would have such a result and the narrative fits with reality, then how is he not correct? Yes you can get both lucky and tragically unlucky when it comes to investments, but that doesnt mean there's no such thing as a rat…

Yes, in any cohort of investors, by nature some random sample or going to outperform in any given year. In fact, statistically the concept of "hot hands" will rear its head because.. some subset of the outperformers will actually outperform over multiple years. It may be skill, it may be luck, or it may be both. But consider that this outperformance & hot-hand phenomenon can be replicated even in purely random games…

I get what you mean and I agree to an extent, but to give an absurd example, if you knew of a company that had a patent on cold fusion, and you had watched it actually work yourself and deployed it at scale in a project successfully, investing in such a venture and having an outsized return would have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with probability.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#127
post #30

Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…

Rich people never want to acknowledge their luck, because it doesn't fit the "self-made" narrative. edit: to please the pedants, I should have said "many rich people", as to not imply "all". My fault.

“Which contributes more to wealth: luck or hard work? Which contributes more to the area of a rectangle: height or width?”

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#129
In the same vein:

- Don't hide your mistakes

- Show that you are vulnerable

- Be yourself

Are all things that work best when you are (contextually) high-status.

Yet we are still culturally promoting them as the things we should all strive for in any situation.

However, it's way easier to be open about my professional mistakes now that I'm recognized by my peers and that I don't do too many of them.

It's simple to expose my vulnerabilities now that I've built a social network that will not hurt me with it because they like and respect me.

And it's certainly great to be able to be myself, now that people around me will say I'm eccentric, and not reject me.

It's like the behavior of men in romantic comedy. If you were to be ugly and awkward, doing what they do would get you arrested. You don't get to play "50 shades" or "twilight" if you are the hunchback of Notredame. It's also why energy, humour and culture are such great assets, allowing you to somewhat help with social status.

One day maybe we will stop selling to our children that life is about this one thing that works in all cases, and admit each life advice is highly contextual.

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