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Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

robkhenderson.substack.com

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Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#51
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people never want to acknowledge their luck, because it doesn't fit the "self-made" narrative. edit: to please the pedants, I should have said "many rich people", as to not imply "all". My fault.

Cynical but doesn't match my experience, plenty of rich people acknowledge luck

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Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#52

Seems decently researched but I don’t know why the author felt compelled to add unsubstantiated and totally unnecessary hyperbole about humans only having succeeded because of imitating the whole shebang. It doesn’t even make sense!

That part the author only skipped over, but I think it's likely true: we are the species that does not just learn how to open boxes by imitation, we are the species that starts a cargo cult hoping for boxes to arrive.

In earlier days, we understood very little of the technology we had, even on the highest expert level. A chimpanzee that does not imitate but only watches to pick up the elements it understands would never be able to become bronze age, no matter the abundance of ore and fuel. The human on the other hand apparently has the ability to trust the unknown and try.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#53

One of the best examples of counter-signaling was Kim Kardashian at the Met Gala. She wore a black dress that covered her from head to toe, including her face. It was kind of a statement that “even my silhouette is famous”.

For those wondering: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Kardashian Even after reading that I don't actually know what this woman is well-known for.

Originally this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Kardashian,_Superstar

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we agree about the phenomena, it's just that the word "signaling" has a false lucidity -- it has an everyday meaning and a related technical meaning that's easy to overlook. The technical meaning is about an equilibrium in a game where "talk is cheap", so that your message would be discounted by observers unless some cost (not necessarily in money) is tied to it. With countersignaling there's an extra level t…

Thanks for the clarification! Sprezzatura might be the quality? conjugation: "They are riffraff. You are sloppy. I am sprezzatura incarnate."

I think that's a good example, yeah.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#55
post #42

Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…

Maybe the real takeaway from his story is to bet big in a new market to get rich. And if you lose it all, earn more and do it again. It would have happened in the early days of the internet just the same. Yes, it's incredibly risky but at least it has a better chance than playing the lottery. Like Nassim Taleb says, bet on things with a limited downside and unlimited upside. And if you don't try, nothing will happen.

No post body was provided.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#56
> If a chimpanzee views a person perform a series of superfluous actions, along with one single necessary action, in order to obtain a piece of food, the chimpanzee will skip the superfluous action, and perform only the necessary one.

> In contrast, children will copy every single action, including the unnecessary ones.

I watched the video, but I'm unconvinced. They tell the kid the box is "magic". Children know the box is not magic. Children know how spells work in cartoon and books. So "magic" is a code word for "please copy all the silly steps as accurate as possible".

The apes have no instruction, so they don't understand the must copy all the silly steps.

I'll also blame school. Children are expected and trained to follow orders of adults even if they don't understand them, because it will be better for them in the future. Did you ever played basketball? Why should you put the ball in the basket if it has a hole in the bottom and the ball will fall down?

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#57

Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…

Granted that based on probability alone he just got lucky but from the details of the story it's not possible to be certain of that. If he can offer a narrative about why and how he knew such a move would have such a result and the narrative fits with reality, then how is he not correct? Yes you can get both lucky and tragically unlucky when it comes to investments, but that doesnt mean there's no such thing as a rat…

No post body was provided.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#58
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people never want to acknowledge their luck, because it doesn't fit the "self-made" narrative. edit: to please the pedants, I should have said "many rich people", as to not imply "all". My fault.

The "luck" of many wealthy people is that they were born to wealthy parents (Walton family, Gates, etc).

[deleted]

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#59

Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…

> Can you imagine if some newspaper interviewed a recent lottery winner [...] But to the ignorant, it all sounds very impressive the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect described by Crichton comes to mind here. It is quite potent when media talk about crypto and usually involves evident logical fallacies that are not dissimilar to Orwellian double-speak. Like the idea that cash is freedom so crypto supporters also support no ca…

> even though you can't buy crypto with cash and crypto cannot be converted directly to cash

I have bought and sold crypto primarily using cash for the last ten years, what are you talking about.

Yes, many people use an exchange. Many do not.

Re: Be wary of imitating high-status people who can afford to countersignal

#60
post #30

Maybe a bit OT: The other day I read an interview with a local guy in his 20s that struck gold with crypto, he'd invest something like $20k, and turned it into $40M. He basically went all in on one alt-coin before the marked exploded late last year, and the coin went up 2000x. When asked about it, he of course came up with a narrative that this wasn't just dumb luck. He had had worked hard for those $20k, and he had…

Rich people never want to acknowledge their luck, because it doesn't fit the "self-made" narrative. edit: to please the pedants, I should have said "many rich people", as to not imply "all". My fault.

The nuanced take is that luck is something that can be “made” through putting oneself in situations conducive to getting lucky through exposure, networking, and repeated attempts / not giving up.

You might be able to get successful people to admit that they were in the right place at the right time, but they’ll almost always qualify that with how much effort they put in to be in that situation.

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