Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#131

Post by pcurve » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

"The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has several investigations open, including a probe into why Teslas seem to disproportionately crash into emergency vehicles parked on the roadside. The agency has set no public timeline for a determination."

I wonder if this is the case of the U.S regulators turning their blind eyes to the problem as to not jeopardize Tesla's standing in the global EV market, much the same way FAA dragged its feet on grounding 737 MAX.

I'm still baffled as to how there has been no meaningful punitive action taken against Musk for all the false claims he has made over the years.

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#132

Post by googlryas » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

govg wrote: post #92

fbdab103 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My ultimate dream is to be able to more or less avoid flying. Hop in my car at 11pm, punch in address, pull out the lay-flat seat, go to sleep, wake-up 7-8 hours away. If I make it a day trip, I can do the entire thing in reverse never having had to pay for a hotel. Living on the coast, I would still have to resort to flying, but there are many places I would enjoy that are reachable in an eight hour drive.

You can do this in practically every EU country, not to mention Asia (I don't know about other parts of the globe) via trains. I don't get why it has to be a car. It's just that the US has zero infrastructure for both inter city as well as intra city public transport outside of like 4 cities.

For one, pull up a satellite view and look at the US anywhere 150 miles away from the west coast.

And we have buses that go between lots of cities(greyhounds). They just suck compared to driving yourself or flying, which is why you'll pretty much only find poor and desperate people on them.

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#133

Post by kaczordon » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:35 PM UTC

sidibe wrote: post #74

MichaelZuo wrote: post #2

It might be a plausible argument for stuff sold 6 years ago when the future was uncertain. But in 2022 I'm not seeing how it's plausible as an excuse. Considering it's still being sold and marketed as 'Full self driving'. Clearly even level 4 autonomy is far beyond what any near future technology is capable of. If at the very least due to the fact that a very commonly encountered condition, construction work, effecti…

I think 2016 it was already widely known by the industry it was going to be very difficult compared to what Tesla was saying, especially without the handicaps they imposed on themselves. No one with knowledge took Tesla's timeline seriously > Clearly even level 4 autonomy is far beyond what any near future technology is capable of I've always been pessimistic about FSD but I think it'd pretty hard to reconcile that q…

They also have remote operators standing by who jump in when the car gets confused tho…

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#134

Post by w0m » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:35 PM UTC

coolbreezetft22 wrote: post #77

perardi wrote: post #19

Well fortunately Tesla has a laser-focused CEO that is devoting his time to making sure a feature which he clearly stated was absolutely critical is being responsibly developed and marketed. Really grateful for that—I’d hate to think this publicly traded company that had a sky-high valuation that was, in part, based off this promise was being led by somebody who is off in the weeds worried about social media or somet…

At this point I'd imagine Tesla is better off with Musk being distracted by his shiny new toy. Though I'd be concerned about the effect he is having on their brand image. Even two years ago I was on the verge of buying a Tesla but ended up cancelling my order in large part because I just couldn't stand the obnoxiousness of Elon and he has gotten orders of magnitude worse since then. His new "demographic"/cult also se…

Seriously True. I bought my 3 in 2019; and my biggest hesitancy at the time was Musk being (insane) and tanking the company preventing me from keeping the car on the road long enough/resale value.

Today? I do <3 my car, but I'd likely not touch new one with a 10 foot pole; especially as a new customer and there actually being other EV Options available. It's distressing because Tesla does (mostly) what I want in a daily driver well.

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#135

Post by kaczordon » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:35 PM UTC

School-Cotton wrote: post #98

sidibe wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think 2016 it was already widely known by the industry it was going to be very difficult compared to what Tesla was saying, especially without the handicaps they imposed on themselves. No one with knowledge took Tesla's timeline seriously > Clearly even level 4 autonomy is far beyond what any near future technology is capable of I've always been pessimistic about FSD but I think it'd pretty hard to reconcile that q…

> actual L4 deployments In some of the cities with the easiest driving conditions in the world.

I wouldn’t call San Francisco easy…

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#136

Post by crote » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:36 PM UTC

slg wrote: post #71

jakelazaroff wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretend you don’t know anything about the different levels. You’re just a random person looking to buy a car. What does “full self driving” sound like to you?

Musk is a charlatan, but why do people act like it is common to buy $40k+ cars like picking up some gum in the checkout aisle? What the features name sounds like is not the only factor here. People don’t buys cars with that lack of thought. What the salespeople say, what the marketing material says, what the manual says, what the CEO says in public, what the feature feels like during a test drive should all matter mo…

This isn't a "9 out of 10 dentists recommend using our product" situation, and cellphone companies have been sued for failing to deliver true unlimited plans.

It is being marketed as "Full Self Driving", and the CEO is publicly saying it is "in beta", "coming next year", and "just waiting for regulatory approval". In reality it needs constant driver supervision, is still primitive enough that it is directly linked to multiple fatalities, has been coming "next year" for over 6 years, and is clearly not even remotely finished. Customers have paid thousands of dollars for a feature they are not able to use, half a decade down the line. They may never be able to use it as advertised at all. The product as delivered is substantially different from anything the company says.

It's like saying your car can do 0 to 60 in less than ten seconds and then delivering a car without an engine - while putting a statement in the small writing that the car currently only reaches this in freefall from a mountain top, but pinky promise that they will install the engine in a few years.

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#137

Post by cal5k » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:36 PM UTC

ttul wrote: post #53

Who would have thought that a camera-only system would struggle to succeed where systems that leverage $20,000 LIDAR sensors and racks of specialized machine learning hardware have met with only limited success?

This whole thread smacks of this type of cynicism - apparently a lot of tech people now really, really hate Elon Musk.

Andrej Karpathy addressed this point in his recent Lex Fridman interview - more sensors aren't necessarily better, and for each sensor you introduce a whole host of supply chain issues and physical constraints. By sticking to one sensor type that contains all of the information theoretically necessary to make decisions they've simplified the problem.

They bet pretty big on this approach... including by making their own silicon. I don't know how anyone could really believe that they're not earnestly pursuing eventual "Full Self-Driving" capability, even though they may still be far from that goal.

What they've achieved thus far is really impressive. That took a LOT of work.

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#138

Post by 11thEarlOfMar » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:37 PM UTC

I'll buy the Full Self-Driving Driving software if and when my insurance comopany offers a discount for doing so.

Otherwise, the car is fantastic to drive without it. I could not care less about his antics.

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#139

Post by holmesworcester » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:38 PM UTC

holmesworcester wrote: post #118

cloudking wrote: post #59

FSD beta is fairly good, certainly better than the standard Autopilot. It's definitely not perfect, but so far for basic driving from point A to B it seems to work well. I can only see the tech improving as it gathers more data and feedback. It's a ML training data problem at this point, no?

It's shockingly good and definitely worth 20% of the value of a car, for me. Two main reasons: 1. Your body doesn't feel tired after driving, because besides the effort of a hand resting on the bottom of the wheel, your body can be completely relaxed the vast majority of the time. 2. When FSD is on, you can completely stop paying attention to navigation-related decisions. You still have to pay attention to driving an…

I'll also say that all of this value will probably be completely unapparent to someone who tries FSD Beta for the first time or infrequently, because like ChatGPT, FSD Beta is not a human-replacing AI that always gives you the right answer. It's a tool you learn to use, by building up a mental model of it over time.

The first time you use FSD Beta will be a lot more like the first time you drove a car in actual traffic, or the first time you drove with a student driver. You'll feel safe enough to keep doing it but it will be very unsettling.

But over time as your model builds of how it behaves, it becomes a tool you'll want to turn on in a growing number of situations. And you'll miss it.

The value will also be much less apparent to someone who does short (<1 hour) drives on familiar roads.

Re: Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud

#140

Post by giantrobot » Sat, Dec 10, 2022, 5:38 PM UTC

superkuh wrote: post #32

I welcome the public's acknowledgement that self-driving vehicles are completely infeasible for even the medium term future. It's just unfortunate that the trigger for this change seems not to be anything about snow, or the inability to replicate human flocking on buried/unmarked roads during winter, etc, but instead more about the current political fallout from Musk's take-over of Twitter.

Musk's Twitter takeover is just an added layer of bullshit on top of the FSD lies. People have paid thousands of dollars for a "feature" that will run them into center dividers, trains, and children but disengage a fraction of a second before impact so it can't be blamed. Tesla also requires NDAs be signed to uphold service agreements and fights tooth and nail to keep FSD's failures out of the news. Meanwhile Musk is over promising the feature and saying it'll be done in a few months and it's the future of the company.

So you'd think if it was so important it would be his primary focus during his supposed 22 hours a day of work.

People can see the problems with FSD and then look over and Musk bought a fucking social media network to go play edgelord troll on. So it's a legitimate topic of discussion because the public is to believe FSD will be ready Real Soon Now™ and is super serial important yet it's obviously not the focus of the huckster that's been continually lying about it.