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Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#91

Post by ceejayoz »

rich_sasha wrote: post #41
adamsmith143 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not so sure about this. That a handful of aggressive and hungry Russo-Warlords with Nukes is any improvement over Putin.

Russia seems to be throwing it's entire war machine at Ukraine. It deployed units, and conscripts, from all over Russia, including the Far East (in fact sourcing conscripts predominantly from poorer regions, and preferentially not ethnic Russians). Chop that machine into 4 or 5 pieces and it's far less scary. Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weake…

> Even the nukes, scary as they could be, are less of a threat when the individual actors are smaller and weaker. They may not even be able to maintain these nukes. And even if they are capable of using them, they are at a more precarious position than eg. Putin at the helm of Mighty Russia.

I'm not sure "the people with nukes would be in a precarious position" is the comforting statement you intended it to be.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#92

Post by DiscoDays »

rasz wrote: post #33
greggarious wrote: post #9

They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? Why don't we honor the Budapest agreement and let the Ukrainians finish off Putin's regime with US made weapons if we are going to play word games about the difference between NATO and a firm and unambiguous promise to defend a nation if they give up their nuclear weapons? The people of Russia don't seem to want this war, they are conscripted. (From wh…

>The people of Russia don't seem to want this war, they are conscripted. (From what I've read from afar.) People in russia want the war, want to win and conquer Ukraine, they just dont want to be conscripted personally.

According to what I am reading on Russian-in-exile liberal media with persistent anti-war agenda [1], just several months ago polls (both state-backed and "independent" ones) suggested that more than half of the Russians were in favour of the war. The article I am citing suggests that there has been a change in opinions recently, but still.

[1] https://meduza.io/feature/2022/11/30/za-peregovory-s-ukraino...

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#93

Post by throwayyy479087 »

clnq wrote: post #69
icare_1er wrote: post #42

The real losers are Europe.

Everyone involved in a war is a loser. It really shows how immature humanity is that we still start new wars.

This is reductionist. The Pax Americana has been maintained by an overwhelming capability for war by the USA. You need to punish in countries that violate international norms. Russia has been truly chucklefucked by this war, and the Norks, Iranians, etc. are going to be significantly more wary of engaging in new wars going forward.

That is how peace is actually maintained.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#94

Post by ceejayoz »

xtian wrote: post #38
greggarious wrote: post #9

They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? Why don't we honor the Budapest agreement and let the Ukrainians finish off Putin's regime with US made weapons if we are going to play word games about the difference between NATO and a firm and unambiguous promise to defend a nation if they give up their nuclear weapons? The people of Russia don't seem to want this war, they are conscripted. (From wh…

> They're running out of things like missles and bombs though IIRC? No they aren’t. New York Times on 12/5: “Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions”

That doesn't actually debunk the point; it potentially implies they've already ripped through the older ones in the stockpiles and are down to just the new, recently-produced ones. They don't have the production capacity to produce at a fast enough rate to keep the pace of cruise missile strikes in Ukraine.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#95

Post by xtian »

foverzar wrote: post #89
keewee7 wrote: post #11

One reason that sanctions haven't had an apparent immediate effect is that the Russian economy was already in a slow downward spiral. The Russian economy peaked in 2013 and has been going down hill since then. The Russian society has already been hardened by these 9 years of "hard times" and not to forget the much harder times in the 1990s. Another reason is that Western companies stopped their sales in Russia while…

> The Russian economy peaked in 2013 and has been going down hill since then Do you have anything substantial to back this claim? Cuz to me (actually living in Russia) it seems like exactly the opposite - the economy had been slowly decomposing up until the financial crisis of 2014, when the exchange rates had shifted so that roubles became cheaper. Until then it was extremely hard to build a sustainable business in…

The US likes GDP because it lets us report growth based on all sorts of unproductive financial instruments like interest payments on medical debt.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#96

Post by simion314 »

scohesc wrote: post #63
IgorPartola wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because nukes. If Ukrainians push into Russia (which to be clear, they can’t for many other reasons aside from weapons), Russia would launch nukes and that could make the entirety of Europe uninhabitable for centuries.

I've tried to stay mostly ignorant about the war for my own health - what has been released or talked about that makes people think Putin will launch nukes and destroy a bunch of land and cause untold death and destruction to numerous countries not involved in the conflict? I'm not trying to be facetious or incidious with my question, feels like I need to worry more about paying bills and keeping my family fed but wi…

Putin diplomacy level is in the negative, he and his dogs always threaten the neighboring countries all the time.

So when targets inside Russia are hit like his precious bridge they always tell us that this means Russia is invaded and they have the right to use nuclear weapons in defense.

For us in Easter Europe the bigger concern is the nuclear plants, this bastards will sabotage them in some false flag operation to get revenge on their incompetence and inferiority.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#97

Post by jmull »

themgt wrote: post #81
djaychela wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have sources for those claims? I don't remember hearing either - my recollection is that there were warnings that sanctions would have some effect but take a long time to work, and the Russian economy would be supported by China and India, among others.

As a result of our unprecedented sanctions, the ruble was almost immediately reduced to rubble. The Russian economy is on track to be cut in half. It was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion — and soon, it will not even rank among the top 20. - President Biden, Mar 26, 2022 https://twitter.com/potus/status/1507842574865866763

I'm defending this idiotic tweet (sanctions have never been quick work), but it doesn't make the claims the previous poster was talking about.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#98

Post by terryf »

vlovich123 wrote: post #40
rich_sasha wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends to whom. To countries far away, but wary of, dunno, nukes going into the hands of terrorists, sure. To countries bordering Russia who are intimidated and threatened (or invaded!) on a continuous basis, this is a definite improvement.

I doubt that countries bordering Russia are keen to have failed chaotic states with economic problems on their borders. The refugee situation that will create is pretty intense.

I'm about 200km from the russian border right now. Having those a*holes go down would be definitely a cause for celebration.

The in-fighting that will occur when the current government collapses will weaken them further.

The Ukraine war has strengthened NATO and shown the (quite surprising!) unity of Europe to the point that people here just aren't afraid any more.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#99

Post by foverzar »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #26
keewee7 wrote: post #11

One reason that sanctions haven't had an apparent immediate effect is that the Russian economy was already in a slow downward spiral. The Russian economy peaked in 2013 and has been going down hill since then. The Russian society has already been hardened by these 9 years of "hard times" and not to forget the much harder times in the 1990s. Another reason is that Western companies stopped their sales in Russia while…

It would be so fun to be in IT in Russia right now. Software and film piracy is now completely legal because, if they aren’t selling it, it’s not theft. I could put pirated Windows on every workstation with no fear…

> It would be so fun to be in IT in Russia right now

Yep, that's me.

> Software and film piracy is now completely legal

No it isn't, sadly. The one immediately good thing I had hoped to happen out of all this mess, sadly didn't happen. What a disappointment, really.

Complying to some arbitrary "copyright" rules, enforced by enemy state and lobbied by corporations, that had practically bought "rights" to all the human culture they could get their hands on (especially if they are refusing to license!) is completely ridiculous and fucking stupid.

In the current political situation at least they could have legalised SciHub - they couldn't even do that! That's just weak.

Re: Russia’s apparent resilience is being kept up by policy tricks and cash

#100

Post by popilewiz »

qikInNdOutReply wrote: post #15
IgorPartola wrote: post #10

As a Ukrainian, good! This war should have a long cost to Russia. They are certainly causing long term damage to Ukraine by destroying Ukrainian culture where they can, using rape as a widespread war tactic, and relocating Ukrainian children to Russia “for their own good” (see any recent ISW report for details). Having said that, the real thing that appears to have happened in this war is that Putin is a KGB stooge,…

Question: Are there plans to get hostages in russia to get your citizens back? After all there are citys beyond the border?

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