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TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

cnbc.com

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#31

I remember reading that making chips requires a lot of water, something that Arizona is running out of, will this be a problem?

If I was conspiratorial, I’d say this serves as a excuse for building more pipelines for getting more water from other states.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The iPhone SoC was made by Samsung in Austin for many years, so this has already happened. At the time everyone assumed that Apple wanted to diversify away from Samsung for other reasons which were not necessarily financial.

I bet the Samsung SoC's were a lot cheaper though as less sophisticated. Samsung -> TSMC got them away from a competitor, possibly cheaper (US -> Taiwan) and onto better roadmap. This is quite different and possibly a further sign of Apple spending to diversify supply chains.

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Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#34

Well that seems significant. Article says the chips in the 2nd fabs will be better than the first. And will meet all domestic US demand. Not sure what all that includes. I wonder how domestic the full supply chain is. If the US is relying on China for rare earth metals or something.

The article is wrote for tech illiterate audience.

They will use EUV for the first factory (2024). And High-NA EUV (next gen from ASML) for the second factory in 2026.

4nm,3nm are just marketing terms, and means nothing, since they stopped naming nodes according to their actual size since 16nm.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#35

I'm interested in the financial aspect of this. Assuming US Fabs are more expensive than in Taiwan that then must mean lower margins or higher prices. I wonder if Apple for example has said that they are prepared to pay a premium to ensure diversity of supply?

Apple doesn't care that much about cost of chips. Their margins are wide enough that even a substantial increase in chip pricing won't significantly impact their profits.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#36
post #28
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s good news geopolitically I actually think the opposite. It will be good for global supply chains but not geopolitics, because it reduces the reliance on Taiwan thus opening it up for assimilation.

Even if it were bad for Taiwan, geopolitics is about more than Taiwan. But I’m not sure this is bad for Taiwan: today, China can wipe out TSMC overnight. With these fabs there will be Taiwanese revenue streams coming from mainland US, which streams can support Taiwan government and military. Walk me through why it’s bad for Taiwan to be more economically diversified?

Well for one the US won't be so inclined to defend TW so much. Sure, there will be posturing, maybe even a proxy war like in Ukraine, but generally speaking the US will not be sending troops anymore, now that the golden goose has nested on its shores.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#37

I remember reading that making chips requires a lot of water, something that Arizona is running out of, will this be a problem?

If I was conspiratorial, I’d say this serves as a excuse for building more pipelines for getting more water from other states.

What is the longest and (large enough) volume water piping system in the world? From my recollection its not long enough to significantly make inroads to another state.

edit: I think I might be wrong, looks like China has done significant waterworks across their country.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#38
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has no such fear about Taiwan. Taiwan has a fear that they will be invaded by China if they do not have industry that is too important to China to be interrupted by war.

Are you saying China is more likely to invade Taiwan if the destruction of TSMC’s Taiwanese fabs could be mitigated by buying the same products from TSMC’s US-based fabs?

I believe what they are saying that the US is less likely to risk war with China to protect Taiwan if they can get chips sources domestically.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#39

I'm interested in the financial aspect of this. Assuming US Fabs are more expensive than in Taiwan that then must mean lower margins or higher prices. I wonder if Apple for example has said that they are prepared to pay a premium to ensure diversity of supply?

The iPhone SoC was made by Samsung in Austin for many years, so this has already happened. At the time everyone assumed that Apple wanted to diversify away from Samsung for other reasons which were not necessarily financial.

> At the time everyone assumed that Apple wanted to diversify away from Samsung for other reasons which were not necessarily financial.

When Apple was dual sourcing chips from both Samsung and TSMC, the Samsung version of the A9 had a ~10% reduction in battery life compared to the TSMC version, although the performance was nearly identical otherwise.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/iphone-6s-a9-samsung-vs-ts...

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#40
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC has had a license to print money for a while now given how huge ASML’s backlog is.

Is ASML even going to be able to meet the demand created by all these fabs opening up across the US (and rest of the world)? The stories I've heard about what it takes to build a single machine would suggest to me that scaling up would be a huge feat and I could only imagine take years to accomplish. Then again, perhaps TSMC and their peers had predicted this kind of growth and already placed their orders long ago?

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