Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

cnbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 294 posts

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#21

Post by kibwen »

mlindner wrote: post #13
bmitc wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s good news geopolitically I actually think the opposite. It will be good for global supply chains but not geopolitics, because it reduces the reliance on Taiwan thus opening it up for assimilation.

I think it actually increases assimilation with the US instead. One of the things that improved US relations with Japan when there was fear that they would take over the US was when they started building a bunch of US-based manufacturing.

That's describing something different. In the 80s the US was worried that Japan would dominate the US economically. The dynamic here is that Taiwan is worried that China will dominate Taiwan militarily. The assimilation being referenced above is not between the US and Taiwan, but between the Taiwan and China.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#22

Post by jason-phillips »

klelatti wrote: post #20

I'm interested in the financial aspect of this. Assuming US Fabs are more expensive than in Taiwan that then must mean lower margins or higher prices. I wonder if Apple for example has said that they are prepared to pay a premium to ensure diversity of supply?

The iPhone SoC was made by Samsung in Austin for many years, so this has already happened. At the time everyone assumed that Apple wanted to diversify away from Samsung for other reasons which were not necessarily financial.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#23

Post by sidibe »

mlindner wrote: post #16
brookst wrote: post #2

It’s good news geopolitically, and the construction will produce a lot of jobs. But people should temper long-term job expectations. This huge of an investment in a tech where TSMC will face competition from fabs in lower-cost countries almost certainly means the company believes it can use extensive automation to avoid having labor costs sink their ability to compete on price. (Yes, there may be a window where they…

> This huge of an investment in a tech where TSMC will face competition from fabs in lower-cost countries almost certainly means the company believes it can use extensive automation to avoid having labor costs sink their ability to compete on price. What countries are you imagining that will suddenly become competitive in semiconductor manufacturing? As far as I know there are no up and coming companies of note. (Com…

Yup, this isn't making the cheapest t-shirts possible. The cost of labor is nothing compared to the revenues. For a fab you want a stable government and environment, and good tax/trade situation, and reliable, quality labor.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#24

Post by kube-system »

mlindner wrote: post #13
bmitc wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s good news geopolitically I actually think the opposite. It will be good for global supply chains but not geopolitics, because it reduces the reliance on Taiwan thus opening it up for assimilation.

I think it actually increases assimilation with the US instead. One of the things that improved US relations with Japan when there was fear that they would take over the US was when they started building a bunch of US-based manufacturing.

The US has no such fear about Taiwan. Taiwan has a fear that they will be invaded by China if they do not have industry that is too important to China to be interrupted by war.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#25

Post by klelatti »

jason-phillips wrote: post #22
klelatti wrote: post #20

I'm interested in the financial aspect of this. Assuming US Fabs are more expensive than in Taiwan that then must mean lower margins or higher prices. I wonder if Apple for example has said that they are prepared to pay a premium to ensure diversity of supply?

The iPhone SoC was made by Samsung in Austin for many years, so this has already happened. At the time everyone assumed that Apple wanted to diversify away from Samsung for other reasons which were not necessarily financial.

I bet the Samsung SoC's were a lot cheaper though as less sophisticated. Samsung -> TSMC got them away from a competitor, possibly cheaper (US -> Taiwan) and onto better roadmap.

This is quite different and possibly a further sign of Apple spending to diversify supply chains.

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#26

Post by chrisjc »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #18
warinukraine wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember when Warren Buffet invested into TSMC and someone said he must know something we don't?

TSMC has had a license to print money for a while now given how huge ASML’s backlog is.

Is ASML even going to be able to meet the demand created by all these fabs opening up across the US (and rest of the world)?

The stories I've heard about what it takes to build a single machine would suggest to me that scaling up would be a huge feat and I could only imagine take years to accomplish.

Then again, perhaps TSMC and their peers had predicted this kind of growth and already placed their orders long ago?

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#27

Post by criddell »

warinukraine wrote: post #14
FpUser wrote: post #12

I guess this is TSMCs getaway if things will get sour with China.

Remember when Warren Buffet invested into TSMC and someone said he must know something we don't?

I keep wondering if this is different than when Foxconn announced a $10b investment in Wisconsin but carried through less than 10% of that?

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#28

Post by brookst »

bmitc wrote: post #4
brookst wrote: post #2

It’s good news geopolitically, and the construction will produce a lot of jobs. But people should temper long-term job expectations. This huge of an investment in a tech where TSMC will face competition from fabs in lower-cost countries almost certainly means the company believes it can use extensive automation to avoid having labor costs sink their ability to compete on price. (Yes, there may be a window where they…

> It’s good news geopolitically I actually think the opposite. It will be good for global supply chains but not geopolitics, because it reduces the reliance on Taiwan thus opening it up for assimilation.

Even if it were bad for Taiwan, geopolitics is about more than Taiwan.

But I’m not sure this is bad for Taiwan: today, China can wipe out TSMC overnight. With these fabs there will be Taiwanese revenue streams coming from mainland US, which streams can support Taiwan government and military.

Walk me through why it’s bad for Taiwan to be more economically diversified?

Re: TSMC ups Arizona investment from $12B to $40B with second semi fab

#30

Post by brookst »

kube-system wrote: post #24
mlindner wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it actually increases assimilation with the US instead. One of the things that improved US relations with Japan when there was fear that they would take over the US was when they started building a bunch of US-based manufacturing.

The US has no such fear about Taiwan. Taiwan has a fear that they will be invaded by China if they do not have industry that is too important to China to be interrupted by war.

Are you saying China is more likely to invade Taiwan if the destruction of TSMC’s Taiwanese fabs could be mitigated by buying the same products from TSMC’s US-based fabs?
Post reply on HN