Remote work is gutting downtowns • Hacker News Board

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#81

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:48 PM UTC

merman wrote: post #55

Elidrake42 wrote: post #18

A bit off topic; I of course understand that I'm an odd situation and not representative of the broader trend at play here... But moving into remote work inspired my partner and I to move into Manhattan from the sprawling car driven nightmare that was Phoenix. Tiny little studio, but we've never been particularly materialistic, a murphy bed massively opens up the space, and no office to go into means once the day is…

Sorry your Phoenix experience was so bad for you. It's great out here though. Don't know why the top comment is dumping on Phx as if it doesn't have a great road system. Our grocery options will improve as soon as the german discount chains set Frys is not more expensive than TJs [0] When you drive east from AZ, you drive past the cheapest gas in the US[1] [0] https://www.frysfood.com/savings/weeklyad/ [1] https://ga…

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Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#82

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:50 PM UTC

timinou wrote: post #5

Title slightly misleading... The article makes the point that downtowns are turning from office to social centres and the $453B figure is more of an investment in repurposing offices and rethinking urban spaces for that purpose. I welcome these changes... Yes we'll need to rethink our urbanism, but if anything this switch feels like a coming back of what our urban centers are supposed to provide us. Imagine parking s…

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Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#83

Post by kodyo » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:52 PM UTC

TimPC wrote: post #73

It’s annoying that articles repeatedly wrongly claim that reduced real estate prices lead to reduced real estate taxes. The method of computation of real estate taxes generates a mil rate which is the percentage rate that needs to be charged to generate the current budget’s revenue. This rate is computed each assessment after the property values are adjusted. The government gets the same total amount of money if prop…

That's not true, at least not everywhere. My property taxes always go up when my property values are adjusted upwards.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#84

Post by mikeryan » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:53 PM UTC

timinou wrote: post #5

Title slightly misleading... The article makes the point that downtowns are turning from office to social centres and the $453B figure is more of an investment in repurposing offices and rethinking urban spaces for that purpose. I welcome these changes... Yes we'll need to rethink our urbanism, but if anything this switch feels like a coming back of what our urban centers are supposed to provide us. Imagine parking s…

Not sure what you read there but the roughly $500B figure is a real loss in the commercial real-estate sector as leases some off the books. It’s a slow burn.

There’s an additional expense to try to repurpose these building as residential but it’s a massive one that won’t come easily. You can’t just turn modern office buildings into residential building by reworking the interior. Most wouldn’t meet residential codes (like bedrooms needing windows, emergency egress, additional plumbing and waste requirements, parking etc)

Commercial real estate is going to take a massive hit the next 3-4 years and that $435B number is a real estimate in the decline in commercial real-estate value. It comes from this study.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30526/w305...

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#85

Post by merman » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:53 PM UTC

bluejekyll wrote: post #77

merman wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry your Phoenix experience was so bad for you. It's great out here though. Don't know why the top comment is dumping on Phx as if it doesn't have a great road system. Our grocery options will improve as soon as the german discount chains set Frys is not more expensive than TJs [0] When you drive east from AZ, you drive past the cheapest gas in the US[1] [0] https://www.frysfood.com/savings/weeklyad/ [1] https://ga…

I think you’re missing the point of the comment. They wanted to live in a more walkable, bikeable, human centered environment that doesn’t require cars to get around. You’re making the statement that Phoenix is a great place, and a great place to drive, if you don’t mind driving for your errands, etc. They clearly don’t enjoy needing to drive everywhere, and NYC is a great place to be if you don’t want to have a car…

>Though really I think this is an indictment of the current state of Phoenix more than it is a reason to praise Manhattan

They also claim that many other states compare favorably to Phoenix, middle-America states. Suburbia, drive-centric states, like almost all of US.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#86

Post by tuyiown » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:54 PM UTC

highwaylights wrote: post #19

wildrhythms wrote: post #3

These seeds were sowed when cities cashed in on commercial real estate, pushing residential zoning further and further out of the city. Wake up call: nobody wants to spend longer than they have to on an unpaid, unpredictable commute into the city anymore. So while these downtown businesses are getting 1/3 of the foot traffic that they used to, all the supermarkets and shops a few miles down the road are raking it in.

I used to get the bus to work about 10 years ago because parking in the city became so expensive (I stopped long before Covid hit). The thing I don't miss is that I got sick every single Winter. All it takes is one inconsiderate person to not cover their mouth and everyone is getting ill. And it happened all the time . I had a commute time that ranged between one and two hours over that stretch as I'd lived in a coup…

> The thing I don't miss is that I got sick every single Winter. All it takes is one inconsiderate person to not cover their mouth and everyone is getting ill. And it happened all the time.

Give it a few years without exposure, and you will have very hard time if you have to get exposed again. I did 2 years for remote work with a single day with long exposure each week, after a few years with low exposure.

I then had a kid, it took at least 3 full years once it got to day care for my immunity to get trained back to normal. Middly sick at least 4 months total per year, strong fever and/or weakness 4-5 times per year.

I'm all for limited exposure to dangerous infections, but for the sake of everyone, we have to keep our immunity active to stay healthy, and this happens by getting sick times to times.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#87

Post by Yorch » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:56 PM UTC

I hate cities so much that I'd rather dedicate myself to taking care of a flock of sheep than set foot in a damn office in a city again.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#88

Post by brookst » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:57 PM UTC

awesomegoat_com wrote: post #72

brookst wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Walk me through that thinking? Downtown residents walk and use transit. Places with broader distribution of people typically rely on roads because transit isn’t economically efficient. My intuition is that higher population densities are more environmentally efficient because more people can be served by any resource. Are you thinking otherwise?

I guess you might be right. It is just me noticing my own behavior patterns and extending it to the greater populace which is not correct. I had a pleasure to live in village, small city and big city. I feel I use much more resources in bigger city. Distance to the mall is similar, but all the free-time activities in the city consume energy. While in the village I mostly just walked the forest and worked on the garde…

Water is a good example of a resource that can be more environmentally friendly in less dense areas, though that’s not true everywhere. Plenty of suburbs in the US pipe in water from far away.

Anyways, kudos for recognizing that your behavior may not be typical. For me, the main attraction of rural living would be the ability to have a hobby machine shop, multiple cars (sorry, am enthusiast). And I’d probably drive in to the city in the absence of transit.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#89

Post by rch » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 2:58 PM UTC

timinou wrote: post #5

Title slightly misleading... The article makes the point that downtowns are turning from office to social centres and the $453B figure is more of an investment in repurposing offices and rethinking urban spaces for that purpose. I welcome these changes... Yes we'll need to rethink our urbanism, but if anything this switch feels like a coming back of what our urban centers are supposed to provide us. Imagine parking s…

Even as higher income people become more geographically distributed, they'll naturally support locavore options, cultural event spaces, an so on, in smaller town centers.

I do wish there were more resources to help places experiencing rapid influx manage growth more intelligently. Towns shouldn't have to endure a big box store phase before investing in livable forms.

Re: Remote work is gutting downtowns

#90

Post by marcyb5st » Tue, Dec 06, 2022, 3:00 PM UTC

wildrhythms wrote: post #3

These seeds were sowed when cities cashed in on commercial real estate, pushing residential zoning further and further out of the city. Wake up call: nobody wants to spend longer than they have to on an unpaid, unpredictable commute into the city anymore. So while these downtown businesses are getting 1/3 of the foot traffic that they used to, all the supermarkets and shops a few miles down the road are raking it in.

Europe arguably has better public transportation and shorter commutes. I am still seeing this happening (don't have any data to back my claim, just my experience). If I have to guess here is more about the housing cost being the issue. Buying is prohibitive given the average income and most new units are only for rent. In the last 6 years I spent more than 140k CHF in rent (close to Zurich).

Once remote working has started we said screw that and moved further away from downtown. Now we own a nice apartment with a garden (unthinkable before) and go the city only when required.