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No one wants to have kids anymore

torturechambersmalltalk.substack.com

81–90 of 457 posts

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#81
I am so surprised that, in a site visited by technical people, so many don't get that the rate of change is decreasing...

Didn't any of you study Calculus? Didn't you get the idea of "negative second derivative"?

Yes, population is still growing in poor 3rd world countries. But even there it does at a rate far bellow what was 40 years ago.

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#82
If the state wants babies let it act so as to make them easier to have. Medical care, parental leave, inexpensive day care even per child funding. Some have done this but it’s in disagreement with the conservative approach to governing. People get what they vote for.

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#83

The only solution is to ban condoms. Will solve so many problems. Btw this article neglects to mention a very important feedback loop: less babies equals less economic growth, which equals less babies because it’s too expensive, which in turn leads to less economic growth and so on. Collapsing birth rates are a serious problem! You won’t notice until the country becomes a depopulated wasteland and then it will be too…

Great talk about that here https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi_nFz1CJSI

Zeihan is great.

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#84

> But deep down I get it. Babies are a huge opportunity cost. Financially speaking, they are like winning the lottery but backwards. You can't even think of having one without cancelling your subscription to a good night's sleep. And if you take into account inflation, economic recession, and the rest of the news cycle's highlight reel, even a one-child family can seem to have one too many mouths to fish Lego pieces…

It’s your decision, but not having children because of your comfort is like saying you won’t ride an amazing wave as a surfer because it’s hard and dangerous. Yep, it is. But when you ride that wave it will be the most amazing experience of your life. Even if it is hard. it’s your choice, but you’re definitely missing out on something special. Something we were genetically created to do (which makes it even better th…

> it’s your choice, but you’re definitely missing out on something special.

I totally forgot to mention the patronizing attitude that so many people come to this conversation with. Thank for you for heads up.

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#86
When we reach 10bn people, we will already have almost no children. This is what most people don’t get.

The slowdown is already here. Birth rates are still collapsing. But people worldwide are living longer so the actual number of people is still increasing.

By the time you get to 10bn in 50 years, it means you will have the majority of that pretty old. It will mean a completely unsustainable world demographic. And it will probably mean a massive collapse in population to 2-3bn within a few generations.

No idea what that will bring, but it will be a very different society to now.

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#87
Elizabeth Warren's book The Two-Income Trap argued that dual income couples priced out single income families from the best locations.

It makes sense that DINKs and childless single people are simply reacting to the same economic incentives and now pricing out dual income families.

I think high-rents is a major driver of this decision. The USDA puts the cost of your first kid at $14.4k annually edited. That is primarily due to housing.

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#88
post #3

As well written and funny as the article is it still finds itself in a tunnel vision scenario because if the population is rising continuously and no one wants to have kids anymore then where are all these extra kids coming from?

There aren't just extra kids, there's extra old people.

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#89
post #46

> at this pace, the world's population is going to flatline at around 10 billion in 50 years Is that what you're panicking about? This means that for the next 50 years, we'll continue growing. Lack of offspring of current generations is clearly not the problem here. I still remember how in the 1980s, people were panicking that the world population kept growing, and sooner or later we were going to hit 10 billion. And…

> Is that what you're panicking about? This means that for the next 50 years, we'll continue growing. Lack of offspring of current generations is clearly not the problem here.

It think it can be and it might already be. The problem is the distribution of people in age groups. If you have a lot of old people and few young people, that creates pressure on the economy.

Sustainable would not just be about the number of people, but also the number of people in each age group.

Re: No one wants to have kids anymore

#90

The only solution is to ban condoms. Will solve so many problems. Btw this article neglects to mention a very important feedback loop: less babies equals less economic growth, which equals less babies because it’s too expensive, which in turn leads to less economic growth and so on. Collapsing birth rates are a serious problem! You won’t notice until the country becomes a depopulated wasteland and then it will be too…

> The only solution is to ban condoms. Will solve so many problems. It might solve the "problem" that the article discusses. But it will create many many more worse problems.

Worse problems than a dying population? I don’t think so. If the population keeps getting older and smaller by definition it is dying. And not dying is the first imperative of life.
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