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TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

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Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#311

Post by tnel77 »

NeverFade wrote: post #304
CoolGuySteve wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the time the fab comes online in 2024 (which seems optimistic), 4nm should be a half-step generation or so behind. TSMC also has a dozen or so fabs in Asia, so it's not clear how the single plant in Arizona is going to meet capacity requirements or how often that plant will be retrofitted with newer equipment. This plant and the federal subsidies backing it seem more like a way for defense contractors to domestica…

TSMC expects to begin mass production of 3nm chips in its Taiwan fabs by 2023 Q4: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546779-tsmc-no-3nm-soon This isn't my field, but I'm not sure what's the excitement about an Arizona plant that will optimistically start production a year later with an older process.

Indeed. There are zero domestic use cases for that ancient 4nm tech…

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#312

Post by metalliqaz »

NeverFade wrote: post #304
CoolGuySteve wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the time the fab comes online in 2024 (which seems optimistic), 4nm should be a half-step generation or so behind. TSMC also has a dozen or so fabs in Asia, so it's not clear how the single plant in Arizona is going to meet capacity requirements or how often that plant will be retrofitted with newer equipment. This plant and the federal subsidies backing it seem more like a way for defense contractors to domestica…

TSMC expects to begin mass production of 3nm chips in its Taiwan fabs by 2023 Q4: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546779-tsmc-no-3nm-soon This isn't my field, but I'm not sure what's the excitement about an Arizona plant that will optimistically start production a year later with an older process.

It's a start. Certainly miles beyond where US domestic fabrication stands today.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#313

Post by filoleg »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #298
jackpeterfletch wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats interesting. My initial thoughts on this came the from the opposite side in terms of Taiwans security. One of the major bounties for invading Taiwan would be in the acquisition and control of their chip manufacturing. Which - as you mention, the entire tech world is dependant on. By moving some of that capability offshore, that incentive is gone. Though I can see it from both sides.

> By moving some of that capability offshore, that incentive is gone. China's main motivation isn't about controlling TSMC, that's just a useful side-objective if it comes to pass. Their main motivations are: 1) break the first island chain barrier and gain a naval base with unhindered access to the Pacific, and 2) shut down a high-functioning Chinese democracy that is a constant reminder to the people of mainland Ch…

Perhaps it isn't about controlling TSMC, but control of TSMC would be a very strong leverage over the west.

Not that it is the only or even the most powerful leverage China has over the west, but it is still a massive one, and it has quite a lot of second-order effects.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#314

Post by t-3 »

dirtyid wrote: post #309
FBISurveillance wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read that TSMC fabs are filled with explosives to set off if China invades so they wouldn't get their hands on tech and equipment. I'm pretty certain that's true, given how important TSMC tech is.

That meme makes zero sense considering TW don't want to be a third world economy dependant on exporting fruit even if PRC successfully invades. There's reason TW media was telling US think tanks to leave TSMC alone when US Army War College analysis suggested US should consider bombing TSMC... or exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) in event of war. As long as fabs and downstream supply chain supplies s…

> exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less)

Why would you expect the US military to care about children or try to evacuate them?

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#315

Post by chaosbolt »

menshiki wrote: post #235

Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…

Chip manufacturing is both the reason everyone is protecting them and also why China wants them so bad.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#316

Post by andy_ppp »

chaosbolt wrote: post #315
menshiki wrote: post #235

Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…

Chip manufacturing is both the reason everyone is protecting them and also why China wants them so bad.

No the reason they want to invade is to project power into the wider pacific, nationalism, imperialism and the people and human capital not just limited to semi conductors. The factories will be destroyed in any invasion, the US will guarantee it, I promise.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#317

Post by dirtyid »

sofixa wrote: post #149
atmosx wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has less "skin in the game" now that the TSMC core tech can be found on US soil - that's what the parent and me are referring to. Taiwan is not able to defend itself without US aid. ps. I'm not in the valley and it's not about "hawkish" views, it is pure power-play.

> Taiwan is not able to defend itself without US aid. If you look at a topographic map of Taiwan, it's not so obvious. Rough terrain coupled with the fact that an amphibious assault is needed to even get to Taiwan, and then the troops there need to be resupplied by sea and air (both of which require infrastructure which can be sabotaged), make Taiwan a very good defensive position. Of course it couldn't last forever…

>If you look at a topographic map of Taiwan, it's not so obvious

Assessments of TW's defensibility gets dimmer and dimmer with increasingly modern PLA capabilities. If you actually look at topo map of Taiwan:

https://i.imgur.com/Ds6hz2e.png

Island a series of plains with no depth fragmented by rivers from rain + high mountains. Essentially a series of sequential turkey shooting galleries from air. PRC will be the ones blowing up bridges and infra to cut island into piece meal bastions to further restrict operation space of TW. The mountains themselves are incredibly tall, which is a nightmare for defenders limited to light arms against attackers who'll be droning them with relative impunity. The foliage helps, but SAR / sensors tech filling that gap fast. Before/if PLA even bother with landing, they're going to shape conditions to be as uncontested as possible. Which likely means embarassing one sided bloodbath as PLA drone operators in air conditioned mainland offices glassing 100,000s of relatively soft ROCA defenders in plains with no rear except rough mountains rougher than what Vietcon / Taliban operated from. Meanwhile, rest of island - the home front - will have critical infra distrupted, after calories and clean water runs out, they'll be inviting PLA to resupply island vias sea and air. Capabilities of attacker determine whether geography is blessing or curse to defenders. For TW, it's increasingly curse.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#318

Post by HDThoreaun »

totalZero wrote: post #43
etaioinshrdlu wrote: post #12

Does the CHIPS act have anything to do with making this happen? It's funny to think that the supply chain gurus at Apple & NVIDIA may be doing the work of geopolitics in the service of just defending their bottom line from disruption.

Apple spent something like a half-trillion on share buybacks. They could have averted this crisis a decade ago by thinking strategically. They didn't. Why give them credit where little or no credit is due?

Buybacks are not stopping apple from building a fab. They still have more than enough money, they're just not interested.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#319

Post by filoleg »

abakker wrote: post #262
jackpeterfletch wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats interesting. My initial thoughts on this came the from the opposite side in terms of Taiwans security. One of the major bounties for invading Taiwan would be in the acquisition and control of their chip manufacturing. Which - as you mention, the entire tech world is dependant on. By moving some of that capability offshore, that incentive is gone. Though I can see it from both sides.

Without the staff from TSMC, the Chinese Government probably can't run those facilities. I suspect there isn't much probability that china could mobilize and take those facilities as-is with no sabotage. The US has taken steps recently to reduce china's ability to make chips domestically. See - https://www.seattletimes.com/business/chip-gear-maker-asml-a...

The Chinese government doesn't run those facilities now, and I agree that they won't be able to do so in the event of a Taiwan invasion either.

That's not the point though. Who runs those facilities now? TSMC aka Taiwan aka a western ally. Who stands to lose the most from TSMC facilities being burned to the ground? Taiwan (obviously) and the west.

As a layman with no background in international relations, to me it seems like TSMC is simply an extra bargaining chip for the Chinese government. Which is why I am all about the idea of building more TSMC facilities in places that are less susceptible to being invaded. And yes, the Arizona plant is just a drop in the bucket compared to their facilities in Taiwan, but you gotta start somewhere, and something is better than nothing in this case imo.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#320

Post by dirtyid »

t-3 wrote: post #314
dirtyid wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That meme makes zero sense considering TW don't want to be a third world economy dependant on exporting fruit even if PRC successfully invades. There's reason TW media was telling US think tanks to leave TSMC alone when US Army War College analysis suggested US should consider bombing TSMC... or exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) in event of war. As long as fabs and downstream supply chain supplies s…

> exfiltrate TSMC engineers (before children no less) Why would you expect the US military to care about children or try to evacuate them?

US military doesn't care. But the TWnese care, which US thinktankers/media, and I'm guessing US based commenters like you seem to forget. Hence the disconnect on why people seriously contemplate these TW will blow up TSMC memes. And why TW media reminding US, that if they're going to evacuate anyone off the island first, it's not going to be their semi engineers, it's going to be women and children. Or that more generally, they're not interested in blowing up their lively hood to stick it to the PRC. Like how in UKR war, it's RU whose blowing up UKR infra and industry when they decided it was better to scorch earth long term.
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