Live data from Hacker News

TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

techmonitor.ai

281–290 of 543 posts

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#281

Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…

It is categorically NOT a huge win for the stock. This is all happening because of US subsidies. The US has more expensive workers who are overall worse at the job and don't have the expertise to be compete with the people in Taiwan. The subsidies only make this a viable option for political reasons. The decision to create a fab in Arizona is strictly speaking unprofitable and essentially a economically irrational mo…

Good thing a stock price is about the future growth of a company. Hell, many public companies are valued at billions but still take a yearly loss. They are "subsidizing" their own growth in a sense.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is categorically NOT a huge win for the stock. This is all happening because of US subsidies. The US has more expensive workers who are overall worse at the job and don't have the expertise to be compete with the people in Taiwan. The subsidies only make this a viable option for political reasons. The decision to create a fab in Arizona is strictly speaking unprofitable and essentially a economically irrational mo…

The “various reasons we all know about” I’m guessing are: theft of intellectual property, theft of the technology and skills. I wonder if Arizona US will be an easier espionage point than Taiwan for China to exfiltrate the tech.

Espionage is a minor reason. Trivial really.

The main reason is the looming threat of invasion of Taiwan from China. Such an action is catastrophic for Taiwan and the US. I thought this was obvious. Guess not.

The US is an easier espionage point for the US to steal technology from Taiwan. Most likely it will happen. But simple espionage isn't enough for this technology to fully transfer. The expertise and knowhow is just too challenging.

Do not let your patriotism blind you from the moral grayness that operates within the US as well.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is categorically NOT a huge win for the stock. This is all happening because of US subsidies. The US has more expensive workers who are overall worse at the job and don't have the expertise to be compete with the people in Taiwan. The subsidies only make this a viable option for political reasons. The decision to create a fab in Arizona is strictly speaking unprofitable and essentially a economically irrational mo…

The “various reasons we all know about” I’m guessing are: theft of intellectual property, theft of the technology and skills. I wonder if Arizona US will be an easier espionage point than Taiwan for China to exfiltrate the tech.

>> I wonder if Arizona US will be an easier espionage point than Taiwan for China to exfiltrate the tech.

For a US company, probably. They seem to pick up Chinese Ph.D.s with ease.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is categorically NOT a huge win for the stock. This is all happening because of US subsidies. The US has more expensive workers who are overall worse at the job and don't have the expertise to be compete with the people in Taiwan. The subsidies only make this a viable option for political reasons. The decision to create a fab in Arizona is strictly speaking unprofitable and essentially a economically irrational mo…

Good thing a stock price is about the future growth of a company. Hell, many public companies are valued at billions but still take a yearly loss. They are "subsidizing" their own growth in a sense.

Stock price encompasses many things. Overall outlook is good. However the Arizona plant is not a good move for the company.

Your post looks like a rationalization of your own purchasing decisions. If this is a correct observation I would self reflect on your own biases.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your build quality comparison is off, a cheap $500 laptop should be compared to prior years Macbook Air M1 which is $300 more, not $2000 more. A $800 macbook has far better build quality than any $500 Windows laptop, probably better than most $800 laptops. Its Windows that's the issue for me. Having too many bad experiences and strong bias against Microsoft, I choose Apple because its not MS and it does work vs. tink…

>A $800 macbook has far better build quality than any $500 Windows laptop Took a peak at the apple store, there is no $800 Macbook for sale. So we're comparing, an older (used?) higher-end Macbook to a budget Windows laptop? Why not compare an older higher-end Windows laptop to an older Macbook? Why not compare a new $500 budget Windows laptop to a $500 used Macbook? >Its Windows that's the issue for me. Having too m…

> Took a peak at the apple store, there is no $800 Macbook for sale

$849

https://www.apple.com/shop/refurbished/mac/macbook-air

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#286

Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…

It is categorically NOT a huge win for the stock. This is all happening because of US subsidies. The US has more expensive workers who are overall worse at the job and don't have the expertise to be compete with the people in Taiwan. The subsidies only make this a viable option for political reasons. The decision to create a fab in Arizona is strictly speaking unprofitable and essentially a economically irrational mo…

I see this as a bargaining chip between US and China. Both sides "win".

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “various reasons we all know about” I’m guessing are: theft of intellectual property, theft of the technology and skills. I wonder if Arizona US will be an easier espionage point than Taiwan for China to exfiltrate the tech.

Espionage is a minor reason. Trivial really. The main reason is the looming threat of invasion of Taiwan from China. Such an action is catastrophic for Taiwan and the US. I thought this was obvious. Guess not. The US is an easier espionage point for the US to steal technology from Taiwan. Most likely it will happen. But simple espionage isn't enough for this technology to fully transfer. The expertise and knowhow is…

Does TSMC "own" the technology? Because their fabs are wholly dependent on ASML, a Dutch company. And they're using that to produce tech that's designed in the west as well.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#288

Great news for the US. Great news for Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. Not so good news for Taiwan. The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. Moving the fabs and talent further away from the island will not benefit the people of Taiwan at all. TSMC with its global influence has been a huge factor for guaranteeing safety of the island and peace in…

By the time the fab comes online in 2024 (which seems optimistic), 4nm should be a half-step generation or so behind.

TSMC also has a dozen or so fabs in Asia, so it's not clear how the single plant in Arizona is going to meet capacity requirements or how often that plant will be retrofitted with newer equipment.

This plant and the federal subsidies backing it seem more like a way for defense contractors to domestically source relatively recent fab processes over the next couple decades rather than something intended solely for consumer products.

The fact that consumer facing companies are interested in using the fab when it comes online doesn't necessarily mean they'll still be using it 10 years from now unless TSMC keeps it up to date.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The fact that the whole tech world is dependent on chips produced in Hsinchu is a huge advantage for the safety of Taiwan. But if they're entirely dependent on the US for defense in case of PRC invasion, is that healthy for the country?

what are the alternatives?

TSMC, a company whose expertise lies in precision machining and assembly with the handling of dangerous chemicals, could make The Bomb.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thats interesting. My initial thoughts on this came the from the opposite side in terms of Taiwans security. One of the major bounties for invading Taiwan would be in the acquisition and control of their chip manufacturing. Which - as you mention, the entire tech world is dependant on. By moving some of that capability offshore, that incentive is gone. Though I can see it from both sides.

Without the staff from TSMC, the Chinese Government probably can't run those facilities. I suspect there isn't much probability that china could mobilize and take those facilities as-is with no sabotage. The US has taken steps recently to reduce china's ability to make chips domestically. See - https://www.seattletimes.com/business/chip-gear-maker-asml-a...

I've read that TSMC fabs are filled with explosives to set off if China invades so they wouldn't get their hands on tech and equipment. I'm pretty certain that's true, given how important TSMC tech is.
Post reply on HN