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CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

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Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#221

Post by avereveard »

LanceH wrote: post #111
ghaff wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There is no real negotiation between players, other than an implicit, passing agreement when you don't provoke someone by attacking them. It depends how you play. I've seen people make treaties for all sorts of things for various durations, e.g. don't attack from Country X into Country Y and I won't attack across that border either.

Backstabbing in Risk or Catan is generally pretty obvious, though. It's more like, "Sorry, I need Australia." It's generally clear from the state of the game that it is headed there. In Diplomacy, it's a matter of choosing which of your friends to backstab. In a three way dynamic, it's basically two friends deciding that if the three of you crash in the mountains, they are eating you first.

Depends. I had many great risk games where trough game actions I made people believe I had a different objective to what I had, only to pivot at 3/4 of the game and win because my goals where undefended. It requires a bit of luck with cards and a well executed strategic tempo to play the combinations when the other sides are weak and cannot immediately do a combination back, but still.

Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#222

Post by gcanyon »

SonOfLilit wrote: post #202
gcanyon wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's an interesting question of "how much do the literal best humans suck at this?" For example, in chess Magnus Carlsen might be able to beat Stockfish given a handicap of just a pawn or two. An even better computer player than Stockfish might give up three or more pawns, but even a perfect player would likely lose to Carlsen if giving up a rook. -- I'm making this up, I don't think anyone knows the real values,…

We happened to talk about this at the Go club this evening. The strong chess players more or less agreed with you about the chess predictions, and the dan level Go players say AIs today can give the best pros definitely a 3 stone handicap (tried and tested), probably 4 or more, and perfect play is a few stones more (unclear how many, but probably not many, so not 9 stones altogether)

Thanks -- what Go club?

I figured 9 was too much, but I had no idea what number less than 9 to pick, so I stuck with what I thought was a near-certain upper limit.

I once played with 9 stones against a dan level player. It was close...until it wasn't :-)

Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#224

Post by gcanyon »

SteveDR wrote: post #131
gcanyon wrote: post #87

It seems like with this, Meta is doubling down on the Facebook platform's use as a dark influencer in politics. It's bad for humanity to enable advanced profiling and general targeting of demographics, but it's a whole other level if the communication itself can be targeted at the individual level. We're headed for a reality where I don't know if my friends' friends are real or not, and they each entice me with argum…

Do you think people are incapable of sticking to their beliefs when they’re faced with counterarguments? Isn’t that kind of a pre-requisite for believing in democratic representation?

> Do you think people are incapable of sticking to their beliefs when they’re faced with counterarguments?

Heh, there are two ways to take your point. So:

I hope most people are capable of discerning poor/invalid counterarguments and holding to their beliefs.

I hope most people are capable of being persuaded by valid counterarguments and changing their minds.

My point was that on the margins there are people who make the right choice for the wrong reasons: they are persuaded to a valid position by sub-standard arguments, or hold their valid position despite generally compelling arguments. And technology like this will (eventually) change that equation. Whoever the AI serves, their position, right or wrong, will be overweight in the public opinion because everyone gets exposed to the custom-made, specific-to-their-mental-susceptibilities arguments from sources they trust, because on other issues those sources agree with them. There are none so imprisoned as those who cannot see the cage. (not sure who said that first, can't be original with me)

Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#225

Post by gcanyon »

fardo wrote: post #177
gcanyon wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world champion seems to say that the best Diplomacy involves honesty and cooperation. Is he eliding that point toward the end where you use that honesty and cooperation to flip and really screw someone? Or is there more to Diplomacy than just "convince people you're cooperating until the very best time to betray them"?

Anecdotally from prior play, most diplomacy wins have two broad forms: 1. A second place player has fallen behind in a low or no hard betrayal alliance and is no longer capable of a meaningful backstab, and has decided they don’t plan to backstab their partner because through their ongoing cooperation they’re the second biggest player and you’ve had a good game together. They work to cement your win, because picking…

> I’m just consistently benefiting a little more from our mutual arrangement than you are

Sounds like Go.

Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#226

Post by mycall »

altruios wrote: post #117
californiadreem wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid we're looking in the wrong places. See: http://txti.es/egregores

Comments like this make me excited about the book I'm currently writing (hopefully the nail on the head at the tip of the zeitgeist), egregores and tulpas are primary concepts/characters.

Would you consider money as a form of egregores? Money seems to have a live of its own full of money-live support systems, ie. buyers and sellers.

Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#227

Post by sib »

doctorhandshake wrote: post #42
kneebonian wrote: post #5

For those hearing of this game for the first time and think it sounds fun. Be warned, it is considered to be a game that will end friendships that have lasted for years, and monopoly is considered to be a game that causes less bad feelings. An AI may be able to speak like a person but will never be able to hang onto that long burning simmering hatred from when Brad didn't support my army and instead flipped on me by…

In high school our math department had a long-running match in the teacher’s lounge with one move per day. Many times I remember my calculus teacher coming into class after the lunchtime move SEETHING.

We did this in grad school and even played a one-more-per-week game. Fun, but man did we spend a lot of time negotiating...

Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#228

Post by mycall »

EGreg wrote: post #166
dqpb wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPT-4 botswarm vs 8 billion idiots.

Pretty much. Able to write vastly more content, that on first blush makes more sense, and is able to support any arbitrary thesis. Eagle Eye was a meh movie but the concept that people's own friends could be made to ostracize them and coerce them to do things, is a major concept in that movie. You don't need violence to make it happen. You just need a swarm of AI bots to coordinate to reputationally outcompete others…

> the concept that people's own friends could be made to ostracize them and coerce them to do things, is a major concept in that movie

Can you accurately pigeonhole that thought onto one of these? I'm curious how unique a storyline it is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Thirty-Six_Dramatic_Situat...

Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#229

Post by CallMeJim »

mattnewton wrote: post #109
bee_rider wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard this about various games (Risk and Settlers of Catan mostly). I don’t get it. The point of these games is to be a bastard. If everyone goes into it with the understanding that there will be double crosses, how could there be hurt feelings? Monopoly is worse; it is just boring, I would dump my friends if they suggested monopoly not because I was hurt by their ruthless gameplay but for their terminally tas…

Diplomacy is quite a bit different because you 100% win by being the nicest asshole. Past a small mechanical threshold, there really is no way to make it up in strategy or luck, it is only the interpersonal relationships and convincing that wins games. That, coupled with the fact that the game takes a long time and encourages a lot of communication, means the recipe to get invested and blur the boundary between game…

What!? Santa Clause isn't real?

Re: CICERO: An AI agent that negotiates, persuades, and cooperates with people

#230

Post by cwillu »

yamtaddle wrote: post #128
cwillu wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think some (not all) of that factor is that, being a 3+ player game, it makes explicit some friendship group dynamics that were previously implicit, and potentially not known to all the involved parties.

Ugh, people bringing in outside-the-game relationships to the game itself will ruin Diplomacy. "Tom and Jim never betray each other, and if one is in a position to sacrifice themselves to give the other the win, they always will" is how you get a group to never ever let Diplomacy hit the table after the first couple times. Plus a bunch of other games. Folks who play like that are game-group poison. Hell, they can eve…

I was going more for the “Bob is going to blargh, he always blarghs when he gets flustered like when he blarghed at the thinger last year” sort of dynamic that people don't necessarily otherwise talk about. Nobody becomes a completely blank slate when they sit down, and some tendencies are something you might take advantage of in a game, where you would compensate and allow for it in real life. And those tendencies might be something the other party is sensitive about, but because it never came up otherwise…
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