41–50 of 90 posts
I believe these companies have 30% more workforce than needed, if they wanted to drive earnings they could. Big Tech being a value... if not already, definitely getting close. I see this as a "get lean" opportunity.
It does provide a lot of buffer against recessionary times
I think so. I've started buying shares every month in Cloudflare and Shopify - use their products and think they have fantastic momentum and great teams working on industry-defining tech. Disclaimer - I don't work/have never worked at either
I think so. I've started buying shares every month in Cloudflare and Shopify - use their products and think they have fantastic momentum and great teams working on industry-defining tech. Disclaimer - I don't work/have never worked at either
This is the way to do it, IMO. - Do a proper valuation of the company - If the price is right, start Dollar Cost Averaging into a position during a downturn No one can perfectly time the market. However, we certainly can approximate the proper value of solid companies, and we generally can tell when sentiments and market conditions are biasing low. (Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. Do your own research, etc.…
Especially for something like CloudFlare. I'm a customer, I understand their product and what they're offering, I like their products, I think it works pretty well, I see them having a lots of sites on their CDN, I think they're providing value.
I don't have the faintest idea what their suites of products are worth to the average website owner, and how many of those average users they have, or how much it would be worth to large enterprises etc. And even if I did, I wouldn't have any idea of what that should translate to in share prices.
So in the end all I can reasonably do is very basic stuff like looking at revenue vs share price, and maybe at how competitors are valued. Are you going to have any success with that kind of analysis that's barely scratching the surface?
They have a term for this kind of article on Wall Street: Trying to catch a falling knife " stocks have been beaten up. It's time to buy now!" Like clockwork, you can count on those stories appearing after a crash.
I missed the dotcom crash because I didn't want to invest at all, but caught all of the 2008-2009 crash and went long on the bottom in March 2009, but was mostly average after the crash. I caught the entire pandemic drop in March 2020 and also got long at the bottom, but again was only average for the last 2 years. I then went extremely short November 2021 and have been short ever since, and have doubled my trading account. I'm still very short, but by rolling over my options and extending the strike price, I've pocketed most of my gains so if the market rips higher from here I'll only lose about 10% of my gains, but I'm also long META and other stocks, so I'll participate on the long side as well.
They have a term for this kind of article on Wall Street: Trying to catch a falling knife " stocks have been beaten up. It's time to buy now!" Like clockwork, you can count on those stories appearing after a crash.
It is true that market timing is always dubious. But that also means that there's never a wrong time to invest in the market as a whole. Individual stocks when crashing are dangerous if you can't outsmart the reason they are crashing, but in aggregate stocks will go up by a modest amount on decade long scales. I felt weird about that advice a few months ago, when the market seemed genuinely overpriced as a whole and…
There is some truth here, but it isn't entirely true. People who get in the market at their peaks, often see multi decade long negative returns (adjusted for inflation). If you bought the market in 1928, you were negative until the mid-50s. If you bought in the late 60's you were negative until the mid-90s. If you bought in the late 90's, you were negative until the mid 20-teens.
We have lived through a few generations of unprecedented economic growth on a global scale. This has wildly skewed our assessment of market performance and its long term behavior.
It is widely understood that such growth is not sustainable, and we are, on a civilization level scale, increasingly bumping into the limits of growth. It is entirely possible that at some point we will enter an inflection point and have unprecedented periods of decline.
Especially in Tech we're overly used to the "inevitable" boom being larger than whatever crash has happened before.
However we never really solved the core problems of the 2008 crash, and have been increasingly propping up our entire economy systems with more and more debt. The only way this can be sustained long terms is limitless exponential growth, otherwise you cannot manage those debts.
They have a term for this kind of article on Wall Street: Trying to catch a falling knife " stocks have been beaten up. It's time to buy now!" Like clockwork, you can count on those stories appearing after a crash.
I 100% believe in market timing. I usually do extremely well during market crashes, and average during market rises. I missed the dotcom crash because I didn't want to invest at all, but caught all of the 2008-2009 crash and went long on the bottom in March 2009, but was mostly average after the crash. I caught the entire pandemic drop in March 2020 and also got long at the bottom, but again was only average for the…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is true that market timing is always dubious. But that also means that there's never a wrong time to invest in the market as a whole. Individual stocks when crashing are dangerous if you can't outsmart the reason they are crashing, but in aggregate stocks will go up by a modest amount on decade long scales. I felt weird about that advice a few months ago, when the market seemed genuinely overpriced as a whole and…
in aggregate stocks will go up by a modest amount on decade long scales. There is some truth here, but it isn't entirely true. People who get in the market at their peaks, often see multi decade long negative returns (adjusted for inflation). If you bought the market in 1928, you were negative until the mid-50s. If you bought in the late 60's you were negative until the mid-90s. If you bought in the late 90's, you we…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
considering how many companies are preparing for a recession, and since i’m reading recession next year in a lot of places, i think this is a bit premature. but time will tell.
the thing about buying the lows is that expectations have to be low for that to happen :) by the time its obvious the stocks will have already recovered. the difficult question to ask is - how much worse could things get relative to current expectation.