From what I understand, Kalshi clears on (or used to clear on) LedgerX/FTX Futures. What made you choose them over, say the CME's ErisX? Have you run into any issues given the recent FTX implosion? Where there any other options you considered and ultimately choose to not move forward with?
Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
121–130 of 185 posts
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#122[deleted]
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#123> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
Without more detail this just sounds like a conspiracy theory. Hiring a former regulator is way too weak a link to conclude that Kalshi are pulling the strings at the current regulator. If PI were operating on the basis of a no action letter they were unregulated pretty much by definition. A no action letter is basically a regulator saying that it won't take action against a market participant for doing things that w…
That is not what a no action letter is.
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#124Am I able to write contracts for events? And if not now, in the future?
No, I don't believe so. Such a feature would need to come from a fully decentralized platform, or one that doesn't operate (legally) in the US (or most of the world, for that matter).
Take a look at Azuro for an example of a decentralized betting protocol: https://azuro.org/
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
this insider article should clear up a few things! https://www.capitolaccountdc.com/p/gambling-on-politics-an-i...
It's paywalled and you not wanting to say anything yourself just smells bad
Indeed. Why not take up Scott Alexander's proposal if there truly is nothing untoward here?
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-81522
> If someone from Kalshi wants to swear, in so many words, “We promise we put no effort into convincing CFTC to quash PredictIt”, I will believe them (although I would still suspect the CFTC was following a thought process like “now that Kalshi exists it would be embarrassing to let less-regulated markets exist alongside it”). Until then, I think cui bono remains the right question.
Here's your chance, 'tmansour: if you didn't do anything wrong, why not say so yourself?
I have no horse in this race or involvement with either party at all; I'm just interested because this feels like quite the betrayal of the usual ethos we'd expect from YC affiliation, and your responses on the topic so far are evasive enough to be a red flag in and of themselves.
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#126Who makes the markets on your exchange?
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#127How do you prevent insider trading? Does your regulation account for that? For example how would you prevent an high ranking NASA employee who knows and/or influences the decision of a moon landing from misusing the platform?
Great question. A few things here. 1. we spent years working with the regulators on defining and building our surveillance systems. They basically ingest data from the exchange and run stats/some ML to flag suspicious trading patterns to an investigation team in our compliance department (similar to when NYSE flags a Goldman trader for insider trading) -- our systems have gotten really sophisticated and you'd be surp…
Isn't insider trading the entire point of a prediction market as an information aggregator?
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#128> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
I think it's unfair to jump to the conclusion that Kalshi is to blame for regulators banning PredictIt. From the link you posted, PredictIt promised the regulators they would: * be small-scale and not-for-profit * be operated for academic and research purposes only It doesn't really say what "small-scale" means, but obviously, if PredictIt keeps being successful and growing, eventually they will no longer be small sc…
What a ridiculous regulatory decision. They have to be "small scale?" So it's ok for anybody to do it, but if too many people actually do it, then no one is allowed to anymore.
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#129> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
This article had a bunch of interesting insider info on what went down (most of it was news to me as well): https://www.capitolaccountdc.com/p/gambling-on-politics-an-i...
Hard paywall. Can you archive it and post a link?
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#130> Kalshi is partnered with LedgerX LLC (d/b/a FTX US Derivatives) How has the FTX debacle impacted you, if at all? https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/11/17/cftc-has-boots-on...
LedgerX is the only entity in the FTX empire that is fully shielded financially by virtue of being federally regulated by the CFTC. These are exactly the types of situations where regulation matters most! We have seen no impact from that fallout and our customer funds are fully separated in a segregated member account held safely at SVB.
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