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Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#81

Post by conformist »

Zufriedenheit wrote: post #52

How do you prevent insider trading? Does your regulation account for that? For example how would you prevent an high ranking NASA employee who knows and/or influences the decision of a moon landing from misusing the platform?

The definition and prosecution of insider trading in CFTC regulated markets has a much shorter history than SEC regulated markets, see e.g.: https://www.hflawreport.com/2550376/cftc-resolves-its-first-... https://www.lw.com/admin/upload/SiteAttachments/Alert%202827...

So, in a way, this is a good and tricky questions that applies much more broadly to non-securities markets (e.g. commodity futures). (IANAL)

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#82

Post by tmansour »

einpoklum wrote: post #68

There used to be betting on horse races, now these guys (well, not just them, but still) let you bet on the results of _human_ races. Will SCOTUS uphold civil right R ? Come make money off of it! Or - hedge your bets, and if the pseudo-democracy gets further downgraded - at least you'll be a little richer, at the expense of the poor saps who believed in "Golden Miller" or "Hoofs of Thunder". Oh, sorry, I meant to say…

That's one view of this - I'd say it's pretty cynical though... Reminds me of how people reacted to insurance when it was first being introduced to the broader population "gambling on human lives/death! terrible!!".

While it's true to some extent, insurance is indeed crucial: one of the counter-parties is meaningfully reducing the risk of catastrophe, or extremely detrimental outcome at the very least.

This can be extended to all sorts of events, including Covid, the economy, politics (Brexit had devastating consequences), hurricanes, etc.

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#84

Post by tmansour »

dibt wrote: post #18

What's HN's stance on tracking links? This post is filled with them. I thought I remember Dang saying something about it.

That's a good point - I didn't really think about this when posting (growth team really wanted those in).

Dang let me know if I should take them down/if they're super annoying.

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#85

Post by tmansour »

pizzalife wrote: post #28

YC are funding gambling companies now? On brand these days I suppose. How the mighty have fallen.

YC has funded a ton of great financial companies eg. Coinbase, One Chronos, etc.

We're a derivative exchange regulated by the CFTC. We're no more gambling than grain futures are!

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#86

Post by tmansour »

throwaway23236 wrote: post #36
tmansour wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the input! We have plans to expand many of our existing markets, and introduce many new markets. Geopolitics is definitely an area we're excited to grow over time. If you have any specific suggestions, please send them our way!

Not sure if this is exactly how it works, but I would love to see things like Who will win the 2024 presidency GOP Dem Or the hundreds of scenarios that could have been bet on during the midterms.

noted - thanks for the suggestions!

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#89

Post by thwayunion »

orangepurple wrote: post #37
barnbuilder wrote: post #31

> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…

Buying out the regulators and making competition illegal is the moat YC needed to invest

Maybe not YC -- that's a strange thesis for seed money -- but it wouldn't surprise me if this strategy flowed from Sequoia; not as a primary investment thesis, or even the primary reason for bribing* a former regulator, but rather as a happy side pot payout.

* Yes, the revolving door is bribery-by-any-other-name. Anger at this type of legalized overt corruption of our institutions is literally ripping the country apart.

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#90

Post by tmansour »

Lionga wrote: post #77
tmansour wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1 on this. This is not how any of us operate. Regulation in this space is really tough and thorough - we've been battling through it for years now (also explains why this post is coming so long after the end of our batch!).

The facts presented above make your company look very shady, and this answer is not clearing up anything. Like this most people will have to assume you really just paid off / bribed Brian Quintenz.

this insider article should clear up a few things! https://www.capitolaccountdc.com/p/gambling-on-politics-an-i...
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