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This sounds a lot like intrade.com, which was popular among my coworkers and myself in the early aughts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade
We're doing a fully regulated, full scale version of Intrade. Regulation allows us to take this to the next level: getting market makers onboard, integrating with brokers, etc.
> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
I think it's unfair to jump to the conclusion that Kalshi is to blame for regulators banning PredictIt. From the link you posted, PredictIt promised the regulators they would: * be small-scale and not-for-profit * be operated for academic and research purposes only It doesn't really say what "small-scale" means, but obviously, if PredictIt keeps being successful and growing, eventually they will no longer be small sc…
Brian Quintenz is a Republican financial manager who was nominated to be a commissioner of the CFTC by Trump in 2017.[1]
During his time at the CFTC, as I recall, there was heavy bipartisan action, which he was praised for.
Well, there's a slightly more cynical take that he was indeed completely crooked.
My memory is foggy, and I don't have time to grab sources just yet as I have a meeting coming up so I'll update this shortly, but he was then turfed out of the CFTC under Biden and promptly hired by Kalshi.
Given his record, it's less of a jump to see what Kalshi is doing as shady, but more of a smoking gun... PredicIt, which had been operating under a no action letter (NAL) from the CFTC since 2014 just happened to have that letter withdrawn a few months after Kalshi raises $30m at a Series A to take their platform live.[2]
From my point of view, this is classic American lobbying mafia style stuff. Prediction markets have been prevented from flourishing for decades, and now that the time has arrived, the crooked CFTC et al have cleaned the house so their chosen startup that they're deeply in bed with can thrive.
The whole thing, quite frankly, stinks.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Quintenz
[2] https://www.pymnts.com/news/international/2022/millions-comm...
Is this U.S. only? Edit: Found the answer, yes "Only US residents are currently accepted."
Will you ever allow for the results of sports to be traded? Why stop at large political events?
How many markets do you anticipate adding next year?
I guess the number of markets we post next year will be a function of how crazy 2023 will be. In some ways, we capitalize on volatility.
Antifragile...
Even as a relatively sophisticated investor (compared to the median) I wouldn't really know how to hedge correctly on these markets.
For example if inflation is high, how many units do I buy. Am I fully hedged, or can I lose the bet AND lose in real life?
I think users need to understand these things to use it. Some of that is education, and some will be tools.
For example, enter your salary, expenses, budget etc, and it recommends a bet, and then shows you the outcomes if you win or lose.
It should be clear that for example YOUR cost of living might go up more than inflation because you buy different things from the inflation basket.
This is a bit like insurance, in the sense you may pay for health insurance, or travel insurance then find your thing isn't covered.
I would also be interested in the tax implications. For example you do a bet to hedge your foreign holdings of say GBP. GBP goes down so you win from the bet and lose in real life. But you still pay tax on the bet (or do you ... ?).
I think this is a cool idea.
I think the more useful idea for the everyday person is something akin to a "1kg of tomatos a week prepaid subscription for 5 years" aggregated over their typical shopping.
That all said trying to tame the future is a hard beast. And expensive to insure yourself against all the things. Especially likely things, like shit getting more expensive!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a fundamental difference between gambling and financial trading. In gaming, you are trading on risks that are artificial, eg. betting on a dice roll or on a roulette spin. Those risks do not need to exist, and they risk solely for the purpose of betting. In the derivatives markets, the risks you're trading on are not artificial, they're already existant. The purpose of markets is to transfer those risks from…
What about sports betting? People would still play those games so the "risk" isn't artificial.
But in a commodity market there are real participants whose primary business model is production, being able to hedge against future price swings provides real value to these businesses.
Just wonderful!