This sounds a lot like intrade.com, which was popular among my coworkers and myself in the early aughts:
Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
41–50 of 185 posts
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#42> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
Buying out the regulators and making competition illegal is the moat YC needed to invest
I have no knowledge about this particular case but that is absolutely not how YC operates or thinks about its business. I've never heard a single comment from anyone at YC along such lines. I'm not moderating this subthread the way we normally would*, but IMO you guys should be more scrupulous about posting snarky smears.
* because https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
(edit: for anyone wondering, I didn't flag the GP comment)
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#43So it's like placing bets? This is branded as if it's some new type of stock exchange when in practice it's just another betting platform, no? Other than fancy UI, how is this any different in practice than oddschecker.com or betway.com (I'm not familiar with those sites, just a quick search)? >inb4 all stock exchanges are betting platforms
An important distinction is that if you are an asset manager (i.e. gambler with other people's money), you aren't allowed on traditional betting platforms--only SEC and CFTC approved ones. Now you can bet on political outcomes with other people's money.
Asset managers aren't restricted to trading things on exchanges unless their docs explicitly say so. Many hedge funds place bets directly with investment banks, through exchanges in the US, overseas exchanges etc.
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#44Will you ever allow for the results of sports to be traded? Why stop at large political events?
This is a pretty well served market at this point.
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
It actually is ideal, given trusted API/Oracles, a timeout period to ensure mis-published data is corrected promptly, and a few other non-obvious gotchas. You could even have trusted middle-men that collect a Fee iff ambiguity is discovered and an appeal is wagered against the escrow. I'm sure it exists and got rugpulled already.
If it is set up so that the users can put in bets and appoint judges, then it can't ever be rugpulled. Individual judges could turn hostile. But if the judges get paid for their work, a great track record might be worth more than any rugpull.
So a person could build trust and society could benefit from their good behavior and they would make money by being trusted?
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#46> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
This article had a bunch of interesting insider info on what went down (most of it was news to me as well): https://www.capitolaccountdc.com/p/gambling-on-politics-an-i...
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Buying out the regulators and making competition illegal is the moat YC needed to invest
I have no knowledge about this particular case but that is absolutely not how YC operates or thinks about its business. I've never heard a single comment from anyone at YC along such lines. I'm not moderating this subthread the way we normally would*, but IMO you guys should be more scrupulous about posting snarky smears. * because https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... (edit: for anyone wond…
+1 on this. This is not how any of us operate.
Regulation in this space is really tough and thorough - we've been battling through it for years now (also explains why this post is coming so long after the end of our batch!).
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#48> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
I think it's unfair to jump to the conclusion that Kalshi is to blame for regulators banning PredictIt. From the link you posted, PredictIt promised the regulators they would: * be small-scale and not-for-profit * be operated for academic and research purposes only It doesn't really say what "small-scale" means, but obviously, if PredictIt keeps being successful and growing, eventually they will no longer be small sc…
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Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#49Why does this need to involve cryptocurrency, if it’s centralized and regulated anyway?
Edit: the crypto part isn’t true
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#50> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
Wow ! .. :)