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I'm a big user of https://predictit.org/ . But they are getting shutdown soon, so this is great. One thing I'd suggest: add pictures to the events. Makes it much easier for me to navigate and identify markets. I.e. a Biden picture next to a Biden event.
Who decides the outcome of each event? The Kalshi team? For example en the Moon landing example, I guess NASA will make press release, but it looks impossible to automate reading it and deciding. (What if the starship colides with the Moon? What if they can't return? What if it explodes 5 seconds after landing? What if it's a joint NASA+ESA project?)
The determination of an event will vary by contract, but are all external sources of validation, listed in the contract up front. For example, the moon landing resolves to yes if NASA announces by X date. GDP is resolved by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Inflation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and so on. Generally, event contracts are legal contracts technically. We have a team that spent a ton of time developing…
This is hand-waving a bit, and not only doesn't address the OP's question (does a fatal collision count,) but is a good example of the ambiguities that could plague any "simple" contract.
I would think for ultimate compliance that Kalshi would be the first order-judges, but if the parties disagreed, these ultimately get decided upon by an actual Judge giving a good-faith determination of the question with a reasonable persons' definition of the terms.
This is branded as if it's some new type of stock exchange when in practice it's just another betting platform, no? Other than fancy UI, how is this any different in practice than oddschecker.com or betway.com (I'm not familiar with those sites, just a quick search)?
>inb4 all stock exchanges are betting platforms
Neat platform. I think geopolitics, currently is, and will likely be a heavy driver of market moving events over the next couple of decades. Any plans to support that space more deeply?
So it's like placing bets? This is branded as if it's some new type of stock exchange when in practice it's just another betting platform, no? Other than fancy UI, how is this any different in practice than oddschecker.com or betway.com (I'm not familiar with those sites, just a quick search)? >inb4 all stock exchanges are betting platforms
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The determination of an event will vary by contract, but are all external sources of validation, listed in the contract up front. For example, the moon landing resolves to yes if NASA announces by X date. GDP is resolved by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Inflation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and so on. Generally, event contracts are legal contracts technically. We have a team that spent a ton of time developing…
>Landing is defined as making contact with the surface of the Moon. This is hand-waving a bit, and not only doesn't address the OP's question (does a fatal collision count,) but is a good example of the ambiguities that could plague any "simple" contract. I would think for ultimate compliance that Kalshi would be the first order-judges, but if the parties disagreed, these ultimately get decided upon by an actual Judg…
Bureau of Labor Statistics could announce a new equation for the CPI next month. Which means the inflation will be calculated to be much lower than everyone expected.
If you're betting on Bureau of Labor Statistics press releases, you just lost your bet just because a human decided to word things differently.
If you're investing in a complicated financial bundle, like actual contracts to buy sell oil, wheat, stocks. Then you could still be winning. Because a single politician can change your win to a loss when you're betting on words (like Inflation as calculated by a person in the US government), but a single human can't lose you money when you're investing in actual equities
This is more like a roulette table than an actual investment