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Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#31

Post by barnbuilder »

> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated.

Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations of the no-action letter.

This is a rotten way to do business and shame on YC for being involved in it.

https://karlstack.substack.com/p/a-textbook-case-of-regulato...

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#33

Post by adamsmith143 »

Why are we acting like this isn't just a prediction market? Also as others have said PredictIt did it first and was fine until you hired a former regulator and got them shut down. Questionable business practices. How long will you survive until the next upstart throws enough money at someone higher up the regulatory chain and you yourselves get shut down??

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#34

Post by [deleted] »

kolbe wrote: post #26
brap wrote: post #23

So it's like placing bets? This is branded as if it's some new type of stock exchange when in practice it's just another betting platform, no? Other than fancy UI, how is this any different in practice than oddschecker.com or betway.com (I'm not familiar with those sites, just a quick search)? >inb4 all stock exchanges are betting platforms

An important distinction is that if you are an asset manager (i.e. gambler with other people's money), you aren't allowed on traditional betting platforms--only SEC and CFTC approved ones. Now you can bet on political outcomes with other people's money.

[deleted]

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#35

Post by [deleted] »

kolbe wrote: post #27
Jerrrry wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Landing is defined as making contact with the surface of the Moon. This is hand-waving a bit, and not only doesn't address the OP's question (does a fatal collision count,) but is a good example of the ambiguities that could plague any "simple" contract. I would think for ultimate compliance that Kalshi would be the first order-judges, but if the parties disagreed, these ultimately get decided upon by an actual Judg…

He did answer. He said if NASA says so, then it's so.

[deleted]

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#36

Post by throwaway23236 »

tmansour wrote: post #25
cdiamand wrote: post #9

Neat platform. I think geopolitics, currently is, and will likely be a heavy driver of market moving events over the next couple of decades. Any plans to support that space more deeply?

Thanks for the input! We have plans to expand many of our existing markets, and introduce many new markets. Geopolitics is definitely an area we're excited to grow over time. If you have any specific suggestions, please send them our way!

Not sure if this is exactly how it works, but I would love to see things like

Who will win the 2024 presidency

GOP

Dem

Or the hundreds of scenarios that could have been bet on during the midterms.

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#37

Post by orangepurple »

barnbuilder wrote: post #31

> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…

Buying out the regulators and making competition illegal is the moat YC needed to invest

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#39

Post by likecarter »

melony wrote: post #19
likecarter wrote: post #8

I'm a big user of https://predictit.org/ . But they are getting shutdown soon, so this is great. One thing I'd suggest: add pictures to the events. Makes it much easier for me to navigate and identify markets. I.e. a Biden picture next to a Biden event.

They are getting shutdown specifically because of Kalshi, see the links in my other comment for some context

Ah, I see. That’s unfortunate. 3 years definitely requires a lot of resources.

They’ll have a monopoly for a bit then. Would ‘t be surprised if Robinhood dips their toes in.

Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events

#40

Post by lacker »

barnbuilder wrote: post #31

> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…

I think it's unfair to jump to the conclusion that Kalshi is to blame for regulators banning PredictIt. From the link you posted, PredictIt promised the regulators they would:

* be small-scale and not-for-profit

* be operated for academic and research purposes only

It doesn't really say what "small-scale" means, but obviously, if PredictIt keeps being successful and growing, eventually they will no longer be small scale. PredictIt was always in a situation where they had to make a different deal with regulators, eventually, as long as they continued to grow.

If you want to blame the CFTC for shutting down PredictIt, Intrade, all of those other prediction markets, then yeah, I agree! I wish they had just been much more permissive long ago. We should blame the CFTC for being too strict. But it doesn't seem fair to blame Kalshi just because they might be the ones to finally convince the regulators to allow one of these.

I hope Kalshi is the group to figure this out, make prediction markets popular, and that prediction markets can finally get the attention from wider society that they deserve.

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