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An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

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Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#81

Post by scruple »

themitigating wrote: post #70
ThalesX wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

It's currently 71f 22c at 19:00 where I live in NY. Historical average for the day is 56f 13c and the high is 74f so only a few degrees off

In SoCal we're having an unusually cool fall so far. Today's high was 68f, it's currently 64f at 5:30PM. I don't think I remember temperatures this low happening in early/mid November in the 15 years that I've lived here.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#82

Post by Fogest »

throwaway932489 wrote: post #68
ThalesX wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

Wikipedia has an interesting note "Cultural influences such as Christmas creep may have led to the winter season being perceived as beginning earlier in recent years" I think I've always considered November to be winter, and at some point I picked up that Christmas is in the middle/even towards the end to break it up and give everyone something to look forward to, so I'm always a bit surprised seeing talk of winter i…

I realized this is exactly what has been happening for me. Because of even how early things like Christmas shows and stores switching into Chrismas mode happens it really does make it feel like Winter is late. But really it's just that culturally Christmas has started happening earlier.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#83

Post by MobiusHorizons »

ThalesX wrote: post #37
veqq wrote: post #3

Commodity traders and investors are very networked and really like such immediate usage news. Many firms also count trucks/traffic near sites etc. so it isn't surprising to see people respond to this. However, the causation is unclear to me. European gas stocks are at full capacity as is and this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far. A 7% drop is par for course in the last few weeks. An extra piece of bad ne…

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

In this case all that is meant is the months during which heating is required. For many parts of Europe this will include a substantial portion of fall months and usually extends into spring. It’s just the easiest way to talk about it.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#84

Post by colechristensen »

ThalesX wrote: post #37
veqq wrote: post #3

Commodity traders and investors are very networked and really like such immediate usage news. Many firms also count trucks/traffic near sites etc. so it isn't surprising to see people respond to this. However, the causation is unclear to me. European gas stocks are at full capacity as is and this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far. A 7% drop is par for course in the last few weeks. An extra piece of bad ne…

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

The part of the year where it is cold does not start on the shortest day of the year. There is the part of the year that is cold and there’s the part of the year between the shortest day of the year and the equinox, both are winter. Winter doesn’t mean a lot in mild places where you can wear a tshirt out most days of the year. Where it snows, winter is more or less the time of the year where it snows.

People need to relax a little about absolute definitions of things.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#85

Post by protomyth »

themitigating wrote: post #70
ThalesX wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

It's currently 71f 22c at 19:00 where I live in NY. Historical average for the day is 56f 13c and the high is 74f so only a few degrees off

We in ND just got our first winter storm and it was bad enough to cancel work. We are not exactly apt to cancel because of snow. I get the feeling this is not going to an easy year on the heating budget.

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#86

Post by Vespasian »

benj111 wrote: post #56
DelightOne wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> meaning they will pay pretty much any price to get it They would buy it at current market rate, which is dropping atm. That's why LNG tankers wait at the coast for a hopefully future higher price.

Aren't they camped out because Europe's storage is maxed out and the winter so far is mild so it isn't using as much gas?

Yes the heating period ist just now starting as it gets colder.

That's crazy late.

In addition Germany for example sees a huge reduction of consumer usage even after accounting for outside temperature.

People are changing their habits in anticipation of increased gas bills (and also nobody likes being blackmailed by Russia).

In April May it will become clear how much was used and what it did cost extra (since most renters get their yearly balance around that time)

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#87

Post by II2II »

colechristensen wrote: post #84
ThalesX wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this Winter is warm with minimal gas burned so far I feel like I'm going crazy as this is not the first time I've seen / heard this argument. What does winter mean? I thought it was the months from December to February. I don't understand the narrative that we're in a warm winter at all . Winter, just like Game of Thrones, is coming.

The part of the year where it is cold does not start on the shortest day of the year. There is the part of the year that is cold and there’s the part of the year between the shortest day of the year and the equinox, both are winter. Winter doesn’t mean a lot in mild places where you can wear a tshirt out most days of the year. Where it snows, winter is more or less the time of the year where it snows. People need to…

In a sense, the astronomical definition of winter has a lot more meaning in a connected world. I grew up in a part of Canada where the (colloquial) winter started at the end of October and ended at the end of March. I now live in a part of the country where it starts in late December and runs until the end of April. If you're trying to convey time by saying that something happened last winter, different people are going to have very different ideas of when that means.

Then again, perhaps we shouldn't be discussing time in terms of the seasons. Anyone in the southern hemisphere experiences the opposite, while people living in equatorial regions don't really share our notions of seasons (from my understanding).

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#88

Post by cf141q5325 »

sveme wrote: post #29
kmonsen wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I have heard the fact that European gas storage is full is nice but not really all that meaningful. The gas storage is only large enough to last a week or something in that magnitude.

The German storage facilities hold gas for two months of typical January consumption rates.

Ownership of that gas is however unclear https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/trotz-voller-speich...

Re: An unconfirmed tweet about Freeport LNG is upending gas markets

#89

Post by dylan604 »

themitigating wrote: post #69
dylan604 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it is just here the same is happening unintentionally by LNG terminal malfunction. with all that is going on in the world, it would be really easy to give into the conspiracy aspect and say intentional malfunction. we've already seen what has been agreed upon as sabotage to underwater pipelines. why not a terminal like this as well? Edit: I'm in no way pushing this as a thing. Just speculating from past experience i…

You've had past experience involving large conspiracies?

oh boy, where to begin? very long story short, yes. yes I have.
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