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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That depends on how noisy or smooth the changes are. That's why it's valuable to look at both.

It may be - but to the above poster's point - if gas went up 20% in Jan of this year and then stays flat... is it helpful to think of prices as "going up" ? It seems misleading.

"is it helpful to think of prices as "going up" ? It seems misleading."

Here you are encountering a common human cognitive failing, which is the belief that there is some sort of objective answer to the question "are prices going up?" that we should all be able to totally agree on, somehow floating in Platonic space without reference to any particular measure of "prices increasing".

The problem is that if you drill down to the question of "what does it mean for prices to be 'going up'?", you must admit to the fact that there are multiple valid definitions of that. It just isn't possible or plausible to create one true definition.

In the presence of that fact, it becomes inevitable that there will be senses in which the price is going up, and senses in which they are not, and senses in which prices are going up more than other senses. That is the reality, which is complicated.

(One propaganda technique is to take one of these numbers, which really exists and is perfectly defensible on its own terms, and then use it in a context in which you know people are generally going to interpret it as one of the other senses of the term. Excitingly, by controlling which "sense" you anchor your listeners to, both "sides" of a debate can push the numbers in whatever direction favors them at the same time.)

According to our nationally-used, generally-accepted metric, if gas is the same price today as it was 365 days ago, inflation is zero. But does that mean the metaphorical person on the street is "lying" if they say prices are generally going up because gas is 20% more expensive than it was three hundred and sixty six days ago? There is a fundamental arbitrariness both to our metrics, and how we all feel about things. I've seen plenty of "How can annual inflation be %8 if my eggs are 2.5x more expensive than this time last year?" posts around lately. The literal answer to that question is obvious, but if someone's expenses involve more eggs than mine, either because their food is a bigger percentage of their home budget or they are a business for whom eggs is a major input cost, they may feel a higher level of inflation than I do, and they're not wrong. They've just got their own inflation metric that disagrees with the national one, but their own metric may well be more relevant to their life than the national one is.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#362
post #80
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

If "inflation is transient" when is it going back to 2/gal?

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#363
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

Which businessman in their right mind will decrease the price of their products because of cost decrease? Not unless there is intense competition. Because of that for large scale monopoly business like commodities once the prices go up it may not come down again.

If you sell commodities that is literally the opposite of a monopoly

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#364
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

If "inflation is transient" when is it going back to 2/gal?

You're making the same mistake. If inflation is transient, the price _increase_ is transient, but the high prices remain. It would only go back to 2/gal if the high prices themselves were transient. Which I really hope is the case, but IDK.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#365
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

If "inflation is transient" when is it going back to 2/gal?

Transient inflation means the $4 / gallon milk prices stick around and don’t go any higher. Going back down to $2 would be deflation.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#366

In many European countries inflation is at 15% If it reaches 20% that means every 3.5 years your cash reserve loses half its value Mean someone correct me if I’m wrong I think that is astounding

I think people are underestimating how much the cost of energy impacts inflation. It used to be primarily labor costs, and labor/wages is still a major part. However with automation some labor is being replaced by automation and thus converts what used to be labor cost to energy cost. European countries are not in great shape from an energy POV.

And yet solar radiation falling on just 1% of Spain, Italy, & Greece - even in the Winter - can power >50% of Europe (and >100% in the Summer).

Europe already gets ~12% of its energy from Nuclear, ~5% from hydro.

Solar energy will not be a problem in the future - neither will sourcing the remaining 33% of energy from other renewables, nuclear, and fossil fuels.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#368
post #80
post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down (that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

It's bullshit because it's an average of everything that no one buys. My grocery bills have doubled since 2020, meaning my CPI was 100% over 3 years. I will not shut up as you and many others are trying to force me into accept it's 10% inflation.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. Conversely, if there was a one-time jump in a particular item, it will take a year before it gets 'removed' from the inflation numbers. Extremely contrived example: if gas/petrol was $1/L in December 2021 (and generally in all of 2021), but $1.20/L in January 2022, then there will be a 20% YoY jump in inflation for the January…

Which is partly what we’re seeing. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in October, or 4.8% seasonally adjusted. That’s above target, but better than YoY.

I agree the annualizing the monthly figure would be handy, as an additional figure. Looking at annualized monthly figures, it was also apparent (say) six months ago, that the monthly annual figures would almost certainly continue to get worse.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#370

Quoted post unavailable.

Shadowstats is bullshit for a number of reasons - you can read up on most of them on the official articles and publications and justifications on the BLS website -- which are generally written by statisticians with maths or econ PhDs with no vested political interest, unlike Shadowstats which is written by an MBA who needs to sell a newsletter. But you can very easily debunk Shadowstats by just averaging the ridiculo…

8% YoY would indeed be a comical amount of inflation. I don't believe shadowstats is implying such an increase.

The reason people don't believe the official CPI numbers is because the CPI numbers are not properly weighted for life or dollar impact. If we look from 1970 the price of health care has increased 54x, a new house has increased 19x, and annual tuition has increased 25x. If the price of milk increases 19x what do I care? I'll just stop buying milk. I don't want to stop being alive, I need a place to live, and I want and need an education.

Even the numbers they do include seem gamed or fake. Shelter shows a 6.9% increase year over year, but the price of houses is up 17% over that same period and the price of rent is up 12-30%. I'm sure there is some ling winded explanation for how shelter excludes such and such thing, but it just loudly screams bullshit for many (most?) Americans.

>And see that consumer goods/services can't have increased by that much or otherwise everyone would be destitute...

I think people are pretty destitute to be honest.

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