Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting • Hacker News Board

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#271

Post by snapcaster » Tue, Nov 08, 2022, 2:30 PM UTC

shapefrog wrote: post #270

snapcaster wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they could have done that without blowing it up right? they control the source of the pipeline. So couldn't they have achieved this goal without taking the bargaining chip off the table and limiting their own flexibility?

It allows/invites a challenge from a weaker leader who suggests selling some gas to get some money. If there is no option and no flexibility there is no alternative, no challenger.

Good thought, hadn't really been considering the internal politics angle of it

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#272

Post by shapefrog » Tue, Nov 08, 2022, 2:48 PM UTC

snapcaster wrote: post #271

shapefrog wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It allows/invites a challenge from a weaker leader who suggests selling some gas to get some money. If there is no option and no flexibility there is no alternative, no challenger.

Good thought, hadn't really been considering the internal politics angle of it

And that goes for every player. Want to be Germany and not have someone outflank you and say 'lets take the cheap gas from russia' - take the gas off the table. Want to be India and still get half off your energy? Want to be the US and get to sell a ton of gas to europe?

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#273

Post by simion314 » Tue, Nov 08, 2022, 3:33 PM UTC

pencilguin wrote: post #224

simion314 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait to gloat until winter is over, there is no rulle that if autumn is worm then the winter is the same, we could be hit with a super cold period of winter, add on top some sabotages from the Ruzzians and a lot of suffering might happen. I hope our countries are increasing the security checks on critical infrastructure.

It is anyway clear that, whatever the weather, Germany will not in fact freeze in the dark.

I hope so, but is this true in the worst scenario too ? I read the news that reserves are full in EU but I did not seen anyone calculating how much would does work if there will be an exceptional cold winter. I know that Romania would have enough for a normal winter and probably enough for Moldova too, but with climate change we could get some very cold weeks ,so I prefer not to gloat until the winter is gone and we all figureout how to survive the next winter.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#274

Post by hackandthink » Tue, Nov 08, 2022, 4:18 PM UTC

reitanqild wrote: post #265

hackandthink wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, this is at least a theory: Putin wants to continue the war. He takes away his possibility of selling gas to Western Europe so that he is not tempted to make peace and sell gas. And his fellows can not be tempted as well. (sounds as crazy as everything else)

Alternative: some group in the FSB or the Russian navy thought it would be impossible to blame it on Russia (for obvious reasons), then went ahead and blew it up to be able to blame it on someone else (UK, US or NATO in general maybe?) Somewhere along the line something went wrong (for them). (Not saying they did it, only that think it is the least crazy of the options I have considered.)

It's a kind of nice mystery, at least nobody died (I hope so). There will be novels and movies.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#275

Post by sidewndr46 » Tue, Nov 08, 2022, 9:14 PM UTC

benj111 wrote: post #220

sidewndr46 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Business people and political leaders in the West are almost universally in favor of the free market. Until it turns out that said free market might mean they get the short end of the stick. That is to say less tax revenue or less profit. When that happens they suddenly insist there must be some of government intervention, otherwise they are too big to fail.

Isn't that like saying people are in favour of free speech. Until someone starts inciting violence. It's still in favour of free speech, just with limits. The same applies to free markets. If they work as promised great. If not someone needs to step in and fix it.

The problem of unbounded free speech is rectified by setting precedent that yelling "fire" in a crowded theater is obviously a criminal act. At least, it works this way in a common law nation like the US. This doesn't really cost anything, beyond criminal enforcement. The public good in this is obvious.

The rectification of free markets in the US somehow involves massive transfers of wealth to private companies from the public sphere. Essentially just to make sure those companies don't suffer an adverse effects from their bad decisions. I'm not sure what the utility to the public is in this. Do we really need companies that only exist because of government handouts. Why didn't we bail out Enron in that case? What about WorldCom? Or was their mistake just having a Canadian as a CEO?

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#276

Post by mushbino » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 3:45 AM UTC

algoatecorn wrote: post #138

Workaccount2 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everybody complains that energy companies manipulate prices to enrich themselves. For some reason though none of them are happy that they can use their inside knowledge to get rich...

Yep, I have friends who think the price at the pump is due to companies like Exxon and their "ability to price gouge". Like what? Yea dude Exxon is so powerful they let their stock freefall for 6 straight years post-2014

What have Exxon and other oil companies profits looked like this year? Have they been hurting or making record profits?

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#277

Post by antod » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 11:17 PM UTC

petesergeant wrote: post #261

antod wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the Crimea annexation was dodgy as hell but as you say more ambiguous. The population had enough imported Russians (and "exported" Tartars) that they could run bullshit referenda and claim the people wanted annexation. The reason the 2022 invasion (compared to Crimea) got the backlash it did from most of the world is that it was so unambiguously clear cut and telegraphed in advance despite Russia's denials they…

> it was so unambiguously clear cut and telegraphed in advance despite Russia's denials they would invade This is selective memory, I think. Most of Europe and Ukraine itself was pooh-poohing the idea of an invasion despite UK and US intelligence loudly insisting it was going to happen.

Not sure what you thought I meant or was selectively remembering, your statement doesn't contradict mine and is just how I remember it too (US and UK playing up vs Europe and Ukraine playing down). Unless you were claiming the Russian denials didn't happen?

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#278

Post by aa-jv » Mon, Nov 14, 2022, 10:39 AM UTC

pavlov wrote: post #101

aa-jv wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The Biden administration has bigger fish to fry and wouldn’t risk such an intervention in Swedish waters just as Sweden is joining NATO. This is a pretty naive perspective - Since when has Sweden ever stood up to the crimes and misdeeds of the USA? Sweden ranks up there with Australia in the "lackey-state underdog to the USA" rankings ..

It's just not worth the Americans' time to be plotting such a thing now. Selling more natural gas is irrelevant to the Biden administration's survival. And there were general elections in both Sweden and Denmark within the past two months — terrible timing for such an offensive CIA operation in NATO waters because any information leak would have handed a potent electoral weapon to anti-American opposition parties. Th…

There is no evidence that the Russians were anywhere near the pipeline around the time it was destroyed.

There is massive evidence that the US and its allies were operating in those waters, and up to something, leading up to the day of the attack.

The idea that the US wouldn't jeapordize its relationship with the Baltic states in order to cut off a vital supply of economic resources to Europe is very, very naive. The US has done far worse to its so-called allies.