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Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

economist.com

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Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#261

Post by petesergeant »

antod wrote: post #236
regnull wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian annexation of Crimea had at least some ambiguity. Yes, it was illegal, but Crimea used to belong to Russia, it had majority Russian-speakers, and there was no violence on any significant scale during takeover. The question was, if they are taking over your territory, why don't you fight back? The answer is obviously complicated (and for the record I fully support Ukraine, and I think Crimea and all other…

Yeah, the Crimea annexation was dodgy as hell but as you say more ambiguous. The population had enough imported Russians (and "exported" Tartars) that they could run bullshit referenda and claim the people wanted annexation. The reason the 2022 invasion (compared to Crimea) got the backlash it did from most of the world is that it was so unambiguously clear cut and telegraphed in advance despite Russia's denials they…

> it was so unambiguously clear cut and telegraphed in advance despite Russia's denials they would invade

This is selective memory, I think. Most of Europe and Ukraine itself was pooh-poohing the idea of an invasion despite UK and US intelligence loudly insisting it was going to happen.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#262

Post by thorin »

efishnc wrote: post #238
thorin wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote the system for National Grid UK LNG storage and trading in the early 2000s. I think they had 6 sites online now. Milford Haven was in progress I believe. Then they gradually started closing them as not required... Same with coal and nuclear plants! LNG is not so easy to store and there were a lot of safety regulations for site visits.

That sounds like fun work! How did you get in that position?

I was part of the research organisation which owned all of the British Gas R&D work going back into the 70s and beyond. I also maintained the software for all the high pressure gas metering sites and converted some of the code and calculations from Fortran and Basic into more supportable APIs. There was a lot of early work on GIS mapping for pipeline management as well.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#263

Post by m000 »

vba616 wrote: post #248
guerrilla wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your friend is right. They literally have record-breaking income right now[1]. It just headlined the FT two days ago. This is also happening with distributors/utilities. 1. https://www.ft.com/content/0d84255c-84ba-4462-b80a-859335285...

There's a Lukoil station near where I live. The price they are charging doesn't differ much from say Exxon/Mobil. Is that because they are colluding?

Of course they are. It is more profitable to hike prices to match your less-efficient competitors and maintain a facade of competition, rather than crushing them to become a monopoly and risk a heavy-handed government intervention.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#264

Post by hnbad »

somedude895 wrote: post #182
kristo wrote: post #165

Don't discount the fact that many europeans are actively trying to conserve and refuse to heat their house until absolutely necessary. I have 65 yr old friends in amsterdam taking spongebaths because they don't want to support russia

Is that just an anecdote though? In Switzerland the govt has been running an energy conservation awareness campaign for about 6 weeks now and the stats say it's had zero effect so far.

I think the problem may be that (at least in Germany, not sure about Switzerland) we've had awareness campaigns about conserving energy and water for ecological reasons since at least the 1990s. I recall learning in school ca. 2000 to turn off the light when leaving a room, to take short showers instead of using the bathtub, to turn thermostats to 19°C or less, to soap my hands before turning on the faucet and to use the water-saving flush after only peeing. This wasn't related to any particular shortage.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#265

Post by reitanqild »

hackandthink wrote: post #243
vkou wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can make sense if you think about it in the game theory manner. Sometimes, deliberately limiting your options improves your overall outcome. One theory is that by blowing up the pipeline, Putin is limiting Russia's options. With the pipeline in place, ending the war would immediately cause the flow of gas, and dollars into Russia to resume. Without the pipeline, ending the war would not cause the flow of gas and d…

OK, this is at least a theory: Putin wants to continue the war. He takes away his possibility of selling gas to Western Europe so that he is not tempted to make peace and sell gas. And his fellows can not be tempted as well. (sounds as crazy as everything else)

Alternative: some group in the FSB or the Russian navy thought it would be impossible to blame it on Russia (for obvious reasons), then went ahead and blew it up to be able to blame it on someone else (UK, US or NATO in general maybe?)

Somewhere along the line something went wrong (for them).

(Not saying they did it, only that think it is the least crazy of the options I have considered.)

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#266

Post by 7952 »

oezi wrote: post #230
shapefrog wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rounded to the nearest meaningful number 0.00 cubic feet of gas was going to flow through those pipes in the foreseeable future. Blowing them up did everyone, on both sides, a lot of favours by ending the whole will they / wont they charade that was taking place on both sides.

I never understood the Northstream strategy on all sides before the war and I don't understand the reasoning for blowing it up either. For Russia to blow up its own pipeline takes away their ability to offer gas in exchange for money and political influence regarding the Ukraine conflict. Why should they want to give up this bargaining chip they worked hard for the last 20 years? The only reason I can think of is tha…

I guess it could have been a quid pro quo for some kind of support from China. It makes a switch to the east more explicit.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#267

Post by oblio »

xenonite wrote: post #251
MomoXenosaga wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah Crimea invasion was basically Sudetenland. Nobody really thought Putin would become completely unhinged.

Could you elaborate your analogy?

Crimea - Sudetenland (Munich Agreement 1938)

Ukraine 2022 - Poland 1939

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#268

Post by oblio »

stevehawk wrote: post #216
MomoXenosaga wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah Crimea invasion was basically Sudetenland. Nobody really thought Putin would become completely unhinged.

Nobody thought Kiev would last past the first 48 hours, least of all Putin.

I didn't believe it at first. I didn't even believe it about 1 week later.

Yet I definitely expected the follow up to be crap for Russia when Zelensky said he's not leaving Kiev and he needs ammo, not a ride.

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#269

Post by snapcaster »

shapefrog wrote: post #192
snapcaster wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would it have been Russia? Obviously we don't know who did, but my thoughts were that Russia would want that pipeline to be available as a bargaining chip to get the rest of Europe to pressure Ukraine to concede. How does blowing it up benefit them?

> How does blowing it up benefit them? Destroy the european economy by starving and freezing people to death, make everyone in europe turn against ukrainian supporting politicians and cut off any support for the ukraine government.

But they could have done that without blowing it up right? they control the source of the pipeline. So couldn't they have achieved this goal without taking the bargaining chip off the table and limiting their own flexibility?

Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting

#270

Post by shapefrog »

snapcaster wrote: post #269
shapefrog wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How does blowing it up benefit them? Destroy the european economy by starving and freezing people to death, make everyone in europe turn against ukrainian supporting politicians and cut off any support for the ukraine government.

But they could have done that without blowing it up right? they control the source of the pipeline. So couldn't they have achieved this goal without taking the bargaining chip off the table and limiting their own flexibility?

It allows/invites a challenge from a weaker leader who suggests selling some gas to get some money. If there is no option and no flexibility there is no alternative, no challenger.
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