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Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How've I not noticed this? I've instead seen a whole lot of graphs with no prediction whatsoever and lots and lots of people in positions of authority who seem totally unable to extrapolate from those in their heads, resulting in idiotic back-and-forth on various restrictions for the first 18 or so months of the pandemic. Shit like schools releasing plans ahead of the school year that they then immediately ignore bec…

My guess is a tone issue. It’s hard to even tell that you’re saying you haven’t seen long term graphs - the first sentence comes across as sarcastic when followed by long sentences complaining about other problems.

I thought:

> I've instead seen a whole lot of graphs with no prediction whatsoever

made it pretty clear, but maybe not. And the rest was expressing that the actual on-the-ground problem I saw, and the single biggest problem with my state & local-level response to the whole thing, was a complete lack of attention to future trends, not too much. But perhaps that doesn't come across very well. Mea Culpa.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've got a busy day so don't want to get into it again -- but I cannot express how incapable the average (even educated!) person is to "do their own research" on something as complex and nuanced as molecular engineering and the probabilities of covid genetic engineering. Even some expert 'pre-reviewers' that received the advance of the most recent bombshell paper that supposedly proved an unnatural virus with lab ori…

No layperson is qualified to understand any advanced technical field these days. Semiconductor fabrication is utterly out of reach for the typical voter, but they still have to form an opinion on the CHIPS act. Most of us aren’t lawyers, but still sometimes need to hire them. This is the dilemma inherent in not having a /u/PhdInEverything. But the answer isn’t “go away and let the grownups decide”, the answer is to t…

It sounds like you and the other person agree (edit: regarding the need to trust experts). You've just chosen to trust different sources of information than the other person.

I agree with the other person though, there is a correlation between people I've heard say "do your own research" and people with less reasonable beliefs. (Hi, mom).

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#113
post #3

I think the Telegraph article ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... ) that this blog post is based on is a better read. It makes clear that the idea that the outbreak will become "out of control" is from an anonymous source, not the leaked documents.

Thanks! changed to that from https://blog.ebola-cases.com/leaked-ebola-projections-uganda....

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a lot more controversy than you’re implying, even among serious scientists, but an HN comment thread is probably not the right place to litigate a complex issue that is also a partisan political football. I’ll leave it at this: I would encourage everyone to do their own research on this and try to look past the elephant in the room of the politics angle.

I've got a busy day so don't want to get into it again -- but I cannot express how incapable the average (even educated!) person is to "do their own research" on something as complex and nuanced as molecular engineering and the probabilities of covid genetic engineering. Even some expert 'pre-reviewers' that received the advance of the most recent bombshell paper that supposedly proved an unnatural virus with lab ori…

> I've got a busy day so don't want to get into it again -- but I cannot express how incapable the average (even educated!) person is to "do their own research" on something as complex and nuanced as molecular engineering and the probabilities of covid genetic engineering.

I don't think you can claim to have consensus on this matter since Dr. Li-Meng Yan who worked at the lab and got the CCP scrub when she went public had been speaking out about this since 2020 after having been in hiding and then fleeing China for her claims. Moreover she detailed how people who worked at the lab in Wuhan have been in retrospect beholden to the CCP for not discussing the poor safety record of the lab.

And your position about how it's not worthy of discussion makes it very clear you speak with a sense of bias because ultimately a conclusive epidemiological study will prove impossible since the floods in Wuhan in 2020 took place that coincided with the CCP's abject refusal to have outside investigators come in and search for the possible origin of the COVID, and even accused the US of creating the virus and spreading it--much how Russia has made to justify it's illegal invasion into Ukraine to de-nazify it and now de-satanize it after claims of US COVID biolabs in Ukraine.

For what's it worth, I have a BSc in cellular and molecular biology, and I was also involved in the plight of the HK people since the Umbrella Revolution, and had people been actually abreast of that situation they would have known that something was going incredibly wrong by November 2019: the CCP/Lam regime forced the protests for the extradition bill (and possibly declare independence the way things were going since the Summer) in HK to be quelled altogether for a fear of contagion of what had been going around in order to prevent the calamity of the Avaian Bird flu that is still in recent memory for many in HK--which was much worse on the mainland than it was in HK because of the abysmal health and safety practices by the CCP.

And had people paid attention, the CCP not only arrested many dissenters and created a massive diaspora in one of the most affluent and well educated countries in Asia that served as an economic hub to the West it got the NSL to pass during this time, it also continued to arrest and intimidate Hong Kong into abject repression all under the pretense of COVID. when they themselves, via the Lam regime, kept the borders open and allowed mainland Chinese to enter HK and their were plenty of recorded footage of them violating covid practices (quarantine) and actively going into public areas and act as vectors (coughing and spitting on elevators), going into restaurants despite quarantine practices etc...

Lastly, Propublica released an investigative piece last month about the lab leak theory [0] under the auspicious of the US senate, which I'm not denying has glaring geo-political overtones; especially given the CCP's saber-rattling towards Taiwan and well documented tyrannical behaviour in Xinjiang and Hong Kong; the latter violated the Sino-British treaty and dismissed international Law which effectively mean it illegally annexed a territory imposed a repressive law (NSL) to suppress any dissent which was to operate autonomously until 2037--which can be seen as hostile as Russia violating both the Budapest Memorandum and the Minsk agreements when it invaded Ukraine in 2014 and illegally annexed and occupied Crimea/Lugansk/Donetsk and has led to full invasion and crimes against Humanity ever since with indiscriminate shelling on civilian areas under the aforementioned pretenses.

I'll leave it here because quite honestly I can't fathom anyone to be so brazenly reductionist in their thinking and claim to have the 'upper hand' when their is clear violations all the way which implicate not just the CCP but the US (via NIH funding) as well for funding the GoF research in Wuhan [1] despite repeated safety record violations.

And on a personal note: it's because the health sciences is filled with people like you that I had to turn to tech in the end. I was sent into such a forlorn depression after a short career in it when I found the Industry is was mainly filled with people who will cling on to any party-line in order to continue their work and research. In retrospect I wish I had chosen something else to give so much of my time, effort and passion had I known how quickly it becomes a way to legitimize the commonly held narratives of the State or a Corporation, and how quickly it willing compromise itself for such short-sighted goals in the process.

0: https://www.propublica.org/article/senate-report-covid-19-or...

1: https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-we-are/nih-director/statem...

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#116
post #89
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you claiming that the lockdowns that happened in the first half of 2020 had zero effect on SARS-CoV-2 infections?

They did not. Florida vs California. read up.

In case anyone would like to actually read up on the impact of restrictions:

States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks (Nov 18, 2020)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-stat...

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. Sure is, which is why it's odd we've been bombarded with endless graphs with months of predictions, over the past 2.5 years.

We have? I’ve certainly been bombarded with graphs showing trends, but six month predictions? Where are you seeing these? Can you point me to some?

[deleted]

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious, when you say "masking works" what do you mean? Because you seem to mean it as "prevents 100% of transmission", and therefore anything less than that means masking isn't effective. And that's simply untrue. Masking does, really, truly, assist with covid spread. It doesn't prevent 100% of transmission, because nothing does, especially something that requires active participation, but yeah it helps a lot if…

As with other actions, it's the relationship between the benefits that something brings versus the costs associated with doing it that determine whether or not it's "working". The costs associated with widespread everyday masking are severe. You even quoted the ones that I'd mentioned earlier. Just to overcome those severe costs, masking would have had to consistently bring astounding benefits. At a bare minimum, tha…

> The costs associated with widespread everyday masking are severe. You even quoted the ones that I'd mentioned earlier.

Yes, and stated that they are, for the most part, not actually costs.

Masks don't cause accessibility problems, they don't cause child development issues, they don't cause social strife when consistently warn and enforced, and they don't cause abusive policing (police don't enforce mask mandates anywhere in the US, and consistently were one of the least compliant groups!).

You can't keep lying about these supposedly "severe" costs when anyone with eyes can see that they're made up. I mean you can, but it's your credibility lost.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#119
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds... wrong? What if the 6+ month forecast assuming no interventions is useful to compel an intervention, and the 2-3 week one is not?

If “useful to compel” is a criteria, we can jump straight to flat-out lying and dispose with the statistics part.

So you're in charge of making decisions. Hypothetically. Your epidemiologists believe that if no action is taken, 10 people will die in the next two weeks, 100 people will die in the next 4 weeks, and 1,000,000 will die in the next 6 months.

Which forecasts would you prefer they keep to themselves?

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#120
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They did not. Florida vs California. read up.

In case anyone would like to actually read up on the impact of restrictions: States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks (Nov 18, 2020) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-stat...

I mean...

> Nov 18, 2020

Looks at deaths per capita, from Jan 2020 to today. The position of peaks is barely relevant compared to their cumulative impact.

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