> Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
Ok. So the gas prices are influenced by the weather ? That explains some things. /s
Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
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Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#92One major theme in the ongoing US-Russia conflict over the past decade-plus (dating back to at least 2008) is a fight over who gets to sell oil and gas to Europe. With the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines, and with countries like Qatar refusing to alter long-term energy contracts to increase supplies to Europe, and with Iran still under the Trump-era sanctions (which Biden continued), that mostly leaves the US…
The US (in 2021) used 827 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year and produced 934. The amount it's expected to send to Europe (45 billion cubic meters) amounts to under 5% of its own production which has been increasing every year. Most of that hasn't even been sent yet so the percentage up to now is even smaller. So yeah this was never about the US selling natural gas to Europe.
You have to add on the 34 bcms to the 45 bcms for a total of 79 billion cubic meters expected to be exported to Europe in 2022. Prices in Europe for gas seem to be about 10X higher than in the USA. Costs of LNG export are also higher, but I imagine the profit return on those European sales is about as large as their total profit on all domestic USA sales (and note domestic prices have doubled as well).
This is pretty basic supply and demand stuff. It's hard not to conclude that a major US goal was cutting Europe off from Russian gas, and replacing that with American LNG. You can find all sorts of quotes to this effect from the US government before 2022:
> (March 2021) "‘President Biden has been very clear, he believes the pipeline is a bad idea, bad for Europe, bad for the United States,’ Blinken says in Brussels"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/secretary-of-state-blinken...
So, if Europe's not going to get gas from Russia, who does that leave? Perhaps the glut of fracked American gas, provided in LNG tankers, instead?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/business/energy-environme...
(Sep 2021) "Natural Gas Boom Fizzles as a U.S. Glut Sinks Profits: Chevron’s multibillion-dollar write-down of gas assets is the most recent sign that the gas supply has far outstripped demand."
These dots are not that hard to connect.
Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
> One major theme in the ongoing US-Russia conflict over the past decade-plus (dating back to at least 2008) is a fight over who gets to sell oil and gas to Europe. No, it wasn't. America wasn't pushing to sell to Europe, and Europe was becoming more and more reliant on Russian and Asian gas. The shift to American gas (and every other country they can get it from) happened after Russia invaded Ukraine and then shut o…
My view is that the split with Putin really started in late 2003, when Putin rejected an Exxon offer to take a controlling stake in Russian oil via the purchase of Yukos, and then jailed Khodorkosky (who was close to various USA interests) on tax evasion charges. Prior to that, Putin got a lot of favorable mention in the US press, he visited GW Bush in Texas, was an ally in the 'war on Terror' etc. If Putin had taken…
There are many things that can lead to international conflict and war: Energy, influence, territory, etc.
The Ukraine war is primarily territorial at any cost, as can be seen by Russia's willingness to lose Europe as a trading partner (including the now uselessness of most of its pipeline network since it was primarily directed to Europe), as well as almost all of Russia's complete surprise (including top government elites and the army brass) at the invasion in the first place. Belligerence from resource grievances fester for decades, and are telegraphed well in advance since pretty much the entire government will be on board before they start. It's also fairly obvious with Putin's continued nationalist rhetoric about reuniting "little Russia", and his continued rhetorical grievances with the West for over a decade. This is an obsession, planned in a way that nails everyone's colors to the mast. The causes for this war are primarily ideological (rebuilding Russia into its fabled great empire), not economic or strategic (although those do play minor roles, as always).
Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#94> Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting Ok. So the gas prices are influenced by the weather ? That explains some things. /s
The weather affects the demand for gas which affects the price. How is this controversial?
Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#95Gas prices plummeting, energy bills soaring. The market will regulate itself. /s
This is because companies buy long term contracts, which are still priced higher than the spot price on the, IMO reasonable, assumption that gas prices will rise again next year as the war continues (and Russia has more options to escalate e.g. cutting TurkStream).
Why would they cut (I assume you mean turn off, not blow up) Turkstream? Did you see the recent dealings between Russia and Turkey to expand those gas transit routes via that direction?
Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
From a deeply cynical perspective, everything in the world is a coincidence, it's just that some coincidences happen so often that betting on them becomes useful, so we give them a name: "cause-effect relationship".
Well yeah, you could say there's no coincidences, but simply an universe where the cause-effect relationships are so incomprehensibly, mysteriously complex that you are forced to dismiss them as just a coincidence ... but now you have coincidences!
So in conclusion - cause-effect relationships can be modeled as coincidences, and coincidences can be modeled as cause-effect relationships... Making them mathematically equivalent.
Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#97Gas prices plummeting, energy bills soaring. The market will regulate itself. /s
People seem to expect the free market to adapt immediately, for consumers immediate benefit. The market will regulate itself, but it may not happen in timeframes that people are comfortable with.
Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
The seriousness of climate change is not lost on me, but your comment is rather heartless. In the UK the 'eating or heating?' question is real for many families this winter. It is fair to say that the warm October was a gift from the gods.
"Heartless" is uncalled for. The warmer weather may mean that fewer people are suffering today, but it is also a symptom of a trend that leads towards more suffering in the future. Is it heartless to think of those people in the future?
It is the poorest who will suffer the most from the unmitigated effects of climate change. It is also the poorest who cannot afford to pay for adequate heating at current prices. If we take the route of "Save the future poor by letting the living poor suffer" we will always be able to justify policies which unfairly impact the poorest in society.
Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#99Mild autumn weather [ and not enough storage capacity to take advantage ] has sent European gas prices plummeting. 90% full in the UK means about a week's worth of gas. In Germany it's about 2.5 months.
In UK it is completely self inflicted, because they got rid of gas storage infrastructure in 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-stor...
Re: Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummeting
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US (in 2021) used 827 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year and produced 934. The amount it's expected to send to Europe (45 billion cubic meters) amounts to under 5% of its own production which has been increasing every year. Most of that hasn't even been sent yet so the percentage up to now is even smaller. So yeah this was never about the US selling natural gas to Europe.
You have to add on the 34 bcms to the 45 bcms for a total of 79 billion cubic meters expected to be exported to Europe in 2022. Prices in Europe for gas seem to be about 10X higher than in the USA. Costs of LNG export are also higher, but I imagine the profit return on those European sales is about as large as their total profit on all domestic USA sales (and note domestic prices have doubled as well). This is pretty…
>You have to add on the 34 bcms to the 45 bcms for a total of 79 billion cubic meters expected to be exported to Europe in 2022.
The 34 was already being exported so it's sort of disingenuous to add it in terms of supply/demand impact.
>Costs of LNG export are also higher, but I imagine the profit return on those European sales is about as large as their total profit on all domestic USA sales (and note domestic prices have doubled as well).
Now you're making assumptions.
>So, if Europe's not going to get gas from Russia, who does that leave?
Transitioning to clean energy, nuclear, etc.
>These dots are not that hard to connect.
Thank you for finally not beating around the bush on what your actual point and angle are.